Ashton Jeanty Becomes Odds-On Favorite to Go #5 to Bears in Tonight’s NFL Draft
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
- Ashton Jeanty’s NFL Draft odds are on the move just hours before the first round gets underway
- The Boise State running back is a massive favorite to be the first running back picked
- The latest NFL Draft odds movement show Jeanty as an odds-on favorite to be picked #5 by the Chicago Bears
We’re mere hours away from the start of the 2025 NFL Draft and rumors and rumblings abound. The odds on all the NFL Draft props have been moving significantly over the last 12 hours. The latest line movement pertains to Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty, the prohibitively-short favorite to be the first RB off the board. Jeanty is
Odds to Be #5 Pick in NFL Draft
Jeanty is now priced at -250 to be the #5 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, which amounts to a 71.43% implied win probability. He’s a slightly longer -210 at FanDuel (67.74%). Odds as of 4:31 pm ET at DraftKings.
Will Jeanty Go #5 to the Bears?
The #5 pick currently belongs to the Chicago Bears, but in this market, the Bears don’t have to draft Jeanty for the wager to cash. If they trade out of #5 and the team they trade with drafts Jeanty, that’s still a win for anyone who bet Jeanty at go fifth overall and a loss for everyone who bet anyone else.
But note that there are related markets on which team will draft Jeanty. In that market, the Bears are -190 favorites, followed by the Jaguar (+140), Raiders (+450), and Patriots (+1200). No other team is shorter than +2200.
Matt McEwan’s latest NFL mock draft, which is based off the betting odds, already had Jeanty going #5 at the start of the day. But his odds were closer to +300 to go #5, which was only a 25% implied probability. That was still the highest of any players, but pales in comparison to the 70%-plus implied probability he currently carries.
Mason Graham Seen as Biggest Threat to Knock Jeanty from #5
Both DraftKings and FanDuel both have Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham as the second-favorite to go fifth overall at +350 and +270, respectively (22.22% and 27.03% implied probability). That would be a reach by any team, though. Graham’s draft position over/under is just 8.5 and the over is favored (i.e. after the ninth-overall pick).
The reason he’s the second-favorite is need. If Chicago keeps the #5 pick, they will have a dire need to beef up a defensive line that surrendered 2,317 rush yards last season (28th in the NFL). But if Graham is their guy, it seems more likely that they’d trade down given that they could likely still get him somewhere between seventh and eleventh.
See SBD’s other NFL Draft coverage:
- NFL Draft Odds to Be First & Second Player Picked at Each Position
- NFL Draft Odds to Be a Top-5 Pick Plus Best Bets
- Here are the Public’s Favorite NFL Draft Bets – Ashton Jeanty Team, 1st-Round QBs & More
- NFL Draft First Round Props & Odds – Over/Under QBs, RBs, WRs
- All the NFL Draft Matchups Available to Bet
- Jaxson Dart Now Favored to Be Top-10 Pick
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
