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Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Odds & Prediction – Wimbledon Semifinals

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Tennis

Updated Jul 13, 2023 · 7:32 AM PDT

Carlos Alcaraz return versus Holger Rune at Wimbledon.
Jul 12, 2023; London, United Kingdom; Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) returns a shot during his match against Holger Rune (DEN) on day ten of Wimbledon at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon semifinal odds list the Spaniard as a -250 moneyline favorite
  • Alcaraz is a perfect 10-0 on grass courts this season
  • Check out the latest Alcaraz vs Medvedev odds, picks, predictions, and best bets below

The Carlos Alcaraz grass court train rolls on at Wimbledon, as the Spaniard is through to his first ever semifinal at the All England Club and he enters the semifinals favored in the Alcaraz vs Medvedev odds.

Alcaraz breezed past childhood friend, and fellow 20-year-old Holger Rune in the quarterfinals, and will now face number three seed Daniil Medvedev on Friday.

Online sportsbooks continue to be extremely bullish on the world number one, listing him as the heavy chalk over his Russian opponent.

Alcaraz vs Medvedev Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total
Carlos Alcaraz -250 -4.5 (+100) Over 38.5 (-135)
Daniil Medvedev +205 +4.5 (-125) Under 38.5 (+110)

Alcaraz is currently a -250 moneyline favorite, in a match with a projected total of 38.5 games. The action is set to get underway at 10:30 am ET, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Odds as of July 12 at DraftKings. Claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on Wimbledon semifinal action today.


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Carlos Alcaraz Betting Analysis

Hard to believe, but prior to late last month Alcaraz had never reached a grass court quarterfinal. He quickly put an end to that at the Queen’s Club, winning all five of his matches en route to his first grass court title.

He entered this tournament with the second shortest Wimbledon odds, and you can make the argument he’s looked just at good as the favorite Novak Djokovic.

Alcaraz was clinical in his dismissal of Rune, facing just one break point in the entire match. He won 80% of his first serve points to improve to 2-1 lifetime versus Rune, becoming the youngest Wimbledon male semifinalist since Djokovic in 2007.

Rune may have won the flashier points, but Alcaraz was the more consistent player, using his immense power and deft touch to control the play. He didn’t make a single unforced error in the second set, breaking his opponent late to take a commanding lead.

Alcaraz has dropped just two sets all tournament, and is riding a 10-match winning streak on grass. Even he seemed surprised by his dominant quarterfinal performance, but a surface that was once considered a weakness has now become a major strength.

Daniil Medvedev Betting Analysis

Medvedev’s path to the semis was far more arduous. He needed to rally from a two sets to one deficit in the quarters to end the fairytale run of American Christopher Eubanks. Medvedev was caught off guard early as Eubanks kept landing blow after blow, but the Russian composed himself and leaned on his experience to outlast the American.

In doing so, Medvedev won for just the fourth time ever in 14 career five-set matches. He’s 2-4 in five-setters at Wimbledon, and will need to rely heavily on his defense to keep pace with Alcaraz.

Fortunately for Medvedev, that part of his game is a major strength. He committed just 13 unforced errors in his marathon match against Eubanks, and he’ll need to replicate that effort in the semifinals.

The 2021 US Open champ has a 40-19 record all-time on grass, but is in the midst of his longest run ever at Wimbledon. Prior to this season, he had never exceeded Round 4 in five career appearances, bowing out in the 3rd round or earlier four times.

Alcaraz vs Medvedev Predictions

This will actually mark the second meeting between the two at the All England Club. Back in 2021, Medvedev mopped the floor with Alcaraz, dropping only seven games in a straight sets win. Alcaraz was much greener on grass as an 18-year-old, and he extracted some revenge in their latest meeting.

The Spaniard cruised past the Russian 6-3, 6-2 in the Indian Wells final earlier this year. Alcaraz’s form is impossible to bet against straight up at the moment, but there’s a chance he’s looking past Medvedev to a potential championship matchup versus Djokovic.

Alcaraz vs Medvedev Stats

Carlos Alcaraz
Daniil Medvedev
1 ATP Ranking 3
5 ATP Titles 5
45-4 W-L (2023) 46-8
1-1 Head-to-Head Record 1-1

The world number one’s father was reportedly filming Djokovic’s practice session on Wednesday, which caused the seven-time Wimbledon champ to demand for privacy.

Medvedev won’t be an easy out, and has been compared to an Octopus by fellow players for his ability to get so many balls back in play. He’s 6-3 against top-10 opposition this season and has just as many title as Alcaraz (5) in 2023.

I’m still expecting Alcaraz to prevail, but this will be his toughest match yet. Grab the +4.5 games on Medvedev with the expectation that this match goes at least four sets.

Pick: Daniil Medvedev +4.5 Games (-125)

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