Warriors vs Grizzlies Odds, Picks & Predictions for April 1
By Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball
Published:
- The Golden State Warriors are 5-point road favorites over the Memphis Grizzlies tonight
- Golden State is second in defensive rating since the All-Star Break
- See the Warriors vs Grizzlies odds, and my picks and predictions below
Two Western Conference teams clinging to top-six seeds meet tonight as the Golden State Warriors (43-31, 20-17 away) face the Memphis Grizzlies (44-31, 25-13 home). Golden State enters half a game back of Memphis, but online sportsbooks expect them to leapfrog the Grizzlies per the latest NBA odds. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:10 pm ET at the FedExForum, in Memphis, TN.
Warriors vs Grizzlies Odds
The Warriors are currently favored by 5-points and -205 on the moneyline. The total sits at 237.5, with Memphis coming back as +170 moneyline dogs. Per the NBA public betting trends, the spread has moved 1.5 points towards Golden State since opening odds were released, while the total has crept up a point.
Warriors vs Grizzlies Predictions
My prediction is that this game underwhelms offensively. Golden State has been playing incredible defense since acquiring Jimmy Butler, locking down the opposition almost every night. The Warriors are 18-5 with Butler in the lineup, and rank second in defensive rating since the All-Star Break.
The danger of course, is that their offense goes bananas, like it did last time out. Golden State put up a season-high 148 points, trouncing San Antonio. The Dubs shot 58% from the field, and 48% from three, burying 21 triples. They reached that number without much help from Steph Curry, who scored just 13 points in limited action.
Curry has been back for two games since suffering a pelvic bruise, but hasn’t looked 100 percent. He’s shot 11-of-31 from the field (35%) and 7-of-20 from three. He’s faced the Grizzlies twice this season, and put up two of his most disappointing games. Curry scored two points in their last meeting, on 0-of-7 shooting. The previous matchup saw him account for only 13 points on nine field goal attempts.
Back to Golden State’s defense, that’s allowed 106 points or less in five of its last nine games. Draymond Green is the favorite in the Defensive Player of the Year odds, and along with Butler has completely transformed the team in their own end. Prior to Butler’s arrival, the Warriors were 25th in defensive rating. Now they sit seventh for the entire season, five spots ahead of Memphis.
As for the Grizzlies, they’re still looking for their first win under interim coach Tuomas Iisalo. They’ve dropped his first two games, losing by 7+ points each time. Memphis enters play on a three-game skid, and has failed to exceed 108 points in four of their last six overall.
As good as Golden State has been post All-Star Break, the Grizzlies have been the polar opposite. Memphis is 20th in Net rating during that stretch, and 15th on offense. Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson have been doing their part to shoulder the offensive burden, but the team needs more from Desmond Bane. Memphis’ third leading scorer has been a model of inconsistency lately. He has 12 or fewer points in three of his last five games, including in last night’s blowout loss to the Celtics.
Warriors vs Grizzlies Pick
- Under 237.5 (-108) at DraftKings
At the moment, the Warriors are playing like an NBA Championship odds contender. The Grizzlies meanwhile, look like a Play-in Tournament team. Golden State’s defense has been stifling opponents on a nightly basis, and Memphis’ offense has regressed since the All-Star Break.
Which is why I’m making under 237.5 my Warriors vs Grizzlies pick. The total isn’t a reflection on how these two teams are playing. Golden State could make me look extremely silly with another offensive barrage, but with Curry playing at less than 100 percent, I don’t think that will happen again.
The last time these two teams met, they failed to reach this total. Seven of the Warriors last nine games have fallen below 237 points, while four of Memphis’ last six contests have as well.
I’m betting Golden State’s defense shows up here, and that they drag the Grizzlies into a slower paced game. The Warriors rank 17th in pace, and are averaging less than 100 possessions per game over their last three outings.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
