Updated Paul vs Chavez Jr. Prediction After Weigh-ins

• Both Jake Paul and  Julio Chavez Jr. successfully made weight Friday
• Despite looking better than recent years, Chavez Jr.’s body language raises concerns heading into Saturday
• Read below for our updated Paul vs Chavez prediction after watching Friday’s weigh-ins

Jake Paul and Julio César Chávez Jr. both made weight Friday afternoon ahead of their cruiserweight showdown Saturday night at the Honda Center. What I saw at the scales made me even more confident that Paul will stop the former middleweight champion.

Here’s my updated Paul vs Chavez Jr. prediction after watching both fighters step on the scale.

Paul vs Chavez Jr. Weigh-in Breakdown

The good news for Chávez Jr. is he actually made weight. That’s not always a given with him. He weighed 198.4 pounds, safely under the 200-pound cruiserweight limit. Paul came in at 199.4 pounds.

But here’s what stood out: This is the heaviest Chávez Jr. has ever been for a professional fight.

The 39-year-old Mexican fighter made his name at 160 pounds, where he won the WBC middleweight title back in 2011. He’s fought as high as light heavyweight before, but never at this weight. Meanwhile, Paul looked comfortable at 199.4, coming down from the 227 pounds he weighed for the Mike Tyson fight.

More telling than the numbers was how each fighter looked. Chávez Jr. appeared to be in better shape than we’ve seen in recent years, but something seemed off. Maybe it was the wear and tear from a long career. Maybe it was fighting 38 pounds above where he won his world title. Either way, he didn’t look like a guy ready for war.

Paul? He looked relaxed and confident. There’s a difference between putting on a brave face and genuinely believing you’re about to knock someone out. Paul had the look of the latter.

Updated Paul vs Chavez Prediction: Late Stoppage

For those who haven’t been following this fight closely, let me explain why I like Paul to win by knockout, specifically in the later rounds.

Chávez Jr. brings real boxing pedigree to this fight. He’s the son of a legend, a former world champion himself, and owns a 54-6-1 record with 34 knockouts. He’s only been stopped twice in 61 professional fights. You don’t compile that kind of resume without being tough as nails.

That’s why I’m giving him respect early. His experience and boxing IQ should keep him in the fight for the first half. He knows tricks Paul hasn’t even thought of yet.

But Father Time is undefeated, and Chávez Jr. is pushing 40 with a lot of hard miles on his body. He’s only fought once in the past three and a half years. The extra weight he’s carrying won’t help his stamina either.

Paul has youth, size, and activity on his side. The 28-year-old has fought seven times since Chávez Jr.’s last meaningful bout. That kind of ring rust doesn’t just disappear because you had a good training camp.

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Paul vs Chavez Betting Analysis: The Smart Money Play

After seeing the weigh-ins, I’m more confident than ever that Paul wins by knockout. The question is when.

My updated Paul vs Chavez prediction still targets rounds 7 through 9. By then, Chávez Jr.’s gas tank will be running low, the extra weight will feel like a ton, and Paul’s pressure will be too much. But I’ll admit I’m less certain about the exact round after seeing how the fighters looked Friday.

What I am certain about: Paul by KO/TKO at +140 to +150 offers real value. If you want to get more specific, Paul to win in rounds 7-9 pays anywhere from +800 to +1000 depending on your sportsbook. That’s where the smart money goes.

Could Chávez Jr. prove me wrong and go the distance? Sure. He’s tough and proud. But everything I saw at the weigh-ins tells me this ends with Paul’s hand raised and Chávez Jr. wondering why he took this fight.

My final updated Paul vs Chavez prediction: The Problem Child gets it done inside the distance. Bet on that at the top sports betting apps.

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