- The Washington Mystics are 2.5-point underdogs as they visit the Minnesota Lynx Wednesday
- Minnesota has dropped four of their last five games
- See below for the latest Mystics vs Lynx picks, odds, analysis and best bet
The 6th-seeded Washington Mystics (12-10, 4-6 away) are battling for home court advantage in a WNBA opening round playoff series.
Their next opponent, the 7th-seeded Minnesota Lynx (10-13, 5-8 home), could still make a run at a top-4 seed too, but for now, they’re likely more concerned about staying in the top-8 mix.
Which means Wednesday’s lone primetime matchup in the W has some meaning to it.
Action gets underway July 26 at 8pm ET from the Target Center in Minneapolis, MN. You can watch the game live on NBA TV.
Mystics vs Lynx Odds
|Washington Mystics||+2.5 (-110)||+118||Ov 160.5 (-106)|
|Minnesota Lynx||-2.5 (-110)||-148||Un 160.5 (-120)|
Despite the better record, Washington enters this one as 2.5-point underdogs and +118 on the moneyline, an implied win probability of just 45.87%.
The total is set at 160.5 points – a figure they fell short of in their only meeting of the season — an 80-78 win for the visiting Lynx.
Odds as of July 25 at FanDuel. Be sure to claim a FanDuel promo code to bet on Mystics vs Lynx and other WNBA action.
Mystics Stop Mini-Slide, Beat Phoenix
Even with the injuries piled up, Washington snapped a 2-game slide with a convincing 84-69 win over the Phoenix Mercury last time out. Washington hasn’t allowed a 3-game losing skid all year.
Natasha Cloud led the way with 23 points nine assists, four rebounds and three steals. Brittney Sykes matched Cloud for team-high scorer with 23 points, while adding five boards.
— Washington Mystics (@WashMystics) July 23, 2023
Tops in the league forcing 15.9 turnovers per game, Washington had 19 takeaways against Phoenix, leading to 22 points.
That helped along a unit that was missing 2-time WNBA MVP Elena Delle Donne (ankle), Ariel Atkins (ankle), Shakira Austin (hip) and Kristi Tolliver (plantar fasciitis).
All four are out again Wednesday.
Lynx in Rough Patch
After starting out 0-6, the Minnesota Lynx powered to a 9-9 mark, but they’ve faltered again, dropping four of their last five, including their last game, a 98-81 beating at the hands of the league-leading Las Vegas Aces.
Diamond Miller led the Lynx in scoring with 17 points, five rebounds and three assists, but also had five of Minny’s 15 turnovers. Napheesa Collier had 16, eight rebounds, three assists and two blocks.
DIAMOND. MILLER. 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/NxP5JueZ6C
— Minnesota Lynx (@minnesotalynx) July 22, 2023
As a team, Minnesota shot a dismal 8-for-27 from three-point range, a 29.6% clip. On the year, they’re the 2nd-worst shooting team from distance, hitting only 31%.
They also struggle on the defensive side, allowing the third-most points per game (85.2), while allowing teams to shoot better than 36% from downtown (10th).
Mystics vs Lynx Betting Prediction
If there’s one thing Minnesota is consistently good at, it’s not allowing teams to pick on their mistakes.
Their opponents score a WNBA-low 13.5 points per game off turnovers, they give up the fewest second-chance points (8.9), fast-break points (8.4) and they are surrendering the 3rd-fewest points in the paint.
Mystics vs Lynx Head-to-Head Stats
|81.5 (7th)||Points Per Game||79.2 (8th)|
|43.1% (7th)||Field Goal Percentage||42.5% (10th)|
|32.9% (7th)||Three-Point Percentage||31.0% (11th)|
|33.2 (10th)||Rebounds||34.5 (6th)|
|18.7 (T-8th)||Assists||18.7 (T-8th)|
|13.7 (4th)||Turnovers||13.9 (5th)|
|+2.3 (5th)||+/-||-6.0 (10th)|
Minnesota got roughed up in a meaty part of their schedule, with two games against the Aces, and with top-5 squads Dallas and Atlanta.
In those four losses, they gave up 100 points per game, which isn’t the formula for picking up wins, and it’s dropped the Lynx to a minus-6 in point differential, which ranks 10th in the 12-team league.
The numbers here are pointing us to the total.
Washington has struggled on the road, putting up just 76.8 points across 10 games, nearly nine points less than what they average at home. Their three-point shooting plummets from 35% in their gym to 30% away. They’re also shorthanded.
Couple that with Minnesota scoring 73 points or less in three of their last four, and, though it will be tight, look for this one to settle under the total.
- The Pick: UNDER 160.5 (-106)
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