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Florida State vs Oregon State Odds & Predictions for Game 1

Chris Amberley

By Chris Amberley in College Baseball News

Published:


Daniel Cantu points to the sky as he crosses home plate after a home run versus Tennessee.
Jun 19, 2024; Omaha, NE, USA; Florida State Seminoles first baseman Daniel Cantu (32) celebrates after hitting a home run against the Tennessee Volunteers during the seventh inning at Charles Schwab Field Omaha. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
  • Florida State faces Oregon State on Friday in Game 1 of the Corvallis Super Regional
  • The Beavers went 4-1 in the Corvallis Regional, outscoring their opponents 55-6 over the last four games
  • See the Florida State vs Oregon State odds, below, plus my predictions for Game 1

The Corvallis Super Regional gets underway on Friday, June 6, with #9 Florida State (41-14) facing #8 Oregon State (45-13-1). These two programs are very evenly matched, with each club boasting an elite lineup and a stable of high-quality pitchers. The winner will advance to the College World Series in Omaha, Nebraska, but even oddsmakers are having trouble identifying a favorite.

First pitch for Game 1 is scheduled for 6pm ET at Goss Stadium at Coleman Field, in Corvallis, Oregon, with ESPN2 and ESPN+ providing the coverage.

Florida State vs Oregon State Predictions

  • Over 11 (-115)

As of Thursday evening, both teams boasted identical -115 moneylines for Game 1. The Seminoles and Beaves rank 7th and 6th respectively in the College World Series odds, and it’s hard to poke holes on either side.

Starting pitchers for Game 1 have not been announced, but we have a very good idea who the candidates are. On the Florida State side, we’re looking at either be Jamie Arnold or Joey Volini. My inclination is that the ladder will get the ball first, despite Arnold being arguably the top prospect in the 2025 MLB Draft.

Volini is the fresher or the two arms, having not pitched since last Friday. He threw only 45 pitches in FSU’s regional win over Bethune-Cookman, after the team elected not to bring him back out after a 2+ hour rain delay. Arnold on the other hand, went 7 innings the following day, racking up a season-high 13 strikeouts.

No matter who gets the ball, the assignment is a difficult one. Oregon State is one of the most dangerous lineups remaining. They just outscored their opponents 55-6 over their final four regional wins, and don’t have any holes in their lineup. As a team, the Beavers are slashing .292/.408/.506 this season. They feature multiple 18+ home run hitters, led by future top-10 pick Aiva Arquette.

YouTube video

Even more impressive, is their patience at the plate. Oregon State’s lineup was top-7 nationally in walk rate, consistently forcing opposing pitchers to throw strikes. When they do, the Beavers punish them by averaging 8 runs per contest.

FSU vs ORST Offensive Stats

.311AVG.292
433R449
100HR98
.528SLG.506

As for the Beavers plan on the mound, it looks like it will be either Eric Segura or Dax Whitney that will toe the rubber. Segura is working with the most rest after starting the first game of the Regionals, but lasted less than 1 inning versus Saint Mary’s. Whitney on the other hand, pitched 6 innings in the first elimination game against TCU, striking out 12.

I mentioned how strong the Oregon State lineup is, well the FSU bats are just as potent if not more. The Seminoles boast a better slash line than Oregon State (.311/.407/.528), ranking top-22 in batting average, slugging percentage and home runs. They hit for power and speed, and feature four players with 15+ homers. Like the Beavers, they also average 8 runs per game, and outscored their opposition at Regionals 21-7 over three contests.

Both of these lineups have the ability to overcome good pitching, and since it doesn’t look like Arnold will take the ball in Game 1, I’m betting over 11 runs in this matchup. There’s just too much upside for both teams at the dish, and far too many elite hitters to keep this game low scoring.

Florida State vs Oregon State Odds

Bet TypeFlorida StateOregon State
Moneyline-115-115
Run Line-1.5 (+135)+1.5 (-175)
TotalO 11 (-115)U 11 (-115)

The best odds we can get on over 11 runs is -115 at Bet365. Florida State is currently laying 1.5 on the runline at +135 odds, with the Beavers coming back at -175 to cover as +1.5 runline underdogs.

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Oregon State has scored double-digit runs in four of its past seven outings, while five of Florida State’s last eight games have produced at least 12 runs. Expect the Corvallis Super Regionals to start off with a bang, with plenty of fireworks from both lineups.

Chris Amberley
Chris Amberley

Sports Writer

As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.

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