Serie A Matchday 35 Odds & Picks: Sassuolo vs AC Milan, Parma vs Napoli & More

• Serie A’s Matchday 35 kicks off Tuesday afternoon with two matches, followed by six on Wednesday and two on Thursday
• Roma, Napoli and AC Milan battle for Europa League positions
• Read on for the full Matchday 35 odds as well as our best bets for the week

Just four rounds remain in Serie A and after Juventus defeated Lazio on Monday afternoon 2-1, they’ve now all but officially locked up the title. Juve are eight points clear of second-place Inter Milan, nine ahead of Atalanta and 11 above Lazio.

Sometimes I wonder if I should mix up my bets and not bet so many totals in Serie A—then I check the stats again and think why change a good thing?

Round 34 once again saw plenty of goals, 33 to be exact, with 9/10 matches seeing both teams scoring and ‘Overs’ going 7-3. In fact, just one team failed to register a goal last round (Torino, 2-0 loss to Fiorentina) and simply betting both teams to score in any Serie A match is now 59-25 since the restart. I think we have a few more matches where we could see some goals in this week’s midweek action.

Serie A Matchday 35 Odds

All odds taken July 20

Pick 1: Sassuolo vs AC Milan

Two teams side-by-side in the table, AC Milan seventh/56 points and Sassuolo eighth/48 points meet at 3:45 pm EST at Milan’s San Siro Stadium Tuesday afternoon.

Milan has been the dominant team in this meeting to no surprise, with Sassuolo not winning since March 2016. Since that time Milan are undefeated with a record of 5-2-0. One of those draws was the most recent matchup earlier this year, a 0-0 draw in December.

The situation of #SerieATIM after matchday 34. #WeAreCalcio pic.twitter.com/3mu1UJdCvL

— Lega Serie A (@SerieA_EN) July 20, 2020

That result though came at a different time, pre-lockdown and during a time when Sassuolo won just once during a stretch of eight games, and Milan, during a stretch where they were winless in three with zero goals.

Post-lockdown, goals have been coming freely at both ends for each team.

Sassuolo have just a single defeat since the restart, a 4-1 loss to Atalanta. They are 4-4-0 since and their matches have seen an average of 4.55 goals per game in their nine games since the restart. That’s included strong showings against top sides Inter Milan (3-3 draw), Lazio (2-1 win) and Juventus (3-3 draw). The goals did dry up slightly on Saturday, when they drew 1-1 to Cagliari, only the second time in nine matches they failed to score multiple goals. It was also the first time a Sassuolo match had fewer than three goals.

The votes are in! 📢
Rebić has done it again: he's the #MilanBologna @emirates MVP

Avete votato Rebić come MVP della sfida di ieri sera.
Ennesima grande partita per Ante! 👊🔴⚫#SempreMilan pic.twitter.com/CYgUC4tGpw

— AC Milan (@acmilan) July 19, 2020

That’s a trend that could be set to resume on Tuesday. Maybe the only team hotter than Sassuolo and also Atalanta in the league, are the Rossoneri who are yet to taste defeat since restarting. Milan are 6-2-0 and are surging towards a Europa League spot, chasing down Napoli and maybe even Roma for a spot in the top six.

Saturday’s 5-1 thrashing of Bologna has now seen them outscore their opponents 25-9 in eight recent matches. The goals are coming from all over as well, as five different scorers found the scoresheet on Saturday and none of which even came from Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Ante Rebic has hit his purple patch with five goals scored during the run, to go along with two assists. Clean sheets have been elusive though as Milan have conceded in six of eight.

There are a couple of ways I would bet this one. The safest, is to expect goals, and while the price isn’t great, both teams scoring and OVER 2.5 goals can be had for -165 odds. As good as Sassuolo has looked, Milan may be just a bit better and betting a Milan win and both teams scoring will net you a better return at +210.

Pick: BTTS & OVER 2.5 (-165)

Pick 2: Parma vs Napoli

At 1:30 pm EST on Tuesday afternoon, 14th-placed Parma hosts sixth-place Napoli.

