Liverpool vs Real Madrid Prediction, Odds, Lineups – Champions League Best Bets
- Liverpool hosts Real Madrid in the first leg of their Champions League Round of 16 tie on Tuesday, February 21st at 3:00 pm ET
- Liverpool are a dismal 0-1-5 in their last six matches against Real Madrid in the Champions League
- Get more Liverpool vs Real Madrid prediction and odds below
Liverpool vs Real Madrid is a must-watch match in the Champions League this week. Two storied European giants, going head-to-head at Anfield in what should be a thrilling contest when making your Liverpool vs Real Madrid prediction. Now, it is fair to say these sides have quite a bit of zesty history in the past few years. In fact, this match is a repeat of the 2018 and 2022 Champions League Finals, both of which went in favor of Los Blancos. They also played a double-legged Champions League quarterfinal in 2021, which Real Madrid won on aggregate by a score of 3-1.
To say there is animosity in this matchup is probably an understatement. In particular, you can go back all the way to the final in 2018, when Sergio Ramos pulled Mo Salah to the ground, dislocating his shoulder. While Ramos now plays for PSG, the anger and need for revenge lingers. Not to mention, Carlo Ancelotti briefly managed Everton, which adds Merseyside rivalry fuel on this already burning fire. In turn, I would expect a high-flying contest full of goals, tackles and yellow cards in this first leg. All things to consider when breaking down the Liverpool vs Real Madrid odds.
Liverpool vs Real Madrid Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| Liverpool | +135 |
| Real Madrid | +195 |
| Draw | +260 |
Odds as of February 19th from DraftKings Sportsbook. Use this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on this match and claim a unique sign-up bonus.
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Overall, Liverpool are actually the moneyline favorites on Tuesday, with Champions League odds of +135; this equates to an implied win probably of 42.5%. While their record since the restart has been anything but impressive, they are coming off the back of two wins versus Everton and Newcastle in the Premier League. Even though they have not beaten Real Madrid since 2009, it is naïve to think something special cannot happen in this competition, at Anfield in the Liverpool vs Real Madrid picks.
Liverpool and Real Madrid have the third and fifth shortest lines at +900 and +1100, respectively.
In terms of straight value, Real Madrid at +195 is obviously a crazy line for the defending champions. Even with a couple of hiccups to Real Sociedad and Mallorca in recent weeks, you have to expect them to turn up here.
Liverpool vs Real Madrid Over/Under
Again, goals are to be expected in Liverpool vs Real Madrid. Currently, the over on 2.5 total goals sits at -145. You have to go all the way to 3.5 total goals to see value on the over, which does move up to +175. For me, there is a little bit too much risk to make a serious play on the total goal tally in this Liverpool vs Real Madrid prediction, even with Mo Salah, Karim Benzema and Vini Jr. sharing the same pitch.
Liverpool vs Real Madrid Props – Salah Goalscorer Odds
Instead, look for Mo Salah to score in this one, with anytime scorer odds of +180. The Egyptian has had a great Champions League campaign so far, with seven goals to his name on just eleven targeted strikes. Moreover, he will be one of the players performing with a chip on his shoulder, considering he has yet to really make a meaningful impact against the La Liga side. Ferland Mendy will also be missing from this contest, which gives Salah a favorable matchup in David Alaba.
WHAT A COUNTER ATTACK BY LIVERPOOL!
Everton hit the post then 15 seconds later Mo Salah puts it in the back of Everton's net!
📺: @USANetwork #MyPLMorning | #LICEVE pic.twitter.com/NEAXCxfdUp— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) February 13, 2023
Liverpool vs Real Madrid Projected Lineups and Injuries
Liverpool Projected Lineup: Alisson, Robertson, Van Dijk, Gomez, Alexander-Arnold, Fabinho, Bacjetic, Henderson, Jota, Gakpo, Salah
Major Injuries & Absences: Nunez (questionable), Diaz, Thiago, Konate, Arthur, Ramsay
Real Madrid Projected Lineup: Courtois, Alaba, Rudiger, Militao, Carvajal, Camavinga, Modric, Ceballos, Vinicius, Benzema, Valverde
Major Injuries & Absences: Kroos (questionable), Tchouameni (questionable), Mendy, Diaz
Liverpool Returns the Likes of Van Dijk, Jota and Firmino
One thing that does help Liverpool out in this match is the return of Virgil Van Dijk, Diogo Jota and Bobby Firmino. They have been plagued by injuries and were desperate for more attacking depth in recent weeks. With Darwin Nunez listed as a doubt for this one, Klopp still has two wonderful first-choice forwards. Then, Virgil slots right into the back line, which should make Liverpool feel at least marginally more comfortable defensively.
Liverpool vs Real Madrid Statistics
| 2.83 | Goals per game | 2.50 |
| 2.05 | Expected goals per game | 2.20 |
| 1.00 | Goals allowed per game | 1.00 |
| 1.13 | Expected goals allowed per game | 1.28 |
| 56.8% | Possession % | 58.8% |
| 50.0% | Clean Sheet % | 33.3% |
| 18.2 | Shots per game | 19.0 |
| W-W-L-L-D | Recent Form Guide (All Comps) | W-W-L-W-D |
Stats in the table from 2022/23 Champions League play.
Liverpool vs Real Madrid Prediction
All in all, I am going to be bold and take the Liverpool moneyline at +135 in the Liverpool vs Real Madrid best bets. The Reds are catching Real Madrid at a good time in terms of form, and I like them under the Anfield lights. I will double down on this take by also throwing a half-unit on Salah to score anytime in ym Champions League best bets.
Liverpool vs Real Madrid Picks: Liverpool moneyline (+135), Salah to score (+180)
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Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
