Daniil Medvedev vs Denis Shapovalov Odds & Prediction – Erste Bank Open Final
- Daniil Medvedev brings a 3-2 head-to-head into his Vienna Open final against Denis Shapovalov
- He’s a strong favorite to win again; the final will be played at 2 p.m. local time in Vienna
- Scroll down as we break down the match and predict if Shapovalov has a shot at victory
Denis Shapovalov, now 23, was a baby-faced kid of 19 the last time he defeated Daniil Medvedev.
He’ll try to end a streak of three consecutive victories by the Russian around, in their Vienna Open final.
The match is scheduled for 10 a.m. ET – don’t forget there’s only a five-hour time difference this week, as they wind the clocks back an hour overnight in Europe, a week ahead of North America.
Medvedev vs Shapovalov Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [1] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) | -3.5 (-137) | -400 | O 22.5 (+102) |
| Denis Shapovalov (CAN) | +3.5 (+108) | +295 | U 22.5 (-127) |
Odds as of Oct. 29 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Vienna Open.
The oddsmakers don’t seem to fill this one will be especially close; Medvedev is at -400 to win it, even if Shapovalov is arguably in better form the last few weeks.
New Dad Medvedev Back to Finish Strong
As much of a “down” season as it’s been for Medvedev, who was unable to play Wimbledon because of the Russian ban and didn’t come close to defending his US Open title last month, he’s still earned more than $3.3 million.
He’ll go over the $25 million career mark in earnings after this week.
Daniil Medvedev doing Daniil Medvedev things pic.twitter.com/6xgm4AFgKj
— Srihari (@srihariravi12) October 29, 2022
Medvedev has won just one minor title, in Mexico at the start of the North American hard-court season. He lost to Nick Kyrgios twice – in Canada, and at the US Open.
But he seems to have recovered from an adductor issue he felt late in the second set of his semifinal match against Novak Djokovic in Kazakhstan a few weeks ago. Medvedev lost that second-set tiebreak, and then retired.
He’s played some very dangerous players in Vienna that turned out to be … not quite so dangerous. And so Medvedev has won eight consecutive sets, and lost more than three games in just two of them.
Medvedev vs Shapovalov Head-to-Head
| 26 (Feb. 11, 1996) | Born | 23 (April 15, 1999) |
| Moscow, Russia | Birthplace | Tel Aviv, Israel |
| 6-6 | Height | 6-1 |
| 14 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 1 |
| No. 1 (Feb. 28, 2022) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 10 (Sept. 21, 2020) |
| No. 4 | Current Ranking | No. 19 |
| $24,998,477 | Career Prize Money | $9,872,451 |
| 44-15 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 32-22 |
| 3 | Head-to-Head Wins | 2 |
Shapovalov Looking for 2nd Title, Top 15 Ranking
Shapovalov can relate to the roller-coaster that has been 2022.
But a break after the US Open seems to have refreshed him.
Medvedev vs Shapovalov Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Cincinnati Masters (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 7-5, 7-5 | Medvedev |
| 2021 | Laver Cup (RR) | Indoor Hard | 6-4, 6-0 | Medvedev |
| 2018 | Tokyo (SF) | Indoor Hard | 6-3, 6-3 | Medvedev |
| 2018 | Washington (R32) | Outdoor Hard | 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 | Shapovalov |
| 2017 | US Open (R128) | Outdoor Hard | 7-5, 6-1, 6-2 | Shapovalov |
Overall, it doesn’t seem, tennistically speaking, to be a great matchup for the Canadian.
On-Court Matchup Favors Medvedev
The Russian’s deep position on court gives Shapovalov a look he doesn’t love – it makes the court feel bigger somehow, which probably makes him feel like he has to hit harder, better.
And with that comes more errors.
As it is, Shapovalov will be pretty tight for this one, knowing the quality of his opponent as well as his own lack of success in ATP finals.
NEXT STOP: FINALS!
🇨🇦 Denis Shapovalov defeats Borna Coric in straight sets 7-6 (4), 6-0 to advance to the Vienna Final against Medvedev 🇷🇺. pic.twitter.com/OoE6SlyRLx
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) October 29, 2022
Ultimately, to beat Medvedev when he’s playing well, you have to either serve him off the court (which Shapovalov can do, but likely won’t do).
Or you have to beat him in the rallies, which is exceedingly difficult for a shotmaker like Shapovalov to be patient enough to do.
Medvedev vs Shapovalov Pick
Neither player has a sterling record in finals.
Medvedev is 14-12; Shapovalov is worse, at 1-4, on a smaller sample size.
And he hasn’t beaten Medvedev in more than four years.
He was ranked higher than the Russian when he defeated him in D.C. in 2018. And he was just slightly lower when he surprised the Russian in the first round of the 2017 US Open, beating him in straight sets.
But that tournament came on the heels of the (then) 18-year-old’s breakout tournament at home in Canada, where he upset Rafael Nadal on the way to the semifinals.
And Medvedev, even though he’s three years older, wasn’t Mededev quite yet.
If you’re feeling brave, those are pretty nice odds for an upset (+295). Which isn’t entirely out of the question.
Best Bet: At least One Tiebreak (+123)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
