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Toronto FC vs DC United Odds & Pick – MLS Cup Playoffs Round 1

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Apr 13, 2020 · 1:33 PM PDT

Toronto's Jozy Altidore
The fitness of striker Jozy Altidore will be key in determining Toronto's success in the MLS Cup Playoffs. Photo By @JozyAltidore (Twitter)
  • Toronto FC host DC United at BMO Field on October 19, 2019
  • The teams drew on both occasions this regular season
  • See the odds for Toronto vs DC in their Round 1 Audi 2019 MLS Cup Playoffs match

Fourth-place Toronto FC earned a home date in the Audi 2019 MLS Cup Playoffs and will host fifth-place DC United at 6:00 pm EST on Saturday, October 19, 2019.

TFC earned home-field advantage by virtue of a 1-0 Decision Day victory over Columbus Crew, while DC gave away fourth place by drawing 0-0 with FC Cincinnati.

We break down this Round 1 playoff match and provide some expert betting advice.

Toronto FC vs DC United Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total Odds to Qualify
Toronto -0.5 (-190) -190 O 3.5 (+150) -400
DC +0.5 (+145) +465 U 3.5 (-195) +275
Draw N/A +330 N/A N/A

*Odds taken 10/15/19

TFC Can Reach Third Final in Four Years

BMO Field in Toronto is no stranger to hosting big matches. TFC reached the MLS Cup final in 2016 and won the 2017 MLS Cup on home-field. However, after that 2017 Cup win, Toronto failed to reach the playoffs in 2018 and were slow out of the gate to begin this 2019 regular season.

But Toronto have been one of the league’s hottest teams down the stretch run of the season and have not lost a league game since an August 3 loss to New York Red Bulls on the road.

With their Decision Day win over Columbus, Toronto are now undefeated in ten-straight MLS matches as they head into the MLS Cup Playoffs.

Much of Toronto’s success on Saturday may come down to the fitness of star striker Jozy Altidore. Altidore played in 22 matches this season, starting 18 and finishing with 11 goals, seven assists and 50 shots, with 24 on target.

His 11 goals were tied for 17th overall in the league, and put him behind only Alejandro Pozuelo’s 12 for the team lead. Altidore has a long injury history though and the injury bug hit again when he went down awkwardly against Columbus in the 70′ minute with a quad injury. The injury has ruled the American out of the US’s Nations League matches. His status for Toronto’s match on Saturday is still in question.

Considering Altidore has scored nearly 20-percent of TFC’s goals this season, his potential absence would be a huge loss for the team. In games where Jozy did not play this year, the result has been anyone’s guess with Toronto, as the Reds have gone 4-4-4.

Toronto vs DC Stats

13-10-11 (Home: 9-4-4) Record (W-L-T) 13-10-11 (Away: 6-6-5)
57 Goals For 42
52 Goals Against 38
439 Shots 428
165 Shots on Target 123
195 Corners 163

DC Cough up Home-Field

United have played an up-and-down year coming out strong to start the season, before playing out a stretch that saw them win just twice over a 13-game stretch. From August 4-24, DC won just one of five matches, losing four.

However, wins over Montreal (3-0), Portland (1-0) and Seattle (2-0) saw them look likely of finishing the season with home-field in the playoffs in Round 1.

DC let their grip of that position slip away though in the final two weeks of the season with a 0-0 draw to New York Red Bulls September 29 and another 0-0 at home to Cincinnati on Decision Day. The regular season finale draw was especially concerning at home against the league’s worst side. DC were also awarded a two-man advantage for the entire second half as Cincinnati received two red cards to end the first half. Despite 32 total attempts, United managed just three shots on target.

United’s road record is respectable at 6-6-5, however a closer look will show they have just one road victory over a playoff team this season.

Giving away home-field in such a fashion will surely leave a sour taste in their mouth as they now prepare to travel to Toronto.

Their last trip to BMO Field came earlier this year when the teams drew 0-0 in May. The reverse fixture in DC in June ended in another draw, this time 1-1.

Toronto vs DC MLS Cup Playoffs Best Bet

There is no question Toronto are the more in-form side right now heading into the MLS Cup Playoffs. Though, despite a ten-match undefeated streak, they have come away with the full three points only four times during that stretch.

The other interesting note from that streak is that prior to their most recent match with Columbus, their nine previous games all saw both teams scoring. Five of those nine also saw the total exceed 2.5 goals.

DC’s recent matches have been much lower scoring, with Wayne Rooney’s side scoring only 11 goals in their past 12 matches and game totals exceeding two goals just five times. But while the goals have dried up from an offensive standpoint, DC have now kept five-straight clean sheets. DC’s 42 goals scored on the season are the fewest of any playoff team, while their 38 conceded are second in the league to only LAFC’s 37.

United’s road record is respectable at 6-6-5, however, a closer look will show they have just one road victory over a playoff team this season. In fact, of their 13 overall wins, only five have come against playoff sides, and four of those came in the friendly confines of Audi Field which will not be the case this weekend.

All signs look to point to a cagey affair on Saturday decided by the slimmest of margins. With both a TFC win and the “Under 3.5” each looking to offer little value on their own, I’ll look to combine the bets to get +150 odds. Thus, a 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 TFC win will cash this bet. The same bet and “Under 4.5” could also offer a safer option at odds of -110.

Pick: Toronto FC to win and Under 3.5 total goals (+150)

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