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Stuttgart vs Hamburger Odds & Prediction – Bundesliga Relegation Playoffs Leg 1

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

May 31, 2023 · 12:00 PM PDT

Bundesliga Matchday 27
Bayern's David Alaba, left, challenges Stuttgart's Waldemar Anton during the German Bundesliga soccer match between FC Bayern Munich and VfB Stuttgart in Munich, Germany, Saturday, March 20, 2021. (Matthias Schrader/Pool via AP)
  • It’s Stuttgart vs Hamburger in the first leg of the Bundesliga playoff on Thursday, June 1
  • It all kicks off in Stuttgart’s Mercedes-Benz Arena at 2:45pm ET
  • Find our prediction below, where we look at the odds and offer some picks

It’s Stuttgart vs Hamburger in the first leg of the Bundesliga promotion/relegation playoff on Thursday, June 1, with kick-off in the Mercedes-Benz Arena at 2:45pm ET.

Stuttgart finished 16th in the Bundesliga and so will be desperately hoping to maintain their top-flight status after a disappointing campaign, while 2.Bundesliga’s Hamburger are aiming to return there after a five-year absence.

We preview our Stuttgart vs Hamburger picks, look at the odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and predictions below.

Stuttgart vs Hamburger Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Stuttgart -155
Hamburger +350
Draw +320

Stuttgart start as the bookmakers’ odds-on favorites at -155, with an implied win probability of 61%, while their visitors are listed at a much more generous +350, implied at 22%.  The draw is also nicely priced at +320 in the Stuttgart vs Hamburger odds and is implied at 24%.



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Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook on May 31.

Stuttgart vs Hamburger Over/Under and Spread

With the tipping point set at 2.5 goals, the bookies have listed the under in plus money at +125 and the over at a much less appealing -170. By implication, they are anticipating an open game with several goals.

Stuttgart vs Hamburger Preview

Stuttgart’s current coach, Sebastian Hoeness, their fourth (!) of the season, only arrived in the hot seat in April but had an immediate impact, almost saving them from having to playoff for their Bundesliga status.

Die Roten were bottom of the table when he took over but in his nine games in charge, they won three and drew four, picking up 13 points.

Hoeness Almost Saves Die Roten

A win on the final day against Hoffenheim would have guaranteed their top-flight status for next season, but they ended up drawing 1-1, which left them one point adrift of safety. The week before they had given themselves a great chance of survival with a thumping 4-1 away win over Mainz 05.

Historically, the top-flight team holds the upper hand in this annual fixture, with the Bundesliga team retaining its place in 18 of the last 24 seasons.

Hamburger Within a Whisker of Automatic Promotion

Hamburger coach Tim Walter has a huge job on his hands to lift his players after they went agonizingly close to gaining promotion without the need for a playoff.

A 1-0 away win against Sandhausen last weekend looked to have secured their Bundesliga place – their fans were even celebrating on the pitch – but rivals Heidenheim scored twice in added time against Jahn Regensburg to turn a losing position into the win they needed for automatic promotion.

The Best Away Record in 2.Bundesliga

This is Hamburger’s second successive attempt at promotion to the Bundesliga via the playoff – last season’s ended in disappointment when they were beaten 3-0 by Hertha Berlin over the two legs – but in their favor ahead of this first leg is the fact they had 2.Bundesliga’s best away record in the regular season, with 30 points from their 17 games.

On a less positive note, Die Rothosen have a grim record in Stuttgart, where they have lost nine of their last 13 games in the Mercedes-Benz Arena.

Stuttgart vs Hamburger Team Lineups and Injuries

Stuttgart Projected Lineup: Bredlow, Mavropanos, Anton, Ito, Vagnoman, Karazor, Endo, Sosa, Mvumpa, Fuhrich, Guirassy.

Injuries & absences: Zagadou, Kastanaras.

Hamburger  Projected Lineup: Fernandes, Heyer, David, Schonlau, Muheim, Reis, Meffert, Benes, Konigsorffer, Glatzel, Dompe.

Injuries & absences: Katterbach, Vuskovic.

Stuttgart vs Hamburger Head-to-Head Stats

7-12-15 (16th) Bundesliga / 2.Bundesliga record 20-6-8 (3rd)
45 / 57 Goals for / against 70 / 45
50 Possession (%)* 58
83.1 Successful passes (%)* 85.3
DWWDDL Form Guide (all comps) LWDDDL

* Stats from Bundesliga official site.

Stuttgart vs Hamburger Prediction

The two-legged nature of these playoffs makes it doubly difficult for the 2.Bundesliga team to succeed, but this one looks like being closer than last season’s.

Hamburger’s good form on the road makes this one particularly interesting, and if they can keep it tight early on they could escape with a low-scoring draw. For me, that’s where the value lies.

Stuttgart vs Hamburger Picks: The draw (+320) / Under 2.5 goals (+125)


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