- Saudi Arabia faces Mexico in the final set of games for Group C on Wednesday, November 30th
- Saudi Arabia would advance to the knockout stage for the first time since 1994 with a victory
- We give you the Saudi Arabia vs Mexico odds below, plus our best bet and prediction
Most would’ve believed Saudi Arabia and Mexico would find themselves in the opposite position for their final Group Stage encounter at the FIFA World Cup. For Saudi Arabia, it’s simple, a win over the Mexicans ensures a spot in the Round of 16, while for Mexico, a victory is the only result that will even give them a chance to advance.
Kickoff for this game is scheduled for 2:00 pm ET from the Lusail Stadium. The Middle Eastern side have come down slightly after their Cinderella upset over Lionel Messi and Argentina, losing 2-0 to Poland in their following game.
For Mexico, due to tiebreaking scenarios, only a win by four or more goals over Saudi Arabia guarantees qualification. That’s part of the reason they have been installed as favorites in the World Cup odds against The Green Falcons. Our pick and the Saudi Arabia vs Mexico odds can be found below.
Saudi Arabia vs Mexico Odds
Odds as of November 29th at BetMGM. Use this BetMGM Sportsbook promo code to bet on all World Cup games.
Gerardo Martino’s side can take some comfort in the fact that they have four wins and a draw from their five all-time meetings with Saudi Arabia, but the most recent of those came over 20 years ago in 1999, so the Mexicans probably can’t put too much stock in that statistic.
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Over/Under and Spread
There’s only one way for Mexico to avoid missing the knockout stage of the World Cup for the first time since 1990 and that’s to win and score a lot of goals. El Tri will have to change their approach having scored zero goals from their first two matches.
Oddsmakers may have accounted for Mexico’s need for goals when setting odds for the total in this game. The over/under is set at 2.5 goals with the over listed at -133, compared to the under at -108. We know how El Tri has to play this match, and it’ll be interesting to see how Saudi Arabia counters.
Saudi Arabia vs Mexico Preview
The whole world was likely stunned by what most consider to be the biggest upset of this edition of the World Cup so far when Saudi Arabia defeated one of the favorites, Argentina, 2-1 in their opener. Having said that, the Arab side likely won’t be satisfied if that remains the high point and they don’t progress.
2-1 Saudi Arabia.
THEY HAVE TAKEN THE LEAD VS ARGENTINA WITH AN ABSOLUTELY SENSATIONAL GOAL!!!!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/Oy9Ubocuiv
— 𝐀𝐅𝐂 𝐀𝐉𝐀𝐗 💎 (@TheEuropeanLad) November 22, 2022
A 2-0 defeat to Poland a few days later put their odds of heading to the knockout stage up in the air. This does seem like a different national side compared to previous Saudi World Cup entrants. Although they fell to Poland, they carried play for much of the match, generating more shots and keeping possession for 64% of the game.
Saudi Arabia vs Mexico Head-to-Head Stats
|51||FIFA World ranking||13|
|Round-of-16 (1994)||Best World Cup Finals||Quarterfinals (1970 & 1986)|
|1-0-1||Group A record||0-1-1|
|2 / 3||Goals For / Against||0 / 2|
|3rd||Position in Group A||4th|
|L-W-L-D-W-D||Form guide (all comps.)||L-D-L-D-W-L|
For Mexico, it definitely appeared as if they were playing for a draw against Messi and Argentina in their second match after a nil-nil draw with Poland in their first contest. The cautious defensive approach failed to pay dividends when Messi broke the game open with a goal in the 64th minute.
It seemed to be a different side from the one that was on the front foot, but just couldn’t find the right finish against Poland. Now, Mexico will have no choice but to go for goals in abundance if they are to have any chance of advancing.
Saudi Arabia vs Mexico Projected Lineups & Injuries
Saudi Arabia projected starting XI: Alowais; Abdulhamid, Al-Amri, Tambakti, Al-Ghanam; Kanno; Al-Buraikan, Al-Abed, Al-Najei, Al-Dawsari; Al-Shehri
Saudi Arabia injuries & absences: Abdulelah Al-Malki (Suspension), Mohammed Al-Burayk (Calf), Yasser Al-Shahrani (face), Salman Al-Faraj (shin)
Mexico projected starting XI: Ochoa; Sanchez, Moreno, Montes, Gallardo; Herrera, Alvarez, Chavez; Lozano, Jimenez, Vega
Mexico injuries & absences: Andres Guardado (Muscular issue)
While mainstay, Andres Guardado’s status for Mexico is up in the air, it’s The Green Falcons who are really suffering a war of attrition as this tournament proceeds.
Starting fullback Yasser Al-Shahrani is out for the remainder of the World Cup after suffering a scary injury in a collision with his keeper in the opening match, while another fullback, Mohammed Al-Burayk may also be out with a calf issue. They’ll also need replacements in the midfield as well after Abdulelah Al-Malki picked up his second yellow card last game.
Saudi Arabia vs Mexico Prediction
Getting a result in this contest would be a remarkable achievement for the country from the Arabian Gulf. It’s not to discount them, especially after the stunner against one of the tournament favorites, but they’ll have a few starters unable to play in this one.
— Selección Nacional (@miseleccionmx) November 29, 2022
Goal fests have not been a theme of the 2022 World Cup so far, but an end-to-end encounter should be on the menu here considering what Mexico needs to get to the next stage. Saudi Arabia always carries a threat in the final third with Al-Dawsari, who had that incredible winning strike against Argentina, but we believe Mexico will not finish this tournament without finding the goal.
The likely addition of striker Raul Jimenez to the starting XI, pushes the expectation that there will be over 2.5 goals in the Saudi Arabia vs Mexico odds. Our prediction is El Tri to claim their first victory of this tournament in a game that should have quite a few goals.
Pick: Mexico -148; Over 2.5 Goals -133
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