Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Prediction, Spread & Egg Bowl Preview

• Ole Miss looks for its first-ever 11-win regular season
• Mississippi State looks to play spoiler
• Read below for my Ole Miss vs Mississippi State prediction as well as the betting odds for the Egg Bowl

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The No.7 Ole Miss Rebels (10-1, 6-1 in the SEC) face their No.1 rival in the Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-6, 1-6 in the SEC). Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville will play host to a noon kickoff on Black Friday (Nov. 28). ABC will carry the broadcast.

I have locked in my Ole Miss vs Mississippi State prediction and pick for the Egg Bowl. Will Ole Miss stay alive in the SEC race?

Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Prediction

• Ole Miss 31, Mississippi State 20

I predict Ole Miss to win a reasonably close game, tacking on a touchdown late to reduce Rebels fans’ stress levels late in the afternoon.

For SEC purposes, Ole Miss must win and have both Alabama and Texas A&M lose. If all three results happen, Ole Miss will get a rematch with Georgia in the SEC Title Game.

Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Spread

The sportsbooks have Ole Miss as a healthy road favorite for this Black Friday rivalry game. The Ole Miss vs Mississippi State line for the total is set between 62.5 and 63.5 points. Over bettors can get over 62.5 at FanDuel for -110 odds. Under bettors can get under 63.5 on BetRivers for -122 odds.

Ole Miss bettors can get the Rebels at -7 on the spread at Fanatics (-105 odds) or -260 on the moneyline, also at Fanatics. Mississippi State bettors can get the Bulldogs at +7.5 on the spread at FanDuel (-120 odds) or +240 on the moneyline at ESPNBet.

Odds as of November 29, 2025, at consensus sportsbooks. Make sure you check out the best College Football betting apps to bet on the Egg Bowl.

Ole Miss Analysis

Sitting at 10-1, Ole Miss is in the driver’s seat for hosting a CFP game in Oxford. However, a loss could send the Rebels spiraling out of the CFP entirely as their résumé is not unassailable. Ole Miss went 2-1 versus ranked teams, with their win over then-No.4 LSU not looking as impressive now.

Division 2 transfer Trinidad Chambliss has been a breakout star in college football in 2025. He has accounted for 20 total touchdowns, throwing just three interceptions. He will likely get some down-ballot Heisman votes, a shocker after taking over for the incumbent Austin Simmons.

However, the straw that stirs the drink for the Rebels is Kewan Lacy. Lacy leads the nation with 19 rushing touchdowns. He has averaged north of 100 yards per game, and he has been dialed in with 391 yards and four rushing touchdowns in the last two SEC games.

Priority #1 for Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl needs to be to slow down Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy pic.twitter.com/FZfnHfTlZY

— Max Chadwick (@CFBMaxChadwick) November 26, 2025

Ole Miss has a wildly even passing attack. Five different Rebels average 40.0 receiving yards per game. Receiver Harrison Wallace leads the team with 42 receptions and 647 yards. Tight end Dae’Quan Wright has a team-leading four receiving touchdowns.

Defensively, the name to know is Princewill Umanmielen. He has 9.0 tackles for a loss and 5.5 sacks on the season. He will look to join his brother (and former teammate, Princely) in the NFL next season.

Mississippi State Analysis

After a disastrous 2-10 campaign last year, Mississippi State has fought its way to the fringe of bowl consideration. The Bulldogs started 4-0 out of conference, winning a stunner over then-No.12 Arizona State. In SEC play, Mississippi State has three one-score losses, but they have been ripped to shreds since picking up their lone win over Arkansas.

Previously at Baylor, Blake Shapen has had a solid season starting for the Bulldogs. He has 15 passing touchdowns with a reasonable eight interceptions. He averages over 220 passing yards per game and has completed 64.4% of his passes.

BLAKE SHAPEN TO BRENEN THOMPSON!!!!!!!!!! IT’S A MIRACLE IN MISSISSIPPI!!!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/MEBGxGnWak

— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) September 7, 2025

Mississippi State has a dynamic rushing duo of Fluff Bothwell and Davon Booth. Booth has 22 extra rushes, one more rushing touchdown, and solid receiving production. Bothwell has been more efficient in his rush attempts, averaging 5.0 yards per carry and scoring six times.

Similarly, the Bulldogs have an electric receiving duo. Brenen Thompson leads the squad with 868 yards and six touchdowns. Anthony Evans leads the conference with 63 catches, fulfilling more of a possession role in the passing attack.

Mississippi State does not have the 85 Bears defensively, but they have a pair of conference leaders. Nic Mitchell leads the SEC with 54 assisted tackles, and Kelley Jones has a conference-best 11 pass deflections. Also watch for safety Brylan Lanier, who has three interceptions.

Egg Bowl Pick

• Under 63.5

Here is why I am backing Under 63.5 in this major rivalry game:

• Ole Miss does have a high-flying offense (37.2 points per game), but they have an underrated defense, allowing 20.2 points per game, a top-30 mark in college football.
• No Egg Bowl since 2016 has seen enough points to cash this over. The last three Egg Bowls have not even reach 50 points, let alone 64.
• Given Ole Miss’ win-and-in situation for CFP purposes, I expect Ole Miss to do anything to escape the game, perhaps being conservative with the lead to preserve it as much as possible.

Recent Egg Bowl History

Through 121 Egg Bowls, Ole Miss holds a 66-46-6* edge, winning four of the last five matchups after Mississippi State won the 2010s. Ole Miss has a 25-15-3 in Starkville, quite similar to its 23-13-3 home record versus its top rival.

Last season, No.15 Ole Miss answered an early deficit to win the Egg Bowl 26-14. Future Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart threw for 143 yards and a touchdown, adding 77 rushing yards for the Rebels. On the Mississippi State side, future LSU transfer Michael Van Buren threw for 280 yards, tacked on two total touchdowns, and threw two picks.

*Ole Miss has vacated two wins: 2012 and 2014. Mississippi State vacated its 2018 win. Only 118 of 121 Egg Bowls “count” as wins.