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Serie A Week 5 Odds & Picks: Lazio vs Bologna, Benevento vs Napoli & Parma vs Spezia

Lazio
Lazio are coming off a big Champions League win over Dortmund in midweek and will be hoping to follow that up with another win over Bologna this weekend. Photo by @OfficialSSLazio (Twitter)
  • Serie A Week 5 begins on Friday with Sassuolo hosting Torino and nine more matches over Saturday-Monday
  • Two out of four weeks in this season have already seen over 40 combined goals scored
  • Read on for the odds and best bets from Serie A Week 5 below

Week 5 in Italy’s Serie A kicks off on Friday with ten matches this weekend. Several teams are coming off midweek action in the Champions League and Europa League and will do so again next week. So be sure to check the starting lineups for possible rotation before placing any bets.

AC Milan sits alone at the top with 12 points through four matches and will host Roma on Monday afternoon. While two teams, Crotone and Torino have still yet to pick up a win on the season.

Goalscoring in Serie A has continued to be coming at an impressive rate—the highest of any European league so far. Two matchdays (Rounds 2 and 4) saw a combined 43 and 41 goals scored respectively. With 139 total goals scored in 38 matches so far (not counting Juve’s 3-0 default win), there is currently an average of 3.66 goals being scored per Serie A game. You could bet an UNDER, but you really need a good reason to do so. Last week a bet on both teams to score went 8-2, as did bets on OVER 2.5 totals.

Let’s take a look at the odds for each game this weekend along with our top picks from the slate below.

Serie A Week 5 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Sassuolo vs Torino -188 +375 +425
Atalanta vs Sampdoria -250 +450 +550
Genoa vs Inter Milan +700 +400 -275
Lazio vs Bologna -143 +300 +350
Cagliari vs Crotone -110 +275 +280
Benevento vs Napoli +750 +425 -334
Parma vs Spezia +100 +240 +270
Fiorentina vs Udinese -138 +260 +375
Juventus vs Verona -275 +400 +650
AC Milan vs Roma +115 +400 +650

All odds taken Oct 22 at Bet365

Pick 1: Lazio vs Bologna

Lazio, currently in 15th-place in Serie A hosts, Bologna, 16th, at 2:45 pm EST on Saturday afternoon.

Bologna has not started their 2020/21 campaign in style, with just one win in four, and sitting 16th in the table at 1-0-3. On the road, they’ve already been shut out by AC Milan (2-0) and even Benevento (1-0). They are coming off a thrilling 4-3 defeat to Sassuolo last weekend which saw them leading 2-1 at the half and 3-1 one hour in. This, before allowing two goals in ten minutes for Sassuolo to draw, and finally conceding an own goal in the 77′ minute to fall in defeat.

There are some positives for Bologna though. They actually rank eighth in xG at 6.4, seventh in attempts on goal with 57 and fourth in shots on target with 25. They are also first in Serie A in corner kicks with 29 and fourth overall in final third touches. Outside of xG where Lazio ranks just ahead at 6.7, Bologna holds the edge in each of these categories over Lazio.

 

Lazio does not have a deep squad and that was made very evident when they faded down the stretch last season in their title run. It’s still early, but a 1-1-2 record after four rounds would only see the most die-hard and positive Lazio supporters expecting a similar title push this season. Of course, they’ll be aiming for another spot in Europe next season, but right now they have this edition of the Champions League to deal with.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see some rotation in Simone Inzaghi’s squad this weekend. Lazio played last weekend, in the Champions League on Tuesday and need to be prepared for another Champions League clash on Wednesday in Belgium against Club Brugge.

On Tuesday, Lazio was impressive in their 3-1 win over Borussia Dortmund at home in the Champions League. They took an early lead six minutes in and took a 2-0 lead from an own goal going into the half. While Dortmund cut the lead to one in the 71st, Lazio added a third just minutes later.

It was a positive showing from Lazio who have failed to win in three league matches, coming off a 3-0 loss to Sampdoria, 1-1 draw with Inter and 4-1 loss to Atalanta.