For some reason a Napoli win this past weekend at home to Udinese just looked too easy. And it almost did prove to be wise to stay away from the low hanging fruit. Udinese found the scoresheet first, though Arkadiusz Milik leveled the score before the half at 1-1. The score remained that way until the dying seconds when Napoli’s Matteo Politano scored in the 94′ minute of stoppage time.

Napoli are now 5-2-1 since the restart but have conceded in seven-straight. the table shows they are in a tight race for the Europa League, however as winners of the Coppa Italia, they have already qualified. Thus, outside of a strong finish and staying sharp for August’s Champions League play, technically, there is nothing on the line.

Highlights: #Napoli 2-1 #Udinese

Matteo Politano completed the comeback from Rodrigo De Paul’s Udinese opener, giving Napoli victory deep into stoppages https://t.co/k4LRaHyG2G #NapoliUdinese #SerieA pic.twitter.com/vzmm9pSrMK

— footballitalia (@footballitalia) July 19, 2020

Poor Parma. Despite being mid-table with little to play for, they have consistently put up exciting results for neutrals since the restart. They’ve scored 15 goals in their eight games back, good for seventh overall. The problem? They’ve conceded 19, which is tied for fourth-worst.

Their matches have been wild, as both teams have scored in all nine, and OVER 2.5 goals have been scored in 8/9. In fact, their past three matches have seen five, four and four combined goals. On Sunday they jumped out to a 2-0 lead over Sampdoria and looked to be on course for just their second win since the restart. Not so fast. Sampdoria emerged from half-time a completely different team and scored goals in the 47′, 69′ and 78′ minutes to complete the comeback and win 3-2. Parma are now winless in seven and 1-2-6 since restarting.

No one in particular for Parma has stood out, but they are finding goals across their lineup as each of Juraj Kucka, Gervinho, Dejan Kulusevski and Jasmin Kurtic have each scored twice since restarting.

Earlier this season Parma were 2-1 winners in Napoli, while last season Napoli won 3-0 and 4-0.

Napoli look to be without Milik (red card) and also Dries Mertens (injury) so could be lacking some firepower without their top-two strikers. But I just can’t trust Parma’s defense to keep a clean sheet.

Simply backing both teams to score at -134 looks good enough to me. Over 2.5 goals on its own can be had for -150. But for a little extra value, both teams scoring and OVER 2.5 goals will give you a little more bang for your buck.

Pick: BTTS & OVER 2.5 (+105)

Pick 3: SPAL vs Roma

Roma travels to SPAL’s Paolo Mazza Stadium on Wednesday at 3:45 pm EST looking to hold onto their spot in fifth in the Serie A table and direct qualification into the Europa League.

Roma had won three-straight matches and looked poised to make it a fourth late into their match against Inter Milan on Sunday. Leading 2-1 late into the match, an 88′ minute PK goal by Romelu Lukaku would allow Inter to escape with a share of the points and a 2-2 draw. Roma need the points as they are just two ahead of both Napoli and AC Milan for Europa League group stage qualification, and both of those sides have been strong of late.

🛡️ A rock at the back
🌪️ Dynamic in midfield
🪄 In form going forward

Analysis of three of our top performers from #RomaInter last night ➡️ https://t.co/iuPdlHALa8 pic.twitter.com/2S7IGBvhG1

— AS Roma English (@ASRomaEN) July 20, 2020

SPAL looks like they never returned from the lockdown. Outside of one surprising 2-2 draw result with AC Milan six matches back, they have been dreadful. SPAL are 0-1-7 since they returned to play and have been outscored 20-4. Prior to this weekend’s result, they had been held off the scoresheet four-straight matches. On Sunday, they did score. However, the result was much the same. This time, a 2-1 loss to fellow relegation side Brescia who had been porous themselves since returning.

Oddly, SPAL defeated Roma on both occasions last year, 2-0 and 3-1, but Roma were the 3-1 victors earlier this season. SPAL’s race is run. They’re rooted at the foot of the table, just waiting for the season to end, while Roma still has everything to play for. I’m betting Roma on the spread.

Pick: Roma -1.5 (-115)