Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Odds, Prediction, and Pick for Monday Night Football

• The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites over the Jaguars on Monday Night Football
• Patrick Mahomes is fresh off his first 4 TD performance since Week 10 of 2023
• See the Chiefs vs Jaguars odds, plus my predictions and picks for Monday Night Football

All of a sudden, the Kansas City Chiefs (2-2, 1-1 away) look like championship contenders again. Patrick Mahomes and company are fresh off back-to-back wins and, based on the Monday Night Football odds, online sportsbooks expect a third straight victory against the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1, 2-0 home) on October 6th.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm ET from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL, with ESPN and ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

KC Chiefs vs JAX Jaguars Odds

KC is currently favored by 3.5 points and -198 on the moneyline. The Jaguars come back as +164 underdogs, while the total sits at 45.5. According to the NFL public betting percentages, total bettors are expecting a high-scoring game. The over is drawing 63% of the tickets as of Sunday, and 72% of the over/under handle.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction

Turns out all it took for the Chiefs offense to look like a Super Bowl 60 odds contender was the return of Xavier Worthy. The sophomore receiver returned from injury in Week 4 and torched the Ravens secondary. Worthy had five catches for 83 yards, and two carries for an additional 38 yards.

Worthy’s speed gave Baltimore fits, and more importantly drew coverage away from other KC receivers. As a result, Chiefs were running wide open all over the field and Mahomes took advantage. The former MVP tossed 4 TD passes for the first time since Week 10 of 2023, connecting with a different receiver for each score.

The problem is, Worthy popped up on the injury report late Sunday and has been downgraded to questionable with a shoulder/ankle injury. Anytime a player is downgraded this late in the week, his chances of playing are greatly reduced.

When healthy, Worthy is one of the best deep threats in the game. Mahomes has been much more willing to attempt big-time throws this season, which means Tyquon Thornton will be busy if Worthy is ruled out. Mahomes has connected on 10 throws of 20+ yards so far, after completing just 22 all of last season.

Patrick Mahomes 2025 Stats

Teams have had plenty of success targeting the Jaguars deep this season, as they’ve faced a league-high 27 vertical attempts. The Jacksonville defense has been living off turnovers, but regression is coming and I bet it starts on Monday night. The Chiefs have committed only one turnover all season, tied for the fewest in the NFL.

KC’s offense should find success in this game with or without Worthy, but I wouldn’t rush to bet them against the spread. Jacksonville’s offense can certainly punch back, which is why I’m predicting a high-scoring game.

Chiefs vs Jaguars Pick

For the first time in a while, the Jaguars have an identity. This is a team that can run the ball efficiently, which helps take pressure off Trevor Lawrence. Travis Etienne is in the middle of a breakout season, leading all qualified running backs with a 6.1 yards per attempt average.

He’s tied for the second-most 10+ yard rushes, and is ripping off 6.6 yards per attempt on zone runs. That spells trouble for the Chiefs defense, which ranks 31st in run stop rate. That unit has been especially bad versus outside zone runs, yielding 5.0 yards per rush and the third most explosive runs.

Back to Lawrence, who’s actually due for some positive regression. The Jaguars receivers lead the league in drops this season, while Brian Thomas Jr. has just 12 catches after a monster rookie season. Thomas is too good to stay this quiet for long, and should have plenty of time to get open given how the Chiefs are bottom-six in pass rush win rate.

With both teams primed for success offensively, this game should produce plenty of fireworks. I’ll take over 45.5 as my Chiefs vs Jaguars pick.