Both teams scoring looks probable (-175), but Bologna may in fact take something from this match. A draw offers great value at +300, but I’ll add some insurance and take the ‘Double Chance’ on a win or draw for the I Rossoblù.

Pick: Bologna – Double Chance (+110)

Pick 2: Benevento vs Napoli

Benevento is quickly becoming one of my favorite teams to bet in Serie A. They are everything I look for when betting Serie A, as well as other leagues. A team very capable of scoring, yet unable to keep things tight at the back. They’ll host fourth-place Napoli at 9:00 am EST Sunday morning.

Benevento has allowed the most goals in the league with 12, however, a return of eight goals scored is tied for seventh overall. Their scorelines have read 3-2 (W), 5-2 (L), 1-0 (W) and 5-2 (L). Each of those losses were by heavy scorelines. However, each were against top-flight teams in Roma and Inter Milan, proof that they are at least capable of scoring against some of the league’s top sides.

Benevento is actually outperforming their metrics, as their xG sits at only 5.4. None of their goals have come from penalties either, as one of several teams to still have not been awarded a PK.

Napoli is flying this season, with their only blip being out of their control when health authorities forbid them from traveling to face Juventus in Round 3, resulting in a 3-0 forfeit and point deduction. They responded with a convincing 4-1 win over the previously undefeated Atalanta where they were up 4-0 before halftime.

Otherwise, Napoli is undefeated in the league with three wins: 2-0 over Parma, 6-0 over Genoa and 4-1 over Atalanta. Hirving Lozano with four goals has also gotten off to a hot start, currently holding a share of the scoring lead with two goals in each of his past two matches.

In midweek, Napoli was involved in the Europa League Group Stage where they fell to Dutch side AZ Alkmaar despite fielding a lineup heavy in regulars. Not a great result, especially considering they held 73-percent possession, as well as the edge in attempts 20-6, and shots on target 6-2. Regardless, Napoli’s offense should be able to get back on track in league play this weekend against Benevento.

If -150 odds are enough for you, both teams scoring should be in play, so too is both teams scoring and OVER 2.5 goals at -120.

But combining a Napoli win and both teams scoring at +150 odds looks to offer the most value.

Pick: Napoli Win & Both Teams to Score (+150)

Pick 3: Parma vs Spezia

These teams have both gotten off to slow starts with Spezia, the newcomers to the league ranking 14th with four points and Parma, sitting in 18th with three points. The two will meet at 9:00 am EST on Sunday.

Parma’s form has been poor for some time though, suffering through a seven-match winless streak in the summer, before finishing with wins in three of four. However, two of those wins came against Brescia and Lecce, two teams who suffered relegation last season. Both of those sides were able to breach Parma’s defense, Lecce, on three occasions.

That may have been last season, but with the shortened offseason it wasn’t too long ago. Parma’s leaky defense has already allowed nine goals in four matches. Considering they defeated Verona 1-0, that means all nine actually came in three matches. Three came in their last match against Udinese, a 3-2 defeat. The result is more concerning for Fabio Liverani’s men considering Udinese had previously been shutout in each of their three matches.

All told, that 1-0 win was the only time in 18 previous matches which Parma has kept a clean sheet. They do score their share of goals though, also scoring in 16 of those 18 matches.

And while they are one of the division’s lowest scorers so far with four goals, they should have their chances at home to a Spezia side which has conceded nine goals of their own in four matches. Spezia has conceded five goals in their past two matches, a 3-0 loss to AC Milan and a 2-2 draw with Fiorentina on Saturday. The nine goals Spezia have conceded also underperforms their 18th-ranked xGA of 8.2.

I think this is a match where both teams will expect they can take points and I don’t trust either defense to keep a clean sheet. Both teams scoring and OVER 2.5 goals will give a plus-money return at +125, but simply backing both to score will still offer a modest return.

Pick: Both Teams to Score (-125)

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