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Rafael Nadal Odds-On Favorite to Win US Open Men’s Singles Ahead of Quarterfinals

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Tennis

Updated Apr 3, 2020 · 10:46 AM PDT

Rafael Nadal shouting
The withdrawal of #1 seed Novak Djokovic due to a shoulder injury has left Rafael Nadal as the -130 favorite to win the US Open. Photo By Carine06 (Flickr) [CC License]
  • Rafael Nadal is now the -130 odds-on favorite to win the men’s singles title at the US Open
  • Betting favorite Novak Djokovic was forced to withdraw due to a shoulder injury
  • Nadal was most recently US Open champion in 2017

Rafael Nadal is now the men’s singles chalk at the US Open.

When #1 seed Novak Djokovic’s wonky shoulder couldn’t shoulder the load, forcing the defending champion and favorite in the US Open odds to retire from his round of 16 match against Stan Wawrinka, it elevated Nadal to the favorite’s role.

Across the leading sportsbooks, his average odds to win the tournament are -130.

Nadal will face 20th-seeded Diego Schwartzman Wednesday in a quarterfinal match.

US Open Men’s Singles Odds

Player Odds
Rafael Nadal -120
Roger Federer +200
Stan Wawrinka +900
Daniil Medvedev +1000
Gael Monfils +2000
Matteo Berrettini +2800
Diego Schwartzman +3300
Grigor Dimitrov +5000

*Odds taken on 09/03/19.

The Spanish star has won 18 Grand Slam titles. That includes US Open wins by Nadal in 2010, 2013 and 2017.

Nadal In A Groove

World #2 Nadal hasn’t lost a match since he fell to Roger Federer in an epic semifinal at Wimbledon. Nadal steamrolled through the competition to win the Rogers Cup. He dropped one set in five matches.

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At Flushing Meadows, #22 seed Marin Cilic was the first player to take a set off Nadal through the first three rounds.

The Spaniard is 19-3 on hard-court surfaces during 2019. His form chart shows a win, a final loss and a semifinal exit in three of his four previous hard-court events this season.

Path Clear for Rafa vs Roger?

In their illustrious careers, one thing that Nadal and Roger Federer have never done is clash in a US Open final.

They’ve met in four French Open finals, three Wimbledon finals and two Australian Open finals. But though they’ve combined to capture eight US Open titles, they’ve never won it by beating the other in the final.

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The stage is set for that to happen this year. The path is clear for a Nadal-Federer final.

Nadal is 7-0 lifetime against Schwartzman. In the semifinal, he’ll get either #13 seed Gael Monfils, who’s dropped 14 of 16 matches to Nadal, or #24 seed Matteo Berrettini, who’s never faced Nadal.

Federer is 7-0 against Grigor Dimitrov, his quarterfinal opponent. In terms of possible semifinal opponents, Federer is 23-3 against Stan Wawrinka. And he’s 3-0 when facing Daniil Medvedev.

Medvedev a US Open Sleeper?

If you’re looking for a price on a US Open winner, take a look at the winner of the Wawrinka-Medvedev quarterfinal.


Medvedev has reached the final in his last three tournaments, all on hard courts. Wawrinka won the US Open in 2016.

It’s Nadal’s to Lose

Nadal looks to be on top of his game and Djokovic, his main nemesis on hard courts is gone.

Federer hasn’t been in a US Open final since 2015 and hasn’t won since 2008. The winner between Medvedev and Wawrinka will knock off Federer in the semis but that’s it.

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Rafa made short work of Medvedev 6-3, 6-0 in the Rogers Cup final. And he’ll do the same at Flushing Meadows.

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