Bills vs Texans Picks, Predictions & Updated Betting Odds for TNF (Week 12)

Thursday Night Football in Week 12 features a pivotal AFC clash with significant playoff implications. The Buffalo Bills (7-3, 2-2 away, 5-5 ATS, 5-5 O/U) travel to face the Houston Texans (5-5, 3-2 home, 4-6 ATS, 3-6-1 O/U) at NRG Stadium at 8:15 pm ET/7:15 pm CT.

This game pits Buffalo’s explosive offensive efficiency against an opportunistic Houston squad that relies heavily on turnover creation to stay competitive. Can Houston’s defense create enough chaos to neutralize Josh Allen’s relentless attack?

Buffalo enters as considerable road favorites, thanks in large part to Texans quarterback CJ Stroud (concussion) being ruled out. I have set out my Bills vs Texans picks and predictions, plus the latest TNF odds, below.

Bills vs Texans Week 12 Expert Picks & Predictions

Spread Pick: Buffalo Bills -5.5 (-120) at Underdog

The driver behind this pick is the stark disparity in offensive efficiency. Buffalo’s ability to sustain drives and convert scoring opportunities stands in sharp contrast to Houston’s red-zone struggles, even with Stroud under center.

Offensive Efficiency Breakdown

While Houston’s +6 turnover differential provides a legitimate path to keeping this contest competitive, their glaring red-zone inefficiency creates a fatal flaw. The Texans have converted just 43.3% of red-zone opportunities into touchdowns, settling for field goals far too frequently. Against a Bills offense averaging 29.2 points per game, trading touchdowns for field goals establishes an unsustainable deficit.

Key Situational Trends Supporting the Buffalo ATS:

• Buffalo is 7-2 ATS as road favorites of 3+ points over the last two seasons
• The Bills are 6-1 ATS following games where Josh Allen throws for 300+ yards
• Houston is 2-6 ATS at home in their last eight vs teams with winning records

Stroud’s absence only magnifies these offensive execution issues, making it exceptionally difficult for Houston to match Buffalo’s scoring pace.

Game Total Pick: Under 43.5 (-105) at BetMGM

This selection contradicts Buffalo’s high-scoring reputation but aligns with several compelling contextual factors pointing toward a lower-scoring affair.

Supporting Factors for the Under:

• Texans Quarterback: Davis Mills will start, which causes Houston’s offensive ceiling to drop significantly. His passing-yards prop sits at just 210.5, suggesting oddsmakers expect limited aerial production
• Bills Receiver Depth Issues: With Curtis Samuel and Mecole Hardman both missing practice, Buffalo’s passing attack lacks its typical depth, potentially leading to a more conservative, ground-based approach
• Defensive Pressure Potential: Both defenses generate consistent quarterback pressure (Bills: 26 sacks, Texans: 25 sacks), which is likely stall drives.

Situational Trends Supporting the Under:

• Buffalo games have gone under in seven of the last ten on short rest
• Mills-quarterbacked games have averaged just 38.2 total points over his last five starts

Best Player Prop Bet: Dalton Schultz Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel

Regardless of Houston’s starting quarterback, tight end Dalton Schultz presents exceptional value at this modest number. The prop creates multiple paths to success based on game script and offensive philosophy.

• Backup Quarterback Safety Net: When backup Davis Mills starts, tight ends historically become primary security blankets.
• Consistent Target Share: Even with CJ Stroud healthy, Schultz maintains a reliable 15% target share, easily capable of reaching 38.5 yards on three to four receptions.
• Big Play Potential: With a longest reception prop at 15.5 yards, Schultz can approach this number on a single catch while maintaining his underneath reliability.

This represents one of the most defensible props on the board given the quarterback uncertainty and Schultz’s versatile role in Houston’s offensive scheme.

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Odds

Buffalo enters as significant road chalk. Against the spread, Buffalo is favored by as many as six. On the moneyline, the Bills are priced at -270 or shorter. Houston is as long as +220 to win straight-up. The total sits at 43.5 across the board, and the majority of books have -110 odds on both sides.

Odds commentary as of 12:07 pm ET, November 19th. Claim the pre-registration offers from Caesars Sportsbook Missouri before launch in December 2025.