Predictions, Picks & Splits for Nationals vs Reds on May 14

• The Washington Nationals look for a 3-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds
• Foster Burns starts for the Nationals while Chase Burns pitches for the Reds, who are both 4-1
• Read below for the my Nationals vs Reds prediction, picks updated odds and betting splits

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The Washington Nationals (20-22) will try to complete a 3-game series sweep on the road against the Cincinnati Reds (22-20).

It’s a great pitching matchup to close out the series, as a pair of 4-1 pitchers — Foster Griffin for the Nats and Chase Burns for the Reds — square off Thursday.

The books have the home favorites avoiding the sweep, setting them as -160 favorites in the MLB odds.

First pitch goes at 12:40pm ET from the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, with MLB TV providing the broadcast coverage.

Nationals vs Reds Prediction

• Best Bet: Reds ML (-160 at bet365)

This contest features a premier pitching duel that points toward a low-scoring affair. The Reds are sending rookie Chase Burns to the mound, who has dazzled across 47.0 innings with a 2.11 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 9.19 K/9 rate. The Nationals will counter with Foster Griffin, who boasts a 2.12 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 46.2 frames.

Pitching Matchup: Foster Griffin vs Chase Burns

It is rare to find a pitching matchup as mirrored as this one. Both Griffin and Burns enter the contest with identical 4-1 records and nearly indistinguishable ERAs.

Both have successfully limited traffic on the basepaths, holding opponents below a .200 batting average. Burns holds a distinctive edge in the punchout department, ringing up batters at a 9.19 K/9 clip compared to Griffin’s 8.10. His ability to generate swings and misses gives him a slightly better FIP (3.76 vs 4.08).

On the flip side, Griffin has been marginally better with his command. The starter for the Nationals is issuing just 2.89 walks per nine innings, edging out Burns’ 3.06 BB/9 rate. Griffin consistently fills up the strike zone, forcing opposing hitters to earn their way on. With both pitchers averaging just shy of six innings per start, bettors should expect the bullpens to remain in the outfield until the later innings.

The Reds have found it surprisingly difficult to manufacture runs at home, sitting near the bottom of the league in home batting average (.217).

However, when the Reds connect, they do extreme damage. They rank third in the league in home average exit velocity (90.1 mph), meaning their lineup is full of boom-or-bust hitters who make hard contact.

They showed that pop last game, and, despite blowing a 5-0 lead in that one, I like the bats to get them enough runs to avoid the sweep.

Nationals vs Reds Picks

Chase Burns Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-141 at DraftKings)
Burns consistently misses bats, generating an elite strikeout rate. Up against a lineup for the Nationals that strikes out frequently, he is well-positioned to eclipse this number.

Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125 at DraftKings)
He’s hitting .400 for the series (4-for-10), and his numbers are excellent on the season: 10 home runs, 31 runs scored and a .520 slugging percentage. He’s a good bet for an extra base-hit Thursday.

Nationals vs Reds Odds and Betting Splits

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change

The Reds enter Thursday afternoon’s contest as moderate home favorites, sitting at -160 on the moneyline at bet365. These odds give the home side a 59.1% implied probability of securing a victory. On the other side of the diamond, the Nationals provide clear underdog value at +136 at FanDuel.

Analyzing the MLB public betting splits , the Reds currently command 68% of the betting tickets, though they’re split right down the middle at 50% for total money wagered on the moneyline.

The public is hammering the Over, with 73% of the money betting on the two teams crossing the eight runs. Those bets are huge, as they only represent 38% of the tickets.

The Under is getting 62% of the bets at 8.5 runs, but getting just 27% of the money.