Iga Swiatek vs Anett Kontaveit Odds & Prediction – WTA Qatar Open Final
- No. 4 seed Anett Kontaveit will meet No. 7 seed Iga Swiatek in the Doha Final Saturday (10 am ET)
- Kontaveit is on a nine-match winning streak that includes a title in St. Petersburg two weeks ago
- Read on as we break down the matchup and make a prediction
When Anett Kontaveit put her eight-match winning streak up against Jelena Ostapenko’s nine-match streak Friday in the Doha semifinals, something had to give.
And in the end, it was Ostapenko, as Kontaveit defeated her in straight sets to reach her second consecutive WTA Tour final.
So the top two favorites before the tournament began have both made the final.
Swiatek vs Kontaveit Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [7] Iga Swiatek (POL) | +1.5 (-125) | +100 | O 21.5 (-130) |
| [4] Anett Kontaveit (EST) | -1.5 (-115) | -130 | U 21.5 (-110) |
Odds as of Feb. 25 at DraftKings
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When Swiatek Reaches a Final, She Wins
It’s the first WTA final of 2022 for Iga Swiatek, who won the Rome event on clay last May.
Notably, after losing her first career final in a smaller tournament in Lugano in 2019 as an 18-year-old, Swiatek had reached three previous finals.
They have been significant ones: in Adelaide in 2021 (a 500), in Rome in 2021 (a 1000) and at the French Open in 2020 (a major). And she won all three.
So when she makes a run, she’s been hard to beat.
For Kontaveit, it’s the second consecutive final this year. But there was a week’s break in between after the Estonian withdrew from Dubai, after winning the 500 in St. Petersburg.
Still, that’s a nine-match win streak and counting.
Swiatek vs Kontaveit Head-to-Head
| 20 (May 31, 2001) | Age | 26 (Dec. 24, 1995) |
| Warsaw, Poland | Birthplace | Tallinn, Estonia |
| 5-9 | Height | 5-9 |
| 3 | Career WTA Singles Titles | 6 |
| No. 4 (Sept. 27, 2021) | Career High Ranking | No. 6 (Feb. 14, 2022) |
| No. 8 | Current Ranking | No. 7 |
| $5,581.473 | Career Prize Money | $7,048,343 |
| 13-3 | 2022 Won/Loss record | 13-2 |
| 2 | Career Head to Head | 2 |
Swiatek had a run of her own at the Australian Open, where she made the semifinals. She skipped St. Petersburg and didn’t return until Dubai last week, where she lost in a third-set tiebreak to eventual champion Jelena Ostapenko.
So her form isn’t in question. She has rebounded nicely after somewhat of a debacle at the WTA Tour Finals. And she has a new coach in Tomasz Wiktorowski, who took countrywoman Agnieszka Radwanska to No. 2.
An Even-Steven Rivalry in Two Parts
The first two times Kontaveit and Swiatek met were before the pandemic – and, notably, before Swiatek’s big win at the French Open.
Both were won by the far more experienced Kontaveit, who has six years on her Polish opponent.
The most recent two both came in the third round of majors (the French Open and US Open). Both were won by a more mature and confident Swiatek.
But Kontaveit was barely inside the top 30 for both. They came before the 2021 late-season surge that saw the 26-year-old qualify for the WTA Finals for the first time ever.
And now, she’s not only in the top 10; she’s ranked higher than Swiatek.
Anett Kontaveit advances to her 1st WTA 1000 final since 2018 with a 61 64 win over Jelena Ostapenko. Also d. Ostapenko in the St. Petersburg SF en route to the title. Extends her win streak to 9.
Kontaveit has now reached the final in 5 of her last 7 events. #QatarTennis pic.twitter.com/Frtpc099ys
— WTA Insider (@WTA_insider) February 25, 2022
So this matchup really couldn’t be more even.
Both have only dropped one set in the tournament. And both have taken care of quality players in straight sets.
Swiatek vs Kontaveit Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | US Open (R32) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 | Swiatek |
| 2021 | Roland Garros (R32) | Outdoor Clay | 7-6 (4), 6-0 | Swiatek |
| 2020 | Australian Open (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 6-7 (4), 7-5, 7-5 | Kontaveit |
| 2019 | Cincinnati (R32) | Outdoor Hard | 6-4, 7-6 (2) | Kontaveit |
Swiatek With More Weapons
On paper, Swiatek has more weapons at her disposal.
She has a better first serve, can produce more power at times and also has bigger variety.
But Kontaveit is the steadier of the two – far less prone to ups and downs. And the Estonian will be feeling pretty good about herself after dispatching the in-form player of the moment in Ostapenko in the semifinals.
Iga Swiatek advances to her 2nd WTA 1000 final, earning her 1st win over Maria Sakkari 64 63. Came back from a break down in both sets.
Faces Kontaveit in Saturdays’ final. H2H locked at 2-2.
Swiatek: “Get some snacks. Bring popcorn.”#QatarTennis pic.twitter.com/O6olNhZMEF
— WTA Insider (@WTA_insider) February 25, 2022
Still, there’s a definite case to make that Swiatek can win this – because of her record in finals, her recent record against Kontaveit, and the fact that she has reached the business end of a lot more top-level tournaments.
And the fact that she’s fresh off a first career win over Maria Sakkari, come back from an early break against her in both sets.
But at +100, there’s more value in taking a shot at a three-setter. Swiatek sits at +310 to win in three; Kontaveit is at +295.
In the end, as often is the case, the outcome may rest in Swiatek’s ability to stay cool.
Best Bet: Swiatek in three sets (+310)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
