Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Picks, Prediction & Updated Betting Lines (Week 7)
By Ryan Potts in NFL News
Published:
- Two NFC East contenders look to answer back after last-second losses in Week 6
- Will the Cowboys defense continue to hemorrhage points?
- Read below for my Commanders vs Cowboys pick as well as the updated betting lines
The Washington Commanders (3-3) and Dallas Cowboys (2-3-1) are both coming off close losses, but a win puts them squarely in the mix in a chaotic NFC East. AT&T Stadium in Arlington plays host at 4:25 PM ET on a Fox broadcast.
Continue reading for my Commanders vs Cowboys pick, the current WSH/DAL betting lines, and three key matchups to watch.
WSH Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Pick
- Commanders moneyline (+110)
Usually, I would recommend just taking the points in case of shenanigans, but I anticipate a particularly high-scoring game, so Commanders +2 has less value to me. Instead, I am backing the Commanders to win as road favorites for the second time this season (Chargers). Last season, the Commanders won outright as an underdog six different times, including four road games.
The Cowboys are no strangers to losing as favorites this season, going 1-2 straight-up and 0-3 against the spread as a favorite. Their lone straight-up win was an overtime win over the Giants. Last week, they allowed Rico Dowdle to turn into prime Earl Campbell and bludgeon their run defense into pieces, losing as three-point favorites.
Anytime I can get Jayden Daniels with plus-money, I will take my chances. I am backing the Commanders Moneyline in this rivalry game.
Commanders vs Cowboys Predictions
Welcome Back, CeeDee Lamb!
CeeDee Lamb will make his triumphant return this week, playing for the first time since Week 3. In his first two games, he had at least seven catches and 110 yards, flashing as perhaps the best receiver in the NFL. He left Dallas’ Week 3 loss without a target before missing the next three games.
Lamb, surprisingly, has never victimized the Commanders for a 100-yard game, but he did have a 98-yard, two-touchdown outing in the 2023 regular season. Today could be the day for Lamb to go crazy and get back on track toward a 1,000-yard season.
Without Lamb in the lineup, George Pickens stepped in admirable as a No.1 wide receiver. In the three-plus games without Lamb, Pickens hauled in 24 passes for 427 yards and five touchdowns. With Lamb, Pickens will slide back into the No.2 role, but he is still a major touchdown threat.
Points, Points, Points
Entering play on Sunday, the Cowboys are the NFL’s No.3 scoring offense and No.31 scoring defense. The average Cowboys game has featured over 60 points this season. The Commanders are closer to the middle of the pack – their games average 47.3 total points per game – but they have a top-10 scoring offense even Jayden Daniels missing multiple games.
With a high-flying game projected, this is the week to gamble on anytime touchdown scorers and alternate overs. In last season’s 34-26 Cowboys season, seven unique players found the end zone, including five players in the last 5:16 of game time.
The likes of Lamb (+125, FanDuel), Pickens (+170, FanDuel), Daniels (+185, ESPN Bet), and even Prescott (+600, ESPN Bet) could find pay dirt today.
Bill Merritt the Football Guy
Dallas has a bottom-10 rushing defense by both total yardage allowed and yards per rush allowed. The Commanders will counter with seventh-round rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt (also known as Bill). Croskey-Merritt has average 5.7 yards per rush, shining particularly with 111 yards and two touchdowns against the Chargers two weeks ago.
Croskey-Merritt leads the NFL in success rate, gaining adequate yardage or a first down on 65% of his rush attempts. He has scored four touchdowns this season. The Cowboys have allowed six rushing touchdowns on the season.
Commanders vs Cowboys Betting Lines
The Cowboys are slight home favorites with the total between 54 and 54.5 in the current NFL odds. Over bettors can take over 54 at bet365 for -110 odds. Under bettors can get under 54.5 on BetMGM for -110 odds.
Dallas bettors can get the Cowboys on the spread at -1.5 on BetMGM for -110 odds or -122 on the moneyline at FanDuel. For Washington bettors, take the Commanders at +2 at Fanatics (-110 odds) or +110 odds at ESPN Bet on the moneyline.
WSH vs DAL: Last Five Matchups
In recent seasons, the Cowboys have controlled the rivalry. In their last eight matchups, the Cowboys are 6-2 including sweeps in 2021 and 2023. Last season, the squads had an entertaining split, but neither matchup featured Dak Prescott. Jayden Daniels started both games, but he only played part of the Week 18 game as the Commanders rested for the playoff run.
Prescott is 11-2 in his career against Washington, tossing 27 touchdowns to just five interceptions. He has a whopping 106.6 passer rating in these games.
Daniels is officially 1-1 against Dallas. He threw two interceptions in Washington’s loss last season and only threw 12 passes in Washington’s win. He has three total touchdowns and a 76.5 career rating.
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Ryan Potts is a veteran football and baseball content creator. He was previously a credentialed NFL media member, covering the draft, bombine, and Super Bowl. He has been featured on Atlanta sports talk radio and Arizona student radio. Ryan is a journalism graduate from the University of Arizona.
