Andrey Rublev vs Alexander Zverev Odds & Prediction – ATP Western & Southern Open Finals
- Alexander Zverev is the favorite against childhood pal Andrey Rublev in the Western & Southern Open final
- Both reached Sunday’s match (Aug. 21st, 4:30pm ET) by upsetting higher-ranked opponents
- Zverev is undefeated against Rublev; read on as we break down the matchup and pick a winner
Andrey Rublev had an 0-4 head-to-head against Western & Southern Open No. 1 seed Daniil Medvedev. And yet, he won their semifinal Saturday.
Alexander Zverev was 2-6 against the higher-ranked Stefanos Tsitsipas. And yet he won, too.
And so these two good friends, who have been tight since they were 11 years old, take on each other Sunday in Cincinnati.
It will be the biggest occasion in which they’ve ever shared the court. And Zverev is the solid favorite.
Andrey Rublev vs Alexander Zverev Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [4] Andrey Rublev (RUS) | +3.5 (-105) | +210 | O 22.5 (-105) |
| [3] Alexander Zverev (GER) | -3.5 (-115) | -265 | U 22.5 (-115) |
Odds as of Aug. 22 at DraftKings
Rogue Camera Turns Match Rublev’s Way
Saturday’s semifinal match between Medvedev and Rublev was inexorably headed towards its typical conclusion: a straight-sets win for Medvedev.
And then, the fates – and an accumulation of tennis for Medvedev, who won the National Bank Open title in Toronto last week – intervened.
At 6-2, 1-1 in the second set, Medvedev was running full tilt for the ball when he collided with an immovable force – an extremely large television camera.
He stopped himself with his left hand. But he did hurt the hand. And, more than that, he was furious.
Medvedev kicked the camera lens (not hard, but to make a point), threatened to sue, and sat down to have the hand looked at. The resulting break shook him up and changed the momentum.
Sublime comeback 😇@AndreyRublev97 through to the @CincyTennis Final! pic.twitter.com/jR2CsBpVX7
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) August 21, 2021
Eventually the wear and tear of the last two weeks caught up with Medvedev. He was close to cramping, and even if Rublev was somewhat overheated himself, he surged to an unexpected 2-6, 6-3, 6-3 victory.
More Drama as Zverev Upsets Tsitsipas
Saturday’s second semifinal was equally dramatic.
There was the now-standard long bathroom break by Tsitsipas – which had Zverev, who took the first set, objecting strenuously.
After dropping first set Tsitsipas, leaves court with his bag.
Zverev accuses him of getting coaching.
Apostolos: pic.twitter.com/zWBtp1czfK— The Payers & Players Podcast (@PayersPlayers) August 21, 2021
Zverev began feeling ill in the second set. And he, like Gaël Monfils a few days before, got sick on the court.
As ashen as he was, he also began feeling better. Down two breaks in the third, the 24-year-old German came back to win in a third-set tiebreak – 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 (4).
Tsitsipas was serving at 4-1 in the third and had a point for 5-1. And couldn’t finish the job.
Rublev vs Zverev Head-to-Head
| 23 (Oct. 20, 1997) | Age | 24 (April 20, 1997) |
| Moscow, Russia | Birthplace | Hamburg, Germany |
| 6-2 | Height | 6-6 |
| 8 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 16 |
| No. 7 (April 19, 2021) | Career High Ranking | No. 3 (Nov. 6, 2017 |
| No. 7 | Current Ranking | No. 5 |
| $8,649,305 | Career Prize Money | $25,171,770 |
| 41-13 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 37-11 |
| 0 | Career ATP Head to Head | 4 |
Friends Since Pre-Teen Days
Zverev and Rublev have known each other since they were 11 years old. They went through the juniors together, often teaming up for doubles.
But you’d never know it on the court.
Rublev and de Minaur are going to play third set
This pic is from Australian Open Juniors 2014 when Andrey played doubles with Sascha and they faced Alex. pic.twitter.com/bfN1GbHT84— Team Zverev (@zverev_team) August 5, 2018
Not only is Zverev, six months older and far more precocious, 4-0 against Rublev on the ATP Tour, he also was 3-0 against him in the juniors.
Rublev has never taken a set.
Sound familiar?
Andrey Rublev vs Alexander Zverev Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Australian Open (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 | Zverev |
| 2019 | Shanghai (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 6-0, 7-6 (4) | Zverev |
| 2017 | Beijing (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-2, 6-3 | Zverev |
| 22016 | Monte Carlo (R64) | Outdoor Clay | 6-1, 6-3 | Zverev |
Matchup Challenges Similar for Rublev
After a streak-breaking victory over Medvedev Saturday, can Rublev do the same against Zverev?
It’s complicated. Rublev runs into the same challenges against Zverev as he does against Medvedev. Except: Zverev has an even bigger first serve.
Zverev also wins the backhand battle by a fair margin. And if its firing on the day, he can keep up reasonably well with Rublev’s big forehand.
Both had draining matches on Saturday, and it’s a quick turnaround.
Miami ✅
Madrid ✅
Rome ✅
Canada ✅
Cincinnati ✅
Shanghai ✅
Paris ✅@AlexZverev has now reached 7 of the 9 Masters 1000 finals, and won 9 of 11 M1000 semi-finals 👏#CincyTennis pic.twitter.com/JYdbzOfpWk— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) August 22, 2021
Sunday will be yet another hot and extremely humid day in Cincinnati. Quick-strike tennis will be key. The winner of the first set will have the advantage; the mountain to climb to victory will seem like a pretty major challenge to the player who loses it.
Still, Zverev knows the drill in Masters 1000 tournaments. This is Rublev’s first final at this level, one below the Grand Slams.
Best Bet: Zverev to win (-265)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
