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Semifinalist Matteo Berrettini Has Seen His US Open Odds Shorten From 250-1 to 20-1; Is There Still Value?

Hans Themistode

by Hans Themistode in Tennis

Updated Mar 30, 2020 · 12:29 PM PDT

Matteo Berrettini waiting to return a serve.
Now a semi-finalist, Matteo Berrettini was a +25000 longshot to win the 2019 US Open before the tournament started. Photo by si.robi (wikimedia commons) [CC License]
  • Matteo Berrettini was once a long shot to win the US Open at +25000ย 
  • His trip to the semi-finals has seen his odds improve to +1600
  • Can he continue his Cinderella run or will Rafael Nadal turn the clock to midnight?

During the 2018 season, Matteo Berrettini officially broke out. He finished the year ranked #54 in the world. Those who thought he would regress were sadly mistaken.

He has continued his breakout in 2019 and now sits at #23 in the world. Even with his improvements, he was given virtually no shot to win the last major of the year, the US Open.

Before the tournament started, Berrettini’s odds to win the US Open were a massively long +25000. Ahead of his semi-final clash with Rafael Nadal, his odds have improved to +2000 (on average) and +1600.

2019 US Open Men’s Singles Odds

Player Odds
Rafael Nadal -325
Daniil Medvedev +500
Grigor Dimitrov +700
Matteo Berrettini +1600

*Odds as of 05/09/2019.

Berrettini’s run to the semis was unlikely, to the say the least. In fact, Berrettini was tabbed as the underdog in three of his five wins.

He isn’t just scraping by, either, heโ€™s been relatively dominant.

Berrettini’s first-round win against Richard Gasquet saw the young Italian drop just one set. He went on to oust Jordan Thompson and Alex Popyrin in four sets apiece before dispatching an in-form Andrey Rublev in three.

With two upsets already under his belt, Berrettini made it a third in the quarterfinals when he defeated Gael Monfils in a five-set classic.

The story surrounding Berrettini is an incredible one. Players such as Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas have been tabbed as the next stars in the sport. Berrettini’s name was seldom mentioned. He has now officially made his mark as one of the best young players in the world.

His nice story, however, is just that: a nice story. Lurking in the semi-finals is 18-time Major-winner Rafael Nadal.

Rafael Nadal Eyes Major Number 19

The word “dominant” is not strong enough to describe Rafael Nadal’s run through the 2019 US Open. He has been on another planet when compared to his contemporaries, dropping just one set.

Apart from the second set against Marin Cilic in the Round of 16, Nadal has won every set he’s played without even reaching a tiebreak.

With Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer both falling earlier than expected, Nadal is the only big-name player that still remains. The three-time US Open winner is the only remaining player who’s even reached a Grand Slam final.

Even with both Djokovic and Federer in the tournament, there was reason to believe that Nadal would and could still win the event. Now with both players on the outside looking in, Nadal is the clear cut favorite to bring home his 19th major.

Berrettini has been great thus far but with Djokovic and Federer already eliminated, don’t expect Nadal to waste his opportunity. The US Open is Nadal’s to lose at this point, meaning there is little value on Berrettini despite his relatively juicy odds.

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