Upset Picks for Week 2 in NFL: Is Another Miami Miracle in Store?

• The Colts were a feisty road dog in Los Angeles, losing in OT. Can they replicate that effort against Tennessee?
• Miami faces a historic spread this week. Is there any chance the Pats slip up in South Beach?
• Like a few NFL teams, my picks were slow out of the gate in Week 1, going 0-2-1 SU, setting us back 1.5 units

Once again, Thursday night kicked off another week of football with a big underdog winning outright. But when we look at the NFL’s Week 2 betting lines, there isn’t a ton of teams getting +250 like the Buccaneers. Most spreads this week are really tight or quite the opposite.

Let’s examine which of them we like.

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans Odds

*Odds taken 9/13/19

A few other road dogs I like (Minnesota and New Orleans) aren’t even getting the full three points you’d expect from an evenly matched game, so there’s little incentive to play those moneylines over the spread (especially since ties still remain very much a thing). But this is the kind of juice I can get behind.

You aren’t supposed to overreact to Week 1, and even if we did, it appears the consensus take of the Titans 43-13 beatdown of the much-hyped Browns is that Cleveland still sucks. No one seems to believe that Tennessee is anything other than their usual 9-7 enigma.

So the narrative of the national media has definitely changed in favor of the #Titans. But the lay NFL fan still sees us as garbage. Only difference is they see the #Browns as HOT garbage. Gonna take more winning to convince them we’re legit. Not worried. The wins are coming…

— Taylor S Hurst (@TitansMan97) September 10, 2019

The Titans offence actually performed better than expected through three quarters, thanks to the return of a healthy Delanie Walker and the emergence of rookie A.J. Brown. But a lot of the strides they made were helped by an undisciplined Browns team that took 18 penalties for 182 yards! The Colts will not provide that kind of assistance this week.

The Chargers have been badly outcoached today. Anthony Lynn & co. simply are not on the same level as Frank Reich’s coaching staff.

— Bolts From The Blue (@BFTB_Chargers) September 8, 2019

Not only is the Indianapolis offensive line more disciplined, it’s the strength of this team, helping Marlon Mack finish Week 1 as the NFL’s leading rusher. And while Jacoby Brissett holds the ball a little too long, he won’t stand back there for eight seconds like Baker Mayfield. The Titans sub-par defensive line is going to have trouble slowing this unit down.

Quenton Nelson may kill a man (on the field) before the end of his NFL careerpic.twitter.com/7QBTtovF2Z

— Surf & Turf Podcast (@surfandturfpod) September 9, 2019

In fact, the biggest thing to worry about in Indy is their kicking game. Adam Vinatieri looked to have retired before the season as well, shanking three kicks in the loss. But considering only one of the last 11 games between these teams has been decided by less than a field goal, I’m betting that it won’t bite the Colts… this week.

Pick: 2.5 units on the Colts moneyline (+165)

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Odds

C’mon!!!! You know you want to! Life’s boring if you don’t believe in miracles.

Honestly, for all the talk of how bad the Dolphins are and how they’re throwing away the season, this is a roster of 52 proud, NFL caliber dudes who don’t want to be the butt of the joke. If anything, the joke will be on the other sideline.

The helmet manufacturer, Xenith, has decided to end its relationship with Patriots’ WR Antonio Brown.

“We look forward to seeing the Xenith Shadow worn by football athletes at all levels of play this fall,” the company said today.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 13, 2019

While Antonio Brown will not go on the Commissioner’s exempt list, whether he plays or not is anyone’s guess at this point. (Remember: Bill Belichick benched his top corner back in the Super Bowl for a reason that still remains a mystery.) But his presence absolutely is a distraction. And the Patriots really don’t need any more; their struggles in Miami are famous, with Brady going 7-10 there in his career.

Patriots favored by 19 points in Week 2 at Dolphins. The last time a road team was favored by that many points was in 2007, when New England was a 19.5 favorite at Baltimore. Disregard: Tom Brady has as many losses in Miami since 2013 (1-5) as he does at Gillette Stadium (50-5).

— Ed Werder (@WerderEdESPN) September 10, 2019

Sprinkle in a little extra Fitzmagic and I can see a way this game doesn’t go the Pats way. Though Fitzpatrick is just 2-5 against New England in his last seven starts, he’s 5-2 ATS: he’s shown an ability to keep his sucky teams within striking distance of the Patriots. And if they’re close, who knows?

Throw in Brian Flores going up against his old team and knowing the weaknesses among their personnel and maybe, just maybe…

Pick: .25 units on the Dolphins moneyline (+1160)