Cardinals (Flaherty) vs Padres (Bullpen) Game 3 Picks and Odds – Oct 2nd

• The San Diego Padres and St Louis Cardinals matchup for the decisive Game 3 of their Wild-Card series on Friday, October 2nd
• The first pitch will be thrown just after 7:00 PM ET at PETCO Park
• See below for the odds, analysis, and best bet for the series finale

The San Diego Padres’ season looked all but over when Zach Davies departed Game 2. A four-run comeback in the second half of the game followed. San Diego ran out 11-9 victors in, the end, forcing a Game 3 on Friday, October 2, at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN.

San Diego has not named a starter for Game 3 of this series. It’s going to be an all-hands-on-deck effort, with a heavily used bullpen being asked to get at least 27 more outs. In contrast, the Cards will turn to a well-rested Jack Flaherty, who last pitched on September 25th, 2020.

San Diego is a slight favorite, nonetheless, in the Cardinals vs Padres odds.

St Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres Game 3 Odds

Odds as of Oct 2nd.

Flaherty Gets His Chance

It was a controversial decision to hold Jack Flaherty until Game 3. The young ace heads into the postseason on the back of a mixed year – even his last few starts were up and down.

Three earned runs in five frames against the Brewers was okay, and the start previous was a gem, as he struck out 11 and gave up just three baserunners in six innings. However, the game before he lasted just three innings and was charged with nine earned.

All of this contributed to a 4.91 ERA on the year, over two runs higher than his Cy Young-contending performance in 2019.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bG3n_r3X74

Flaherty has started three career games against San Diego. The 24-year-old has been dominant, registering a 1.10 ERA with an opponent batting average of .200. He hasn’t faced the Padres this season, however, and this is a much scarier lineup than years past. Hitters were frequently squaring Flaherty up in the regular season – he ranked down in the 28th percentile in expected ERA.

Padres Lean on ‘Pen

Padres manager Jayce Tingler was brutally honest about the Pads’ pitching situation for Game 3.

He said, “I have no idea what we’re going to do with our pitching.”

Jayce Tingler knows as much as you do about tomorrow's pitching plans. Who's pitching, Jayce?

"I have no idea."

— AJ Cassavell (@AJCassavell) October 2, 2020

Chris Paddack and Zach Davies pitched Games 1 and 2, respectively, and both struggled massively. Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger, Tingler’s two best starters, are unavailable for this series and perhaps beyond should the Padres progress.

Paddack and Davies combined for a measly 4.1 innings, leaving the bullpen to do a lot of heavy lifting. The bullpen pitched 13.2 frames, with eight relievers taking the mound in Game 1 and seven in Game 2. Six arms were used on both days.

Chris Paddack before the game: "I'm gonna go out there and dominate"

Chris Paddack during the game: 2.1 IP, 8 H, 6 ER

Wow, you hate to see it 🤭pic.twitter.com/0uoNBK1dpF

— SNY (@SNYtv) September 30, 2020

Garrett Richards and Adrian Morejon would be candidates to function as an opener and give them a couple of early innings, but Richards has pitched in both games and Morejon got four outs in Game 2. This will be a tall task for the Padres bullpen.

High-Scoring Trend to Continue

There are a lot of fatigued pitchers on these two teams. St Louis’ bullpen faltered drastically on Thursday, giving up nine runs in the final three frames, surrendering five homers.

The Cards are desperate for Flaherty to pitch deep into the game, but he has only made it past the fifth inning once since his first start of the season.

First the go-ahead, then the stay-ahead. pic.twitter.com/Rf8ewY49PH

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) October 2, 2020

San Diego’s pitching situation is just as challenging. They will be forced to gamble on some tired arms, perhaps made to go deeper into their bullpen than Tinkler would like.

After the offensive barrage from both teams in Game 2, the run total over is the pick of the bets here again.

Pick: Over 9.0 (-115)