LSU vs Alabama Prediction, Line & Same-Game Parlay – Week 11 SEC Clash

• #4 Alabama is a 10.5-point favorite over LSU in tonight’s Week 11 SEC clash
• The under has hit in eight of the Tigers last 12 games
• See below for my LSU vs Alabama prediction, plus the betting line and my same-game parlay picks

At the start of the season, the annual LSU vs Alabama showdown projected to be a clash of two of the SEC’s top teams. But things don’t always work out as planned. The Crimson Tide (7-1, 5-0 SEC) have held up their end of the bargain, but the Tigers (5-3, 2-3 SEC) season has been a disaster. Online sportsbooks expect LSU’s struggles to continue, pegging Bama as big favorites in the college football odds.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm ET from Bryant-Denny Stadium, in Tuscaloosa, AL, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my LSU vs Alabama prediction, line and same-game parlay picks.

LSU vs Alabama Prediction

Tonight will mark the first Tigers game since they fired Brian Kelly. LSU dropped three of the final four contests of the Kelly era, with the nail in the coffin coming as a result of a 49-25 home loss to Texas A&M. The Tigers offense has failed miserably to live up to expectations, ranking 111th in rushing success rate and 93rd in yards per pass.

Garrett Nussmeier started the season as a projected top-5 NFL pick, but he’s been unable to shake his turnover woes. Nussmeier has just one 255+ passing yard game on his 2025 resume, and is commanding an offense that ranks seventh worst in the country in points per quality drive.

Things won’t get any easier versus the Tide, who have been soaring up the CFP odds board. Alabama has ripped off seven straight wins since their opening week loss. They’re a perfect 5-0 in conference, and are fresh off four straight wins versus ranked opponents.

QB Ty Simpson deserves plenty of credit for the Tide’s success, but I want to give the defense its flowers. Since surrendering 31 points to Florida State in their season debut, Bama hasn’t allowed anyone to clear 24 points. That includes Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee, who were all ranked in the top-16 when they faced the Tide.

Alabama Pass Defense Stats

Alabama’s defense matches up extremely well versus the Tigers, who are one of the pass happiest teams in college football. The Crimson Tide excel in pass defense, ranking in the top-16 in passing yards allowed, yards per pass, interception rate and PFF coverage grade.

If there’s a weakness on that side of the ball it’s against the run, but LSU’s rushing attack has been stuck in the mud all season.

I don’t expect that to change, which is one of the reasons I’m making under 49.5 points my LSU vs Alabama prediction. I also don’t expect a ceiling performance from Simpson tonight, as the Tigers secondary is a clear strength of their defense – more on that later.

LSU vs Alabama Line

49.5 is the consensus total number among sportsbooks, with Bet365 offering the lowest juice on the under at -110. Spread wise, it’s painted Bama -10.5 across the industry, as the Tide look for their sixth cover in their last seven games.

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Per the college football public betting trends, the under has been a profitable bet in LSU games lately with that side of the total cashing in eight of the Tigers last 12 contests.

LSU vs Alabama Same-Game Parlay

When it come to crafting a same-game parlay, I want to build on the theme of this game failing to meet offensive expectations.

Simpson has racked up some huge performances in tight games, but this contest isn’t going to require a ceiling performance. As a comfortable favorite, Alabama should be able to lean on its rushing attack, limiting Simpson’s attempts. The Heisman Trophy odds candidate has thrown the ball 31 times or less in three of his past four games, and has fallen short of 276.5 passing yards in four of his last five starts.

Another reason to be pessimistic on Simpson’s yardage total is the way LSU plays defense. Their veteran secondary ranks 26th in coverage per PFF, and does an excellent job at limiting explosive plays. They’re much more vulnerable in the short passing attack and on the ground, which is where the Tide will attack.

I’ll round out my LSU vs Alabama same-game parlay with under 45.5 rushing yards for Harlem Berry. The freshman has seen fewer than 10 carries in all but one game this season, and with game script likely working against them, the Tigers project to be passing heavily in catch-up mode.