Padres vs Reds Odds, Picks, and Predictions – Martinez vs Mahle

• The San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds face off at Great American Ballpark on Thursday, April 28th
• Bob Melvin’s club has the third-shortest odds to win the stacked National League West (+450) in 2022
• Read below for the Padres vs Reds odds and our betting preview

The San Diego Padres (12-7) face the Cincinnati Reds (3-15) on Thursday at Great American Ballpark. The series finale has a scheduled first pitch of 12:35pm ET. The Padres will send Nick Martinez to the hill, while the home team counters with Tyler Mahle.

San Diego is a road favorite in this spot and has relatively short odds (+450) to win the NL West in the MLB Division odds, trailing only the Dodgers (-250) and Giants (+425).

Meanwhile, Cincinnati has the worst record in baseball. The 2022 campaign was expected to be rebuilding one for David Bell’s club —  opening as +40000 longshots to capture the NL Central. And despite already compiling an 11-game losing streak in the first month of the season, Cincy has maintained those odds. The Reds are expected to win 75.5 games, while the Padres are projected to win 87.5 in expected victory totals. The Padres have taken the first two games of the series.

Padres vs Reds Odds

Odds as of April 27th at BetMGM.

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Martinez has yet to get past the fifth inning in each of his first three outings this season, while the Padres have sported a 1-2 record in his starts. He’s fallen victim to surrendering the long ball in his last two outings, giving up a total of five dingers to the Braves and Dodgers despite only tossing 9.2 innings against them. He allowed four hits, two earned runs, five walks and struck out four over 4.2 innings in an eventual 6-1 defeat to the Boys in Blue last Friday.

Mahle has had a similar fate to Martinez over his first four starts in not getting past the fifth inning in any of them. The dreadful Reds are 1-3 when the 27-year-old’s number has called. He allowed five hits, two earned runs, three walks and struck out three over 4.1 innings in what turned out to be a 5-0 loss to the Cardinals last Saturday.

San Diego vs Cincinnati: Probable Pitchers

San Diego’s 31-year-old starter pitched in Japan for the last four seasons and helped Team USA win a silver medal in the Tokyo Olympics. Now, the former 18th round pick out of Fordham in the 2011 MLB Draft is in the first year of a four-year pact with a club with postseason expectations that could be worth at least $25.5 million. Not bad for a guy who last pitched in the big leagues in 2017 for the Rangers.

Nick Martinez's changeup caught my attention vs. LAD w/ a 46% Whiff% & 35% CSW%, which possesses above-average drop AND break.

2022 changeup:
-25% SwStr%
-44.7% O-Swing%
-57.6% Contact%
-.174 wOBA

The curveball also has 59.1 inches of drop (7.7 vs. avg)!#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/Dh3GgIFjqo

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) April 25, 2022

Meantime, the Reds look to a pitcher with a 6.88 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and .290 OBA through four starts this season. He has walked nine batters while striking out 19 in 17 innings.

People will quote ERA when talking about Tyler Mahle to start the season but every other number besides ERA shows how well he has pitched;

-2.93 xERA
-2.44 FIP
-3.97 xFIP
-10.06 K/9

Clean up his walks a bit, which he will, he’s going to be perfectly fine. #Reds

— Bryce Spalding (@bryce_spalding) April 24, 2022

Nick Martinez vs Tyler Mahle

Padres Own the Reds

Not only has San Diego defeated Cincinnati nine of the last ten times the two have hooked up (including all five matchups so far in 2022), the domination goes back even further — with the Padres taking 12 of the last 13. That mastery continued Wednesday thanks to Eric Hosmer’s torrid start. The Padres first baseman hit his home run of the season Tuesday in a 9-6 win and launched his second long ball on Wednesday. The veteran has gone a combined 4-for-5 along the shores of the Ohio River in this series, while scoring twice, driving in five runs and walking four times.

Eric Hosmer CRUSHED this ball pic.twitter.com/c8vuGgMIwP

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 28, 2022

The Padres have +1700 odds to get to the Fall Classic, while the Reds are +10000 longshots in the World Series odds.

Padres vs Reds Last 10 Meetings

Padres vs Reds Prediction

With San Diego’s utter domination of Cincinnati over the last year-plus, there’s no reason to bet against the Padres in this spot. He may not be the ace of the staff, but Martinez gives the road team a better chance to win than Mahle.

Pick: Padres -1.5 (+140)