Upcoming Match-ups

2019 Australian Open Women’s Final Odds & Pick: Osaka vs Kvitová

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Tennis

Updated Apr 22, 2020 · 1:09 PM PDT

Petra Kvitová
Petra Kvitová has been on a dominant run in Australia. Photo by Peter Menzel (Wikimedia Commons) [CC License].
  • The Australian Open Women’s Singles concludes Saturday with the final set for 3:30 a.m. EST
  • Will Petra Kvitová win a 12th straight match and second title in 2019?
  • Can Naomi Osaka win back-to-back Slams?

The Australian Open Women’s Singles Final comes down to two heavy-hitters in Naomi Osaka and Petra Kvitová.

You can visit our 2019 Australian Open Odds Tracker to view the history of each player’s odds throughout the tournament leading up to the final. 

Naomi Osaka vs Petra Kvitová AO Women’s Final Odds

Player Spread Win Total (01/24/19)
Naomi Osaka +1 (EVEN) +110 O 22 (-110)
Petra Kvitová -1 (-130) -130 U 22 (-120)

No matter which woman comes away with the title, either will have accumulated enough points to take over the new world number one in WTA Rankings.

This is the farthest the 28-year-old Kvitová has made it in the Aussie Open since reaching the semis in 2012. It’s her first majors finals since Wimbledon 2014. Kvitová is the first Czech woman to reach the AO singles finals since 1991.

Naomi Osaka was the 2018 US Open champ last fall, but had never advanced farther than the Round of 16 at the Australian Open prior to this year. She becomes the first Japanese woman in the Open Era to reach the AO Final.

Can Kvitová Win a 2nd Title in 2019?

Little has gone wrong for Petra in 2019. She rolled through the Sydney International only dropping a single set over five matches. That one dropped set came in the finals which she went on to win over Ashleigh Barty.

Kvitová’s average odds were as long as +1750 back on January 10th prior to the tournament.

Kvitová’s has won each of her last 14 sets played over her last two tournaments and 22/23 overall.

Her momentum carried into the AO as she has won all six matches in straight sets. That means she’s won each of her last 14 sets played over the two tournaments and 22/23 overall. She’s also on an 11-match winning streak.

On Wednesday night Kvitová got off to a shaky start in a semifinals match against unranked Danielle Collins. Down 2-3 and playing in extreme heat, the roof was eventually closed at 4-4 and  Kvitová would go on to win the first set in a tie-break.

But that was where the drama ended as the 28-year-old Czech brushed aside the American in six straight games in the second set to win 7-6(2), 6-0 in one hour and 34 minutes. Kvitová held a commanding edge in winners at 30-9 over the match.

Kvitová vs Osaka Statistical Comparison

8th WTA Ranking 4th
2 Majors Wins 1
26 Aces 50
78% First Serve % Won 73%
25 Break Pts Won 28
17 Double Faults 6

Osaka Looks for Back-to-Back Slam Titles

Being the most recent winner of a Grand Slam event, Osaka was considered one of the favorites when the tournament started. She had odds as low as +900 on January 10th.

While she hasn’t had it all go her way in Australia, dropping the first set twice, she’s advanced past four-straight seeded players to reach the finals. She’s also now on a 13-match winning streak in the majors.

Late into Thursday night Osaka fell behind in the first game of her semifinals match against Karolína Plíšková. However she quickly got back on track and ran out to a 6-2 first set win in just 32 minutes.

Plíšková had the disadvantage of playing on no days rest after defeating Serena Williams a day before. The short rest and longer match showed early as her serves were averaging a full two miles slower in the first set than her prior match.

Osaka leads the tournament with 50 aces and is riding an incredible streak of winning 58 straight matches when winning the first set.

Though Plíšková responded with a 6-4 win in set two, Osaka came back in the third set to win 6-4, taking the match 6-2, 4-6, 6-4. Osaka was able to take control of the match with 15 aces to Plíšková’s three and a huge advantage in winners at 56-20.

Osaka leads the tournament with 50 aces and is riding an incredible streak of winning 58-straight matches when winning the first set.

Head-to-Head & Spread Bets

The Women’s Singles Aussie Open Final features a matchup between two players with no head-to-head history.

The more experienced Kvitová does hold an edge in overall WTA Singles titles at 26-2. Her record in finals over her career is also a ridiculous 26-7.

I’ve been riding with Kvitová all tournament and have some +2000 in my pocket from earlier this month. I see little reason to go against the hottest women’s tennis player of 2019 now.

However if you’ve bet Kvitová on the outrights at just about any point this tournament, a bet on Osaka now as a +110 underdog would certainly create a tempting hedging proposition to lock in some profit. She’s definitely capable of pulling the upset.

From a total games perspective I’ll side with OVER 22. Osaka’s last four matches have seen 28, 17 and 29 games twice. Kvitová has only played a max of 19 games once and no more than 17 in any of her other matches during the AO.

However she came close to dropping a set to Collins in the semis and won 6-4 in the second set to Barty in the quarters. I think Osaka will make this competitive and the match will see three sets, pushing the game’s total easily over.

Women’s Singles Final AO Props

Australian Open Women’s Singles Prop Bets Odds
Total Sets 2 -170
 Total Sets 3 +140
Double Result – Kvitova Win First Set & Win Match +110
Double Result – Kvitova Win First Set & Lose Match +700
Double Result – Osaka Win First Set & Win Match +150
Double Result – Osaka Win First Set & Lose Match +600
Set Betting – Kvitova 2-0 +180
Set Betting – Kvitova 2-1 +300
Set Betting – Osaka 2-0 +250
Set Betting – Osaka 2-1 +350

There are many ways to bet this match though as I draw your attention to a few props above. I see a competitive final, thus bringing a three set bet or Kvitová 2-1 bet into play.

But if you like Osaka and think her first set success streak will continue, you can find a little more value at +150 on Osaka to win the first set and win match.

Women’s Final Best Bets:

  • Petra Kvitová -130
  • Total Sets 3 +140
  • Or combine for Kvitová 2-1 +300
Author Image