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Novak Djokovic vs Casper Ruud Odds & Prediction – French Open Final

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Updated Jul 11, 2023 · 8:13 AM PDT

Novak Djokovic celebrates winning his semifinal match against Carlos Alcaraz
Jun 9 2023; Paris,France; Novak Djokovic (SRB) celebrates winning his semifinal match against Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) day 13 at Stade Roland-Garros. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
  • Novak Djokovic is in quest of his 23rd major singles title in Sunday’s French Open final
  • It would give him the all-time lead over Rafael Nadal
  • Read on as we break down his match against Casper Ruud, and pick a winner

Carlos Alcaraz was the favorite to win the 2023 French Open just about from the jump. But he couldn’t answer the bell in the semifinal, and now Novak Djokovic is the prohibitive favorite.

Djokovic vs Ruud Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[3] Novak Djokovic (SRB) -5.5 (-132) -465 O 36.5 (-118)
[4] Casper Ruud (NOR) +5.5 (+100) +350 U 36.5 (-112)

At -465 odds, Djokovic is the favorite in the Djokovic vs Ruud odds for Sunday’s final (8:30 a.m. ET). Ruud is the underdog at +350 odds.

 

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Popcorn Semifinal Fizzles for Alcaraz

As much as people are caught up in the Carlos Alcaraz craze, confident that he would win his first French Open title this year, it was easy to forget how and why Novak Djokovic has won 22 major titles to Alcaraz’s one.

His body, at 36, doesn’t bounce back as it once did. But one thing he – and Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer – learned how to do in their careers is to conserve energy early in the 128-player draws with best-of-five sets every two days, and find some way to get it done.

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Against Alcaraz on Friday, Djokovic wasn’t feeling great by the end of the second set. But Alcaraz, whose easy-going smile helps portray him as an eager kid who’s just positive and happy about … everything, felt the pressure.

It’s physical pressure, as Djokovic pushes you to the limit and beyond. And it was also mental – and that’s what Alcaraz attributed to the cramps he suffered by the end of the second set. They were everywhere, and he couldn’t shake them. And that was basically it.

Djokovic vs Ruud Head-to-Head

Novak Djokovic
VS
Casper Ruud
36 (May 22, 1987) Age 24 (Dec. 22, 1998)
Belgrade, Serbia Birthplace Oslo, Norway
6-2 Height 6-0
93 Career ATP Singles Titles 10
No. 1 (July 4, 2011) Career-Best Ranking No. 2 (Sept. 12, 2022)
No. 3 Current Ranking No. 4
$167,296,242 Career Prize Money $14,177,809
26-4 2023 Won/Loss Record 22-11
4 Head-to-Head Wins 0

The drama for that first semifinal sort of sucked the life out of the second one,  an unexpected one between Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud.

Ruud had done little in 2023 to indicate he could return to the French Open final, where he was bounced by Nadal a year ago.

And Zverev, who left the court in a wheelchair after tearing ligaments in his ankle – also vs Nadal – had done little when he returned in 2023 to indicate he had a semifinal run in him.

In the end, Zverev suffered a thigh injury in practice the previous day and was a shadow of himself, while Ruud looked like the French Open finalist he has been.

Djokovic vs Ruud Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2022 ATP Tour Finals (F) Indoor Hard 7-5, 6-3 Djokovic
2022 Rome Masters (SF) Outdoor Clay 6-4, 6-4 Djokovic
2021 ATP Tour Finals (RR) Indoor Hard 7-6 (4), 6-2 Djokovic
2020 Rome Masters (SF) Outdoor Clay 7-5, 6-3 Djokovic

Ruud’s problem against Djokovic is that, in four previous matches, he’s never taken a set.

Djokovic vs Ruud Prediction

These two have a bit of a bizarre history. They’ve played four times, but only in two different places: in the Rome semifinals outdoors on clay, and at the ATP Tour Finals indoors on hard.

Neither venue has been favorable to Ruud, who just doesn’t have enough to counter all that Djokovic throws at him.

Ruud is essentially a grinder. He wears down his opponents because he hardly ever misses. And he’s able to generate enough speed on the forehand when he’s feeling good to break open points here and there.

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But he doesn’t serve big, and he’ll be facing the best returner (arguably) in men’s tennis history. That can put him on the back foot from the get-go on his own service games.

If there’s a question about Djokovic, it’s whether the body can hold up. Certainly Alcaraz exposed that, to a certain extent. But the Spaniard’s game is much more explosive than Ruud’s.

And as we saw with Djokovic in Australia with the tear in his hamstring, even that didn’t hold him back.

The history on offer – the 23rd major title – might cause some nerves, as it did at the US Open in 2021 when he was going for the calendar Grand Slam. But not enough to drop more than a set.

Best Bet: Djokovic in Four Sets (+250) and -5.5 Games (-132)

 

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