Any Value Betting The Field to Win 2020 CFP National Championship at +1000 When It Doesn’t Include the 15 Biggest Favorites?

• The latest NCAAF prop pits the 15 best teams in the country against the field for the National Championship
• The best teams in the field are Oregon, Texas A&M, Nebraska, and Utah
• The favorites have short -2000 odds, while the field is getting +1000; which side has better value?

Much like most college football fans, I tend to believe Clemson and Alabama will factor into the 2020 National Championship. Not exactly a hot take. The few who think 2019-20 will usher in a new champion are mostly looking at the likes of Georgia, Oklahoma, and Ohio State.

With so much power consolidated at the top of college football, is there any chance that an underdog comes from out of nowhere and wins the CFP National Championship this season? Oddsmakers have set the odds on just that, pitting 15 of the biggest favorites against everyone else in the nation (which, for the record, is 115 other teams).

College Football Prop Bet

*Odds taken 8/20/2019.

Who Are the 15 Favorites?

The implied probability of a -2000 bet is 95.2%. The probability of a +1000 bet is 9.1%. Just looking at the total probability for the 15 “best” teams in the field, you get to about 15%. So, at first blush, it looks like there’s quite a bit of value on the field.

But not so fast.

There’s a huge overround in the odds. The 15 favorites have a cumulative probability of nearly 122%. The total for all 130 FBS teams is about 140%.

In reality, the -2000/+1000 split between the favorites and the field roughly lines up with the probabilities implied by the odds.

Don’t Be Scared Away by a Short Price

Too often we dismiss favorites as not providing value because of the risk needed for a big pay day.  Instead of thinking of this as a sports bet, imagine it as a potential investment. If a friend comes to you and says they have an investment that will net you a tidy 5% return and you’ll be paid four months from now, would you do it?

Presenting: Team 1️⃣2️⃣4️⃣

As @deshaunwatson once famously said, "let's go be 𝙡𝙚𝙜𝙚𝙣𝙙𝙖𝙧𝙮."#ALLIN pic.twitter.com/tPTuN9YwJt

— Clemson Football (@ClemsonFB) August 16, 2019

If you were offered 5% profit for the season you’d likely take it, so why dismiss this wager? The more you’re willing to risk, the more you stand to make of course, but this prop is so one-sided that avoiding a champion from “the field” presents little danger.

“The Field” Offers Little in Terms of Contenders

Quantity over quality rarely works in life and this is a prime example of that. Sure, you get 115 teams if you take the field, but let’s explore that a little deeper.

The CFP Selection Committee has proven that teams outside the Power 5 conferences won’t be respected. If 12-0 UFC couldn’t crack the playoff field in 2017, no Group of 5 team is going to this year. Let’s cross them off.

That leaves 49 teams in the Power 5. Remembering many of those teams have names like Vanderbilt, Kansas and Rutgers, all of a sudden “the field” seems a little less intriguing.

Justin Herbert is looking to make some big plays this season, just like this 50-yard strike 🚀

(📍@TheMaytagMan) pic.twitter.com/3VPeacyONr

— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) August 16, 2019

The shortest odds in the field belong to Oregon at -4000.

Justin Herbert is great and all, but Oregon is ranked just 11th in the Coaches Poll and is a 3.5-point underdog against Auburn in its season opener. Drop that game and the Ducks will need to run the table in the Pac-12 just to get into the playoff.

The next-best odds in the field belong to Texas A&M, which has the toughest schedule in the entire country. The Aggies face Clemson, Alabama, Georgia and LSU this year.

Your best bets beyond those two teams are Utah, Wisconsin and Nebraska.

It’s overwhelmingly likely the field loses this bet.

Take the Favorites

If you’re going to bet this prop, take the best 15 teams in college football. I don’t think every wager needs to be a home run and I like the idea of kicking off my season with a bet that’s likely going to give me a 5% return.

1️⃣1️⃣ days til Kickoff! 👊 #BamaFactor #RollTide pic.twitter.com/2hRRDfwccZ

— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) August 20, 2019

If you disagree and like someone to shock the world, I’d suggest betting that team individually. There’s little value grouping these lesser teams together and trimming your odds. Bet the favorites or, if you’re hell bent on a lottery ticket, pick one team and go for broke.

PICK: 15 Teams Listed* (-2000)