World Cup 2018 Betting – Injured Arg. Host Uru.

Uruguay (+437) at Argentina (-164), Draw (+280)

Usually a match between the Uruguay and Argentina national teams would feature a head to head battle between two of the best strikers in the world. But Argentina’s Lio Messi is likely to miss Thursday’s World Cup qualifier (7:30 PM Eastern at Estadio Malvinas Argentinas), easing the road for Luis Suarez and his Uruguay teammates.

Messi, who’s suffering from a hamstring injury, won’t be the only key absence for Argentina. Gonzalo Higuain (fitness), Sergio Aguero (calf), and Javier Pastore (foot) are also likely to sit.

All those injuries are going to make life tough for new manager Edgardo Bauza. Bauza replaced Gerardo Martino after Argentina lost a second straight Copa America final against Chile last June. This will be his first match with the team.

Messi or no Messi, Bauza needs his team to pick up points wherever they can. The top four teams from the South American qualifiers will automatically advance to the 2018 World Cup. Argentina, who usually qualify with ease, currently find themselves in third place with 11 points through six fixtures (3-2-1 record). They’re just 1-1-1 at home.

Uruguay, on the other hand, are tied for first with 13 points (4-1-1 record) and a 1-1-1 record on the road. They have a +8 goal differential (12 goals for and four goals against), which is best in the qualifiers. All four goals they’ve surrendered have come on the road.

Argentina has shockingly scored just six goals – tied for the worst mark – while allowing four.

Unlike Argentina, Uruguay should be at full strength on Thursday. Most importantly, Suarez and Edinson Cavani are fit and ready to go, which means the Uruguay offense should continue to roll. (Cavani’s slow start in Ligue 1 is of some concern, however.)

Uruguay had a disappointing Copa America, failing to advance past the Group Stage. However, they’re undefeated in their last three qualifiers (2-1-0). Argentina rolled through the Copa until the final, which they lost on penalties to Chile after a scoreless draw. They also have the better of the recent head-t0-head against Uruguay, going 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.

With Argentina at home but shorthanded, the draw looks like the best value on the board.

Pick: Draw (+280).

Photo credit: Fanny Schertzer, CC BY 3.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0], via Wikimedia Commons.