ATP Cup Odds & Predictions – Round Robin Day 3

• The ATP Cup is a warm-up Down Under for the Australian Open
• A team competition, individuals represent their countries and accrue points based on match results
• Day 3 of the Round Robin on Wednesday has several matches with intriguing odds

In less than a week, the Australian Open will begin. The first major of the year is a huge deal and most of top players are participating in warm-up tournaments in Australia now. The second ATP Cup is a team competition played in Melbourne and the ATP Cup Day 3 continues tonight.

A dozen countries are participating with four players and a captain from each squad. Four groups of three countries each play a round-robin, with two singles matches and a doubles contest. The best teams advance to the knockout stage.

Let’s look at the singles action on Wednesday and decipher where betting value is present.

ATP Cup Day 3 Round Robin Singles Odds

Odds taken Feb 3 at Bet365

Dennis Novak vs Benoit Paire

Denis Novak beat Fabio Fognini 6-3, 6-2 and lost a doubles match when his Austrian team fell against Italy to begin the ATP Cup.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWdUfk9WVNA

He struggled at the end of 2020, dropping first-round matches in the Erste Bank Open and bett1HULKS Championships. You have to go back to 2018 to find a grand slam tournament win for Novak.

Novak has faced Benoit Paire twice. Novak won indoors last year in Germany in straight sets. In the 2018 US Open Paire earned a four-set victory. Paire won two sets in tiebreaks.

Paire lost in a lopsided match to Fognini when France was dropped by Italy in the ATP Cup Round Robin.

Last year Paire lost his first match in Kazakhstan and Cologne to close the season. After March last year, he won just one singles match, a first round French Open victory over Soon Woo Kwon.

While Paire has traditionally had his best results on clay, he has beaten top 10 players on hard courts four times, though none since 2016.

Paire’s recent form stinks, but laying a big price on the not-exactly-sharp Novak seems crazy. In fact, there is value on Paire. If he is healthy he has a solid chance to win.

Pick: Paire (+245)

Guido Pella vs Yoshihito Nishioka

Guido Pella, a southpaw representing Argentina, began his 2020 singles work with a loss to Andrey Rublev in straight sets when Russia beat Argentina in the round robin.

That was his first action since a second-round loss in the French Open. He mostly had a 2020 to forget, though he won two of three singles match-ups in this tournament, and made a run to the third round in the Australian Open.

All five of his career ATP Finals have come on clay. That said, he has four career victories over top 10 opponents, one on clay, one on a hard court, and two on grass.

Pella and Yoshihito Nishioka have played once, in 2015 on clay. Pella won easily, 6-0, 6-1.

Nishioka was marginally more competitive than Pella falling to Rublev when Russia took care of Japan in the country’s first matches in this competition.

Last year Nishioka was solid though not spectacular towards the end of the season. He won a match at the Paris Masters in November and a couple in October in Germany. Far and away his 2020 highlight was getting to the final in Delray Beach in February.

Nishioka plays his best on hard surfaces and is in better form than Pella. The price is not crazy, and it is a reasonable expectation to think he is the stronger player right now.

Pick: Nishioka (-163)

Rafael Nadal vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

There is always going to be a slight handicap baked into the betting price on an all-time great. That isn’t to say Rafael Nadal isn’t the bet here, but be aware that average fans are going to see these two names, and jump on the 20-time Grand Slam champion without considering much more.

Nadal is making his 2021 debut. After winning his record 13th French Open last year, he closed the season with a semifinal loss to Alexander Zverev in Paris and splitting four matches at the ATP Finals in London.

Rafa Nadal doesn't even need to play tennis to be a highlight reel 🤩#ATPCup @RafaelNadal pic.twitter.com/glqynjaZHM

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) February 2, 2021

Nadal is 6-1 against Stefanos Tsitsipas including a pair of three-setters at the end of each of the last two years in Great Britain.

Tsitsipas won his singles match against Alex de Minaur but Greece still fell to Australia to open this event.

At the end of last year Tsitsipas lost to Nadal and Dominic Thiem but beat Andrey Rublev in London. He lost to Novak Djokovic in the semifinals at Roland Garros. His 2020 highlight was winning the Open 13 Provence in Marseille in February, his fifth career ATP victory.

There is no doubt that Tsitsipas can win, but Nadal typically opens the year strong, and the odds aren’t overly slanted. It is no lock, but Nadal feels like the value, particularly since he has dominated the series against Tsitsipas.

Pick: Nadal (-188)