WTA Qatar Open Semifinals Odds & Picks: Kontaveit vs Ostapenko & Swiatek vs Sakkari
- The Doha semi between Anett Kontaveit vs Jelena Ostapenko is a rematch of their semifinal two weeks ago
- Maria Sakkari is 3-0 vs Iga Swiatek in the second semifinal matchup (9am ET Friday)
- We break down the matchups, and predict the semifinal winners and the champion
Anett Kontaveit was the favorite before the WTA tournament on Doha began.
But at this point, you’d have to think any of the final four could win it.
Kontaveit vs Ostapenko Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [4] Anett Kontaveit (EST) | -3.5 (-105) | -210 | O 21.5 (-120) |
| [15] Jelena Ostapenko (LAT) | +3.5 (-130) | +165 | U 21.5 (-115) |
Odds as of Feb. 24 at DraftKings
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A Rematch from the St. Petersburg Semifinal
Kontaveit was also the favorite for her last match against Ostapenko, in the semifinals of St. Petersburg just two weeks ago.
She won in straight sets before taking the title with a marathon victory over Maria Sakkari in the final.
The same faces keep popping up, during this period where No. 1 Ashleigh Barty isn’t playing, No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka is dealing with serving yips, and No. 4 Paula Badosa’s level is up and down.
The St. Petersburg win was a continuation of Kontaveit’s dominant late-2021 indoor swing.
But this is outdoors, and the conditions are significantly different.
Kontaveit vs Ostapenko Head-to-Head
| 26 (Dec. 24, 1995) | Age | 24 (June 8, 1997) |
| Tallinn, Estonia | Birthplace | Riga, Latvia |
| 5-9 | Height | 5-10 |
| 6 | Career WTA Singles Titles | 5 |
| No. 6 (Feb. 14, 2022 | Career High Ranking | No. 5 (March 19, 2018) |
| No. 7 | Current Ranking | No. 13 |
| $7,048,343 | Career Prize Money | $10,514,687 |
| 13-2 | 2022 Won/Loss record | 14-3 |
| 3 | Career Head to Head | 1 |
Kontaveit vs Ostapenko Betting Outlook
That loss to Kontaveit two weeks ago seems to have unleashed the beast within for Ostapenko.
She hasn’t lost since.
The 24-year-old Latvian has won nine straight, and 12 of her last 13.
"I feel like the toughest opponent is myself. Not in all the matches, but in most of them.”
Jelena Ostapenko explains why a new perspective on pressure has her swinging more freely.
Watch out.#DDFTennis Champions Corner: https://t.co/i3HRwsgPZM pic.twitter.com/Iw7IFVZjiQ
— WTA Insider (@WTA_insider) February 22, 2022
In winning Dubai, the 2017 French Open champion defeated four other former Slam champions consecutively.
In Dubai – a higher level tournament – her draw has been less fraught. Still, she comes in having knocked off two more in straight sets: reigning French Open champion Barbora Krejcikova and two-time Grand Slam champion Garbiñe Muguruza.
Ostapenko vs Kontaveit Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | St. Petersburg (SF) | Indoor Hard | 6-3, 6-4 | Kontaveit |
| 2021 | Eastbourne (F) | Grass | 6-3, 6-3 | Ostapenko |
| 2018 | Australian Open (R32) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 | Kontaveit |
| 2015 | Ilkley ITF (R16) | Grass | 6-1, 6-2 | Kontaveit |
Kontaveit is on an eight-match winning streak of her own. So something will have to give.
Assuming she has energy left – and Ostapenko never seems to get tired – she definitely is riding the bigger momentum wave.
Best Bet: Ostapenko in Straight Sets (+245)
Swiatek vs Sakkari Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [7] Iga Swiatek (POL) | +1.5 (-110) | +120 | O 21.5 (-115) |
| [6] Maria Sakkari (GRE) | -1.5 (-125) | -150 | U 21.5 (-120) |
Sakkari Undefeated vs Swiatek
Beyond Ostapenko and Kontaveit, Sakkari is probably in the best form among the rest.
And her edge, coming into a semifinal matchup with Swiatek, is significant.
Their head-to-head – all three Sakkari wins came last year – has had much to do with Swiatek, in some ways.
When they first met in the quarterfinals of the French Open last year, Swiatek was dealing with being the defending champion in Paris, after her surprising win as a teenager the previous year.
It was a lot. Too much.
Swiatek holds up Sakkari, serving at 5-4, 40-love and MP< for quite awhile with her back to the court.
The waterworks were coming, and she couldn't stop it.
Finally one more point, and it was over. pic.twitter.com/UxLTdPz8A3— Stephanie Myles (@OpenCourt) November 11, 2021
In Guadalajara last November at the WTA Finals, Sakkari was ALL out of sorts. She spent part of her loss to Sakkari in tears.
So there is some scar tissue for the Polish player when Sakkari is across the net.
Swiatek vs Sakkari Head-to-Head
| 20 (May 31, 2001) | Age | 26 (July 24, 1995) |
| Warsaw, Poland | Birthplace | Athens, Greece |
| 5-9 | Height | 5-8 |
| 3 | Career WTA Singles Titles | 1 |
| No. 4 (Sept. 27, 2021) | Career High Ranking | No. 6 (Nov. 6, 2021) |
| No. 8 | Current Ranking | No. 6 |
| $5,581,473 | Career Prize Money | $5,894,204 |
| 12-3 | 2022 Won/Loss record | 11-3 |
| 0 | Career Head to Head | 3 |
Sakkari vs Kontaveit Prediction
Swiatek has had a very manageable draw, notably with a routine quarterfinal win over the struggling Sabalenka.
Sakkari has looked in command during back-to-back wins over in-form Americans Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff.
Sakkari vs Swiatek Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | WTA Finals (RR) | Outdoor Hard | 6-2, 6-4 | Sakkari |
| 2021 | Ostrava (SF) | Indoor Hard | 6-4, 7-5 | Sakkari |
| 2021 | French Open (QF) | Outdoor Clay | 6-4, 6-4 | Sakkari |
At this point, the best bet to win the entire tournament outright is Sakkari, who also holds a positive head-to-head against Ostapenko and a close one (6-7) with Kontaveit.
And yet, she has the worst odds (+350 at Barstool Sports)
It’s an tempting prop, at this point.
Best Bet: Sakkari in Two Sets (+110)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
