Expert NASCAR Wurth 400 Predictions and Updated Odds for Texas

• 9-1 last three weeks…what could possibly go wrong?
• Ty Gibbs is flying under the radar…again.
• Read below for expert NASCAR Wurth 400 predictions and updated odds for Texas.

If you’ve read anything I’ve written over the last five or six years, you already know—I fancy myself a bowler.

50+ 300 games. State titles. A respectable résumé…followed by a not-so-respectable detour when I had to get my arm rebuilt a few years back. I’ve still had 300s since returning, but the opportunities have been a little more infrequent. Fewer swings at it. More near-misses. 299s. 279s. If you know, you know.

The theoretical lid was on.

Until Wednesday night.
And then Thursday night.

Back-to-back nights with 300s. Just like that, the lid’s off.

Which brings us to Kyle Larson.

The speed has been there. The execution has been there. The finishing touch? Not so much. Until Saturday, when he went out and won the O’Reilly Auto Parts race.

And if there’s one thing better than winning once, it’s winning again the next day.

Not to mention, those 300s? Yeah…they came in Kyle Larson jerseys. Not saying. Just saying.

Here’s something neat…snapped off another 300 tonight. Is it the @KyleLarsonRacin jersey? I don’t know, but I’ll be buying more. @TeamHendrick. pic.twitter.com/w1HikFa4Gx

— speedwaysteve2 (@speedwaysteve2) May 1, 2026

We’re 9-1 on these Cup predictions articles over the last three weeks, so make sure you’re tailing so that you can be extra mad when variance inevitably shows up.

Wurth 400 Start Time

The green flag drops at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1 for the Wurth 400, where betting value has emerged on a handful of drivers highlighted below.

Wurth 400 Updated Odds

Odds available at BetRivers Sportsbook as of May 2 at 11:01 p.m. ET. Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick are co-favorites at +500, implying a win probability of 16.67%. Shop the best sportsbook promos for the top Wurth 400 odds.

Everything's bigger in Texas … including the racing. pic.twitter.com/XwYCaiZ6Kz

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) April 29, 2026

Expert NASCAR Wurth 400 Predictions

Kyle Larson over Denny Hamlin / Tyler Reddick / Christopher Bell (+275, BetRivers)

We’ve got this lined closer to +167, which implies about a 37% win probability.

At +275, the market is pricing this closer to 27%.

That’s a real edge. Yes, we’re going to lose this bet more often than we win it—but getting paid like it hits 27% of the time on something that should hit 37% is exactly how you stack units over time.

Kyle Larson over Chase Elliott (-120, BetRivers)

We’re showing nearly a three-position edge here, driven by Larson’s model score and his dominance on 1.5-mile tracks.

In comparable track data since the start of the 2025 season:

• Larson ranks 1st in fast laps (22.4)
• 2nd in laps led (55.2)
• 2nd in laps inside the top 15

Elliott, meanwhile:

• 10th in fast laps (8.0)
• 11th in laps led (6.8)
• 8th in top-15 laps

They’ll roll off 11th (Larson) and 14th (Elliott), so there’s no major track position hurdle. Add in Larson’s extra track time this weekend on a circuit that’s already shown some teeth, and this sets up well.

Ty Gibbs Top-10 Finish (-118, BetRivers)
Ty Gibbs over Carson Hocevar (-114, BetRivers)

Gibbs is going to fly under the radar in the copy-and-paste lap averages. Fortunately, the grizzled veterans inside SpeedwaySteve2 HQ know how to filter out the noise.

The kid was hauling.

Yes, Hocevar won Talladega.
Yes, he picked up his first Cup win.
Yes, he won the Truck race Friday night.
Yes, he’s on the pole Sunday.

We’ve acknowledged it. We’ve celebrated it. We’re moving on.

Our projections have Gibbs finishing 6.3, nearly six spots ahead of Hocevar. The pit crew has been operating at a much higher level this season, and the overall speed profile backs it up.

We’ll take the matchup—and while we’re at it, we’ll cash a top-10 ticket too.

Because two is always better than one.

(Probably.)