Phillies vs Braves Picks & Odds (Aug 2)
By John Perrotto in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Braves are -225 home favorites over the Phillies on Tuesday night
- Nick Nelson (3-1, 3.94) will pitch for Philadelphia against rookie Spencer Strider (5-3, 2.91)
- A look at the Phillies vs Braves odds and matchup can be found below with a prediction
Two National League East teams on winning streaks square off when the Philadelphia Phillies visit the Atlanta Braves at 7:20 p.m. ET Tuesday in the opener of a two-game series at Truist Park.
The Phillies (55-47, 29-22 road) have won five games in a row, including beating the Pirates 8-2 on Sunday in Pittsburgh. The Braves (62-41, 36-21 home) edged the Arizona Diamondbacks 1-0 on Sunday at home to run their win streak to three games.
The Phillies and Braves were both off Monday.
Phillies vs Braves Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | +190 | +1.5 (-105) | Over 8 (-110) |
| Atlanta Braves | -225 | -1.5 (-115) | Under 8 (-110) |
Odds as of August 1st at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Braves are -225 favorites, giving them a 69.23% expected win probability. Atlanta’s World Series odds are +900 and the Phillies are listed at +4000.
The weather forecast calls for a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms around the scheduled first pitch with a temperature of 85 degrees – and a low of 73 – partly cloudy skies and west wind at 5 mph.
Phillies vs Braves Probable Pitchers
Nick Nelson (3-1, 3.94) is expected to start a bullpen game for the Phillies against rookie Spencer Strider (5-3, 2.91). Both will be pitching on six days of rest.
Strider had +10000 NL Cy Young Award odds.
Nelson vs Strider
| 3-1 | Record | 5-3 |
| 3.94 | ERA | 2.91 |
| 3.92 | xERA | 2.75 |
| 1.31 | WHIP | 1.02 |
| 2.09 | SO/W | 3.87 |
Nelson will be making his second start of the season and 28th appearance. This would normally be Kyle Gibson’s turn in the Phillies’ rotation, but he is on the bereavement list following the death of his grandmother.
Nelson’s other start came July 10 when he faced the Cardinals in St. Louis and gave up one run in two innings. He did not factor in the decision in a game the Phillies lost.
#️⃣4️⃣ on #TheFilthiest for 2022-4-29: Nick Nelson's 4-Seam Fastball to Pete Alonso 😯
MPH 🚀: 97.1
RPM 💫: 2094
FiFaX 🤯: 0.764@Phillies #RingTheBell | @Mets #LGM pic.twitter.com/ciatnZj4jX— Dayv Doberne ⚾ (@Sunyveil_Sports) April 30, 2022
Against the Braves, Nelson is 0-1 in his career with a 5.40 ERA over three relief appearance. The only time Nelson has pitched at Truist Park was May 24 and he was charged with two runs (one earned) in one inning out of the bullpen.
Nelson has a 5.12 ERA on the road this season and a 3.86 mark at night. The Phillies are 12-15 in games Nelson has pitched in this year.
Strider has made 11 starts after 11 relief appearances to begin the season. Over his last nine starts, Strider has gone 4-1 with a 3.02 ERA.
Strider beat the Phillies last Tuesday in Philadelphia, allowing one run and three hits in six innings with six strikeouts and one walk. He is 2-0 against them lifetime with a 1.04 ERA in two games (one start).
Spencer Strider could become the first rookie in MLB history with 100+ innings pitched to have a 25.0+ K-BB%, in a single season.
Strider currently has a 27.6 K-BB% through 80.1 innings.pic.twitter.com/tDAU8GkECj
— Kevin Keneely (@KevinKeneely1) July 29, 2022
At home this season, Strider has a 2-1 record and 3.00 ERA in 11 games (five starts). He is 4-2 with a 2.74 ERA in 18 games (nine starts) at night. The Braves are 6-5 in Strider’s starts.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Phillies Batters | Batting Average vs Spencer Strider |
|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | .667 |
| Kyle Schwarber | .200 |
| Rhys Hoskins | .000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | .000 |
| Nick Castellanos | .000 |
| Darick Hall | .000 |
| Bryson Stott | .000 |
| Didi Gregorius | .000 |
| Edmundo Sosa | .000 |
| Matt Vierling | .000 |
| Odubel Herrera | .000 |
| Braves Batters | Batting Average vs Nick Nelson |
| William Contreras | 1.000 |
| Michael Harris II | 1.000 |
| Eddie Rosario | .500 |
| Dansby Swanson | .333 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | .000 |
| Marcell Ozuna | .000 |
| Travis d’Arnaud | .000 |
| Austin Riley | .000 |
| Ehire Adrianza | .000 |
Third baseman Alec Bohm is 2 for 3 against Strider but the rest of the Phillies are only 1 for 26. Braves hitters are a combined 4 for 12 off Nelson.
Phillies vs Braves Betting Outlook
Bohm had four hits, including a double and home run, to lead the Phillies over the Pirates on Sunday. His four hits came in the span of the first five pitches he saw.
The last Philadelphia Phillie with more hits in July than Alec Bohm was Jimmy Rollins:
Bohm (2022) — 33 Hits in 20 Games
Rollins (2011) — 34 Hits in 25 Games pic.twitter.com/XCF9dFOQgE— Phillies Muse (@Phillies_Muse) August 1, 2022
Nick Castellanos also had four hits for the Phillies and J.T. Realmuto added three. Kyle Schwarber hit his NL-leading 33rd home run.
A walk-off double by Austin Riley in the bottom of the ninth accounted for the game’s lone run as the Braves beat the Diamondbacks on Sunday. Riley then got a $10-million, $212-million contract extension Monday.
The Braves designated veteran second baseman Robinson Cano for assignment Monday and acquired utility infielder Ehire Adrianza from the Washington Nationals in a trade.
The Phillies and Braves have split 10 games this season, including four in Atlanta.
Bohm is hitting .390 (16 for 41) against the Braves with three homers and Realmuto is batting .353 (12 for 34) with one double and two home runs. Riley is 15 for 38 (.395) against the Phillies with six doubles and one longball.
AUSTIN RILEY IS THE BEST PLAYER IN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE pic.twitter.com/7uAQH8H7GB
— Barstool Atlanta (@Barstool_ATL) July 31, 2022
The series is also tied at 49-49 since 2017.
Phillies vs Braves Last 10 Games
| Date | Home Team | Away Team | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/27/22 | Phillies | Braves | PHI, 7-2 |
| 7/26/22 | Phillies | Braves | ATL, 6-3 |
| 7/25/22 | Phillies | Braves | PHI, 6-4 |
| 6/30/22 | Phillies | Braves | PHI, 14-4 |
| 6/29/22 | Phillies | Braves | ATL, 4-1 |
| 6/28/22 | Phillies | Braves | ATL, 5-3 |
| 5/26/22 | Braves | Phillies | PHI, 4-1 |
| 5/25/22 | Braves | Phillies | ATL, 8-4 |
| 5/24/22 | Braves | Phillies | ATL, 6-5 |
| 5/23/22 | Braves | Phillies | PHI, 7-3 |
Phillies vs Braves Prediction
The Phillies are rolling and should have a better idea of how to attack Strider after facing his last week. Even though it is a bullpen day, Philadelphia makes for an intriguing underdog pick at a tasty price.
Pick: Phillies ML (+190)
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Sports Writer
John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.
