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Casper Ruud vs Novak Djokovic Odds & Prediction – Nitto ATP Finals (Final)

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Nov 19, 2022 · 6:31 PM PST

Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev
Serbia's Novak Djokovic celebrates after a winning point as he plays Russia's Andrey Rublev during their ATP World Tour Finals singles tennis match, at the Pala Alpitour in Turin, Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2021. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)
  • The last match of the ATP Tour season goes Sunday, Nov. 20 at 1 p.m. ET, with the Nitto ATP Finals final
  • No. 3 seed Casper Ruud meets No. 7 Novak Djokovic, who has won it four times – but not since 2015
  • Read on as we break down the matchup, in which the higher-ranked Ruud is the underdog

Casper Ruud is the higher-ranked player at the moment. But he knows that against Novak Djokovic, he’s the underdog.

Actually, he’s a pretty serious underdog.

Ruud vs Djokovic Nitto ATP Finals Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[3] Casper Ruud (NOR) +3.5 (-107) +300 O 22.5 (-113)
[7] Novak Djokovic (SRB) -3.5 (-120) -400 U 22.5 (-112)

Odds as of Nov. 19 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Nitto ATP Finals.

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Djokovic has won the year-end tournament four times. That was four consecutive titles – but the most recent one came in 2015.

He last made the final in 2018.

Easy-peasy for Ruud over Rublev

Despite Andrey Rublev’s dominant head-to-head against Ruud, their semifinal Saturday came down to Rublev’s newly-acquired on-court cool just … crumbling on the day.

Ruud just had to keep his – which he usually does – and let the Russian self-destruct in just over an hour.

Djokovic was far from 100 percent after some obvious physical struggles Friday in his final (and meaningless) round-robin match against Daniil Medvedev.

But he played well when it counted – in the two tiebreaks.

Fritz served for the second set. But a couple of jokers in the crowd yelling out – just as he was about to make a winning backhand to get to set point – were both unwelcome and potentially determinative. Had Fritz been able to push it to three sets, all bets were off given Djokovic’s physical level.

Title, Dollars and Ranking Points at Stake

Win or lose, Djokovic will be No. 5 in the world in the year-end rankings. This is astonishing considering he couldn’t earn points from three Grand Slam events and four Masters 1000 tournaments in 2022 (all but the 2,000 points from Wimbledon because of his unvaccinated status).

If those points from the Wimbledon he did play – and won – were counted this year, he would be No. 2 in the world, just 180 points behind Carlos Alcaraz.

But if he gets through and wins the ATP Finals undefeated, he will cash a cheque in the amount of $4,740,300 US.

Not to mention, earn 1,500 ranking points.

Ruud, with one less victory in the round-robin, would come home with $4,357,000 US if he wins it all. He would also leap over Rafael Nadal and finish the year ranked No. 2.

Casper Ruud vs Novak Djokovic Head-to-Head

Casper Ruud
Missing Team
23 (Dec. 22, 1998) Age 35 (May 22, 1987)
Oslo, Norway Birthplace Belgrade, Serbia
6-0 Height 6-2
9 Career ATP Singles Titles 90
No. 2 (Sept. 12, 2022) Career-Best Ranking No. 1 (July 4, 2011)
No. 4 Current Ranking No. 8
$9,564,936 Career Prize Money $159,951,008
51-21 2022 Won/Loss Record 41-7
0 Head-to-Head Wins 3

But how can Ruud get past Djokovic – even win a set against him, something he’s yet to do in three previous meetings?

Matchup Depends on Djokovic

If Djokovic – who, let’s not forget, is 35 – can find a way through the accumulated effort of the week (especially Friday’s match against Medvedev) and can arrive at 7 p.m. Turin time with his energy replenished, he should have the match’s destiny in his own hands.

Ruud vs Djokovic Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2022 Rome Masters (SF) Outdoor Clay 6-4, 6-3 Djokovic
2021 ATP Finals (RR) Indoor Hard 7-6 (4), 6-2 Djokovic
2020 Rome Masters (SF) Outdoor Clay 7-5, 6-3 Djokovic

Two of their previous three meetings have come in the late stages of the Rome Masters, a tournament where Djokovic has 12 finals and six titles. And it’s one of the places on the planet where he enjoys the most fan support.

But clay is Ruud’s best surface, so that has to be discouraging.

They last met in Turin a year ago, where Ruud took the Serb to a first-set tiebreak but, after losing it, fell away.

Casper Ruud vs Novak Djokovic Nitto ATP Finals Prediction

The two most likely outcomes we see here are Djokovic winning in straight sets (-141), or Ruud pulling it out in three sets (+700), taking advantage of Djokovic’s sub-par energy levels.

You can never count out a champion, though. The Serb wants this, and that desire might well trump any fatigue in this, his final match of the season.

Still, those three-set upset odds are tempting.

Best Bet: Ruud in Three Sets  (+700)


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