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Real Madrid vs Liverpool Odds & Prediction – Champions League Picks

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in Soccer News

Mar 14, 2023 · 2:01 PM PDT

Liverpool fans
UEFA Champions League semi-final 1st leg Liverpool v Villarreal Liverpool fans sing prior to kick off Liverpool Anfield Merseyside United Kingdom. (Photo by News Images/Imago/Icon Sportswire) ****NO AGENTS---NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICA SALES ONLY****
  • Real Madrid have a 5-2 lead over Liverpool ahead of their Round of 16 second leg on Wednesday
  • Los Blancos are +130 favorites to win the match in 90 minutes after their comeback victory at Anfield
  • Read below for our full preview, statistics and a Real Madrid vs Liverpool prediction

Reigning European champions Real Madrid hold a commanding 5-2 advantage over Liverpool after their come-from-behind win on Merseyside a few weeks ago. Carlo Ancelotti’s team are again among the favorites in Champions League odds futures, and are as short as -4000 to progress this week in the Real Madrid vs Liverpool odds.

The first leg was an almighty collapse from Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool in a rematch of last season’s final. Liverpool are no stranger to historic Champions League comebacks, but they would need something remarkable at the Santiago Bernabeu to even make Real nervous. Klopp’s team have won just six matches away from home all season and lost away to Bournemouth at the weekend.

Barcelona are the only team to win at the Bernabeu in 2022-23. Los Blancos are set for a third consecutive season reaching the last eight of Europe’s premier club competition.

Real Madrid vs Liverpool Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Real Madrid +130
Liverpool +180
Draw +290

Following such a dominant performance after falling behind in the first leg, Real Madrid are still handed just a 43.5% implied probability of claiming a victory in the second leg with their +130 Real Madrid vs Liverpool odds. Liverpool are slight dogs for their trip to the Spanish capital, sitting at +180, good for an implied probability of 35.7% of pulling the upset in the Real Madrid vs Liverpool prediction.

Odds as of March 14th at FanDuel. Use this FanDuel Sportsbook promo to bet on all Europa League matches.


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Real Madrid vs Liverpool Over/Under and Spread

With seven goals shared between the sides at Anfield, the over/under lands at 3.5 for the meeting under the lights at the Bernabeu on Wednesday.

For all the attacking prowess on display, there is still a +144 price on the over. Under 3.5 goals comes in at -178. Both teams to score is expected to land, as the -205 price indicates. The spread leans towards the hosts with Real -1 priced at +320.

Real Madrid vs Liverpool Preview

Real Madrid ended a three-match winless blip at the weekend with a 3-1 victory over Espanyol. Barcelona has built a sizeable lead in La Liga, and Los Blancos will see the Champions League as their best hope of making this into a successful season. Ancelotti is a specialist in the competition, as was evident throughout their spectacular run to the trophy in 2022.

Liverpool has nothing to lose here. The visitors will have to be on the front foot from the first whistle and hope they can score a couple of first-half goals without reply to make this interesting.

While their loss to Bournemouth was a reminder of what a difficult season it has been, the 7-0 thumping of Manchester United remains fresh in the memory. Klopp will be hoping for a similar showing from his side at the Bernabeu. Such a goal-scoring outburst is certainly possible if Mohamed Salah, Cody Gakpo and Darwin Nunez all hit their best form.

Once again, though, the midfield is the issue for Liverpool. For all the miles in the legs of Luka Modric and Toni Kroos, they are still capable of controlling games at this level.

Real Madrid vs Liverpool Lineups & Injuries

Real Madrid Projected Lineup: Courtois; Carvajal, Militao, Rudiger, Camavinga; Modric, Tchouameni, Kroos; Valverde, Benzema, Vinicius.

Real Madrid Injuries: Mendy, Alaba.

Liverpool Projected Lineup: Alisson, Alexander-Arnold, van Dijk, Konate, Robertson; Henderson, Fabinho, Bajcetic; Salah, Gakpo, Nunez.

Liverpool Injuries: Diaz, Thiago, Gomez, Ramsay, Keita.

Real Madrid vs Liverpool Statistics

Real Madrid
17.4 Shots taken per match 16.2
59.6% Possession 58.6%
69 yellows, 1 red Cards 55 yellows, 1 red
619.6 Passes per match 568.7

Real Madrid vs Liverpool Prediction

This should be a less chaotic match than the first leg. Real will not want this to become as open and will be keen to absorb Liverpool’s pressure before springing counterattacks.

The firepower of the visitors gives them a good chance of getting on the scoresheet, considering Real haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last three home matches, but they will be incredibly vulnerable when Real wins the ball, too. The first leg provided plenty of evidence that Liverpool cannot cope with this Real attack, and the matchup of Vinicius Jr against Trent Alexander-Arnold will be fruitful again for the hosts.

A stellar home record outside of their Clasico meetings is enough for us to back Real to avoid defeat in our Real Madrid vs Liverpool prediction, even if Liverpool gets on the scoresheet.

Real Madrid vs Liverpool Picks: Real Madrid to win or draw and both teams to score (+109)

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