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Toronto FC Move up to 4th in the East; See MLS Cup Odds Shorten to 20-1

Greg Vanney
Greg Vanney's TFC have played themselves back into the MLS Cup reckoning. Photo By @TorontoFC (Twitter).
  • Toronto FC are unbeaten in seven league matches
  • They’ve seen their MLS Cup odds shorten to +2000
  • Toronto FC were at odds of +3700 to win the MLS Cup as recently as August 19th

Don’t look now MLS but Toronto FC are coming. That big red menace looming in the rear-view mirror of the leading contenders is none other than the 2017 MLS Cup champions.

Sunday’s 3-2 victory over the Colorado Rapids improved the Reds to 3-0-4 in their last seven matches. The side is 5-0-4 in the last nine games if you factor in a pair of victories over the Ottawa Fury in the Canadian Championship semifinals.

The sportsbooks have taken notice. Toronto FC is now listed at an average of +2000 in the MLS Cup odds.

2019 MLS Cup Odds

Team Odds
Los Angeles FC +150
New York City FC +450
Atlanta United FC +1200
Philadelphia Union +1200
Seattle Sounders FC +1400
New England Revolution +1800
San Jose Earthquakes +2000
Toronto FC +2000
Los Angeles Galaxy +2200
Minnesota United FC +2200
New York Red Bulls +2200

Odds taken on 09/18/19.

The Reds were +3700 to win the title as recently as August 19th.

Toronto FC Stopper Gonzalez

If there’s a turning point to be determined in the Toronto FC season, it might be what unfolded on June 3. That day, TFC utilized its first allocation ranking to sign US international defender Omar Gonzalez using TAM (Targeted Allocation Money).

Gonzalez wasn’t eligible to join the club until the opening of the next transfer window on July 9. But once he got to BMO Field, Gonzalez helped close off a path to Toronto FC’s goal area.

They are 8-2-4 with him in the lineup. TFC has posted three clean sheets and conceded only one goal in seven other matches with Gonzalez, 30, anchoring the back four.

In 2012, Gonzalez was named MVP of the MLS Cup while playing for the Los Angeles Galaxy.

Anatomy of a Streak

On paper, seven in a row without a loss is impressive. In reality, if you dig a bit deeper, it is not.

Only one of the seven teams Toronto FC has faced during their 3-0-4 unbeaten run owns a winning road. That was a 1-1 away draw with Eastern Conference leaders New York City FC. Then there was another 1-1 tie against the New England Revolution, a .500 side at 10-10-10.

Every other point during the streak was taken off a team with a losing record. Five teams, in fact, with a combined record this season of 45-80-29. That’s an overall winning percentage of .386.

Suddenly, the streak doesn’t seem so awe-inspiring.

Toronto FC is 5-7-3 against teams currently occupying playoff positions.

Other Worries

Another key addition for TFC came when they added midfielder Nicolas Benezet on loan from French club Guingamp. They’ve lost just once in eight matches with Benezet in the lineup.

But he suffered a hamstring injury in the win over the Rapids. Toronto FC was a different club without Benezet. They squandered a 2-0 lead and needed a 70th-minute goal from Jonathan Osorio to preserve their unbeaten streak.

A Legit MLS Cup Contender

If you’re seeking an Eastern Conference team to back for a price to win the MLS Cup, the Philadelphia Union make for a much better play at +1200.

The Union are 4-1-1 in their last six and 5-2-1 over the past eight games.

They are dominant at home – 11-2-3 on the season, with just one defeat in their last 15 home matches.

Philadelphia shows tremendous balance in attack. With 55 goals for, the Union are third in the MLS in scoring, led by 14 from Kacper Przybylko. But there are eight players who have netted at least three goals.

They recently held league leaders LAFC to a 1-1 draw.

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