Final Missouri State vs New Mexico State Prediction & Prop Bets to Target 

• A pair of 3-3 C-USA teams square off on Wednesday night
• It appears that points will be at a premium in Las Cruces
• Check out my Missouri State vs New Mexico State prediction as well as the best prop bets to target below

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FBS newbies Missouri State (1-1 in C-USA) head west to face the New Mexico State Aggies (1-2 in C-USA) to continue the Week 9 slate of college football. Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces plays host on Wednesday, Oct. 22nd, for a 9 PM ET kickoff. CBS Sports Network will broadcast the game.

I have provided my Missouri State vs New Mexico State prediction as well as three prop bets for tonight’s action below.

Missouri State vs New Mexico State Prediction

• Under 51.5 (-114, BetRivers)

Neither team has been particularly effective at scoring this season. Missouri State ranks 110th in FBS, averaging 21.7 points per game. Missouri State has scored more than 22 points just once, scoring 42 points against FCS Tennessee-Martin.

New Mexico State is marginally better, averaging 23.0 points per game, good for 98th in FBS. However, the Aggies’ average is buoyed by a 37-point breakout against Sam Houston – an 0-7 team with the second-worst scoring defense in FBS. New Mexico State has scored over 21 points just twice this season.

Neither team has been featured much in high-scoring affairs. Both of Missouri State’s FBS wins came in games with fewer than 45 points scored. None of New Mexico State’s wins were games that featured even 48 points.

The through line I am following is that both teams are looking to keep the scoring manageable. Neither team has a particularly dominant defense, but both teams have higher-ranked defenses than offenses. This is particularly impressive for Missouri State considering they allowed 73 points to USC in the season opener.

Excluding the USC game, Missouri State has allowed 21.0 points per game, a mark that would be in the top third of FBS scoring defenses. New Mexico State has allowed 24.0 points per game, good for 67th in the country.

I have serious doubts that these offenses will be able to move the football and find the end zone tonight. I expect the defenses to rule the day as Under 51.5 cashes. The under has hit in five straight Missouri State games.

Missouri State vs New Mexico State Top Props

• Ronnel Johnson (MOST) Over 3.5 Receptions (+136, FanDuel)
• Under 6.5 Touchdowns (-125, ESPNBet)
• Logan Fife (NMST) Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+105, Underdog)

Pick 1: Ronnel Johnson (MOST) Over 3.5 Receptions (+136, FanDuel)

Ronnel Johnson only has a catch in four of six games this season, but he has five catches in each of the last two games. Johnson has averaged a shade under five targets per game, but he has at least six targets in each of the previous three games. Last week, he caught his first touchdown of the season and had a season-best 69 yards.

Ronnel Johnson wins the one-on-one battle ‼️

📺 ESPN2 | https://t.co/7UzHKjA3ha#OutHitOutHustle | #ProveIt | #WeekdayCUSA pic.twitter.com/tOZbdyj74r

— Missouri State Football (@MoStateFootball) October 9, 2025

One key to this hitting is Missouri State’s inclination to pass the ball. They rank 55th in pass attempts per game but only 109th in rushing attempts per game. I will take my chances with Missouri State’s No.2 target catching four passes today.

Pick 2: Under 6.5 Touchdowns (-125, ESPNBet)

Keeping in the spirit of the under, I am backing Under 6.5 Touchdowns to be scored in this game. This under has hit in four of six Missouri State games and four of six New Mexico State games.

Both teams have scored 15 touchdowns this season, an average of 2.5 per game. Additionally, both teams have been content to settle for field goals at times. New Mexico State’s Ryan Hawk leads C-USA with 11 made field goals and 15 attempted field goals. Missouri State’s Yousef Obeid is one attempt behind, making 9-of-14 kicks.

In other words, both Missouri State and New Mexico State lean conservatively in their play calling in scoring situations. Both teams are averaging 0.6 fourth-down conversions per game, ranking in the bottom 25 of the country.

Pick 3: Logan Fife (NMST) Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+105, Underdog)

The Aggies’ signal caller has thrown for multiple touchdowns in three of six games this season. While I have my questions about both the over and the touchdown total in this game, it is solid value to get Logan Fife at +105 odds to throw multiple touchdowns.

King hauls in the 40-yard bomb from Fife 💥

📺 @CBSSportsNet @NMStateFootball | #WeekdayCUSA pic.twitter.com/uUZ5CMCf23

— Conference USA (@ConferenceUSA) October 3, 2025

In three conference games, Fife has thrown multiple touchdowns twice, including last week. He has at least 26 pass attempts in every game this season, and he has multiple touchdowns in three of the four games he has at least 32 attempts.

While this could run counter to the under 6.5 touchdowns bet, New Mexico State’s primary method of scoring touchdowns is through the air. This season, they have nine passing touchdowns (eight from Fife) and just four rushing touchdowns, along with two defensive touchdowns.