The Proper Way to Calculate 2019 NFL Strength of Schedule
- How should we be calculating strength of schedule in the NFL?
- See how all 32 teams rank in terms of strength of schedule using the proper calculation
For too long we have wasted our time reading articles that use each team’s record from the previous season to calculate strength of schedule for the upcoming season. Stop this! There are far too many flaws involved in this method.
This is how we should be calculating SOS.
Note: 1 is the most difficult, while 32 denotes the easiest 2019 schedule.
2019 NFL Strength of Scheduled Based on Projected Win Totals
|Rank||Team||Projected Wins of 2019 Opponents at BetOnline|
|6||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||135|
|9||Kansas City Chiefs||134.5|
|13||New Orleans Saints||132|
|17||Los Angeles Chargers||131|
|18||Green Bay Packers||130.5|
|19||San Francisco 49ers||130|
|25||Los Angeles Rams||127.5|
|27||New York Giants||124.5|
|31||New York Jets||121|
|32||New England Patriots||117.5|
Using 2019 projected win totals, we have come up with our own strength of schedule by adding the projected wins of each team’s 16 opponents this season.
Why Using Projected Win Totals for Strength of Schedule is More Accurate
For starters, free agency, the NFL Draft, and other player/coach movement are all capable of dramatically changing a team in just one offseason – see the 2017 Los Angeles Rams under Sean McVay.
Second, injuries/suspensions to star players, namely quarterbacks, can result in a good team suffering through a bad season – see the 2017 Green Bay Packers without Aaron Rodgers. If you’re going to tell me the Packers are a 7-9 team with Rodgers under center, I’m here to call you crazy.
Sure, online betting sites can be influenced by where the money is going, but their win totals still at least reflect the current team, not the past one.
The 2018 Buffalo Bills are a great example of why using projected win totals to calculate strength of schedule is much more appropriate than last year’s record. If we were judging Buffalo by 2017 alone, they would have been counted as a very respectable 9-7 team.
However, the Bills traded QB Tyrod Taylor in the offseason, and entered 2018 with AJ McCarron and Josh Allen under center. Buffalo should not have been viewed as a nine-win team.
Their 6.5 projected wins at Bovada were a much closer projection to what they actually were: a 6-win team.
Another example is the 2018 Houston Texans. Only getting six starts out of Deshaun Watson before he tore his ACL, and missing JJ Watt (among others) for 11 games resulted in the 2017 Texans posting an awful 4-12 record.
But with both of those players back in 2018, they posted an 11-5 record. Regarding them as a 9.5-win team like sportsbooks suggested was much closer to the team they were.
How Can Strength of Schedule Help You as a Bettor?
No offseason NFL bets should be made before at least considering strength of schedule.
Whether you’re betting Super Bowl futures, team win totals, player awards, or even a prop as obscure as the first head coach to be fired, strength of schedule is going to play a major role.
An easy regular season schedule is likely to lead to a higher-seed come playoff time. And with four of the last six Super Bowls having been played by the top seeds in each conference, it’s clear that home field advantage is significant in the postseason.
Past NFL MVP Winners
|Year||NFL MVP||Team Record|
When it comes to player awards, the average number of regular season wins for the last eight NFL MVPs is 12.9.
So once you have narrowed down your list of potentials for the MVP, it would be wise to consult which of your candidates face easy/difficult schedules, since they’ll likely need to win at least 12 games to take home the honor.
Archived NFL Strength of Schedule: 2018