Super Bowl Props – How Many Touchdowns Will Russell Wilson Throw?

Every Super Bowl, innumerable prop bets surface before the big game. Some are inextricably linked to the game itself – such as, “Which team will score first?” – others have nothing whatsoever to do with football – such as, “What color Gatorade will be poured over the winning coach?”

Over the next six days, we’ll take a look at several different props and analyze what looks like the better play at the moment. We’ll likely stick to the more football-related props because, well, we have access to football information; we don’t have access to Gatorade information.

Without further ado, let’s get to our first prop:

How many touchdowns will Russell Wilson throw? 1.5 o/u

Super Bowl XLIX invariably features two different yet equally successful quarterbacks.

This season, Russell Wilson and the Seattle passing game have not put up gaudy numbers; they ranked 27th in the league during the regular season in terms of yards. And Wilson had arguably his worst game – make that worst 58 minutes – against Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game, throwing four interceptions.

That said, Wilson still managed a respectable 20 touchdown passes on the year and has four through two playoff games. It’s become a fact of life that Wilson will up his game in the clutch.

On Sunday, “DangeRuss” will be facing a New England Patriots defense built around corners Darrelle Revis and former Seahawk Brandon Browner. The unit gave up only 24 passing touchdowns all season long, an average of 1.5 per game.

So, going into this game, you shouldn’t expect Wilson to all of a sudden become Steve Young. That’s not Seattle’s style of play and they don’t have the receivers to be successful in a spread offense. However, you should expect Wilson to play at a high level.

Moreover, there’s a good chance that New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick schemes his defense to take away rushing yards from Marshawn Lynch and make Wilson beat the Pats through the air. Not only will that increase Wilson’s passing attempts (and, one would assume, completions), but it will also increase his chances of throwing multiple touchdowns.

Think back to last year’s Super Bowl when the talk leading up to the game was how the Seahawks needed Lynch to be successful in order to set up the pass. Then the craziest thing happened: Wilson led his team to a win by completing 18 of 25 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns. All of a sudden, the Seattle passing game looked unstoppable.

Granted, the Patriots secondary is better than Denver’s was last year, and Seattle no longer has the dynamic Percy Harvin to turn short completions into long TDs. But, could something similar happen again, and is it more likely with New England focusing on the run?

You bet.

If you can get the over at even money or better, take it.

(Photo credit: Larry Maurer [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)