Missouri vs Notre Dame Picks, Predictions, Odds & Line Movement

• Missouri’s perfect 8-0 record faces its toughest test against Notre Dame, which is a flawless 4-0 at home
• Reverse line movement on the spread indicates sharp money on the Irish at home on Tuesday night (Dec. 2nd)
• See the latest Missouri vs Notre Dame odds and betting splits, plus picks, predictions, and player props

On Tuesday, the Missouri Tigers (8-0, 1-0 away, 4-4 ATS, 3-5 O/U) put their perfect record on the line in the ACC/SEC Challenge when they visit the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-3, 4-0 home, 4-4 ATS, 3-5 O/U) at Purcell Pavilion at 9:00 pm ET on ESPNU.

This marks the first time the Tigers have played since the launch of Missouri betting apps and, as you’ll read below, there has been an influx of money on the Tigers, likely from sympathetic Mizzou fans. But sharper wagers appear to be on the Irish, creating a prime opportunity to fade the public.

I have set out the latest Mizzou vs Notre Dame odds and betting splits, dissected the line movement, and provided my best Missouri vs Notre Dame picks.

Go to: ODDS || BETTING SPLITS || PLAYER PROPS || PICKS

Missouri Tigers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Odds

The Missouri/Notre Dame odds reflect a rare instance of both teams being in plus-money to win at various sportsbooks. The best Missouri moneyline is currently +115 at bet365; the best Notre Dame moneyline is +105 at theScore Bet and Caesars Sportsbook.

Against the spread, the best Notre Dame option is +1.5 (-115) at theScore Bet. The best Mizzou ATS price is +2.5 (-110) at bet365.

The game total ranges from 148.5 to 149.5. Over bettors should head to BetMGM where they can get over 148.5 at -105. Under bettors should take Un 149.5 (-110) at bet365.

The most compelling aspect of these odds lies in the dramatic line movement. Notre Dame opened as a +105 moneyline underdog before being bet down to as short as -140 at certain books. This reverse line movement, particularly when the public heavily backs the other side, typically indicates sharp action recognizing value.

Missouri vs Notre Dame Public-Betting Splits

Tuesday’s college basketball public betting percentages show the vast majority of money, both ATS and moneyline, on Missouri. The Tigers are getting 77% of ATS handle in 80% of bets, and 55% of moneyline handle on 64% of bets.

With the line nonetheless moving in favor of the Irish, bettors have every reason to believe that sharp money is on the Irish tonight. This type of reverse line movement is one of the surest signs of sharp action.

MIZZ vs ND Player Props

The player-prop options for Notre Dame vs Missouri are fairly sparse. Only five players are listed, with Notre Dame’s Markus Burton () priced with a game-high point total of 20.5. Mark Mitchell () is the high man on the Mizzou side at just 14.5.

None of the prominent rebounders on either side are listed in the prop markets.

Missouri vs Notre Dame Picks & Predictions

MONEYLINE PICK: Notre Dame (+105) via theScore Bet Missouri Promo

Missouri’s offensive efficiency metrics look impressive on paper, but context matters. The Tigers have feasted on competition with an average RPI of 225 and an average KenPom rating of 277. This is their first encounter with a top-100 opponent, and just their second of the season in a hostile environment.

Notre Dame’s 4-0 home record isn’t just about wins – they’ve dominated at Purcell Pavilion, averaging 81.3 points per game while holding opponents to 65.5 points.

The Irish possess the defensive experience to neutralize Missouri’s attack. While the Tigers shoot 55.5% from the field, that number comes against significantly inferior competition. Notre Dame’s defensive rating against a much tougher schedule suggests they can force Missouri into uncomfortable possessions. Home teams coming off losses are 18-7 ATS (72%) when favored by three points or fewer this season, providing additional support for backing the Irish.

OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 146.0 (-105) at BetRivers

Both offenses possess the firepower to eclipse this total, despite the public’s overwhelming lean toward the under. Missouri enters averaging 92.9 points per game with five players in double figures, while Notre Dame has shown explosive capability at home, posting 102 points against Detroit Mercy and 89 versus LIU.

The key factor supporting the over lies in pace and efficiency. Missouri’s assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.23 indicates ball movement that creates quality shots, while Burton’s 20.1 scoring average and Braeden Shrewsberry’s 46.7% three-point shooting provide Notre Dame with multiple offensive weapons. Teams averaging 90+ points per game are 23-11 to the over (68%) when facing opponents allowing fewer than 70 points per game this season.

Statistical Breakdown: Missouri vs Notre Dame

Contextualizing the Numbers

The tale of this matchup becomes clear when examining each team’s statistical profile through the lens of strength of schedule, revealing why Notre Dame’s modest numbers may be more predictive than Missouri’s gaudy offensive metrics

Missouri’s offensive statistics appear dominant, but the massive disparity in strength of schedule (0.3618 vs 0.5463) renders direct comparison misleading. The Tigers’ 55.5% field goal percentage ranks eighth nationally, yet it’s been achieved against competition averaging an RPI of 225. Their three-point efficiency (39.0%) looks elite until considering they’ve faced zero top-100 defensive units.

Notre Dame’s more modest offensive numbers reflect battles against legitimate competition. Their 46.3% field goal percentage, while unspectacular, has been earned against a schedule nearly twice as difficult as Missouri’s. The Irish commit significantly fewer turnovers (10.8 vs 13.6), indicating better ball security that becomes crucial in tight games.

The rebounding battle presents fascinating dynamics. While Missouri holds a team advantage (38.6 vs 33.6), Notre Dame counters with Carson Towt’s individual dominance. His 10.38 rebounds per game and 29 offensive boards create additional possessions that directly support our prop selection and Notre Dame’s ability to control tempo.

Burton’s 20.1 scoring average and 32.28% usage rate demonstrate Notre Dame’s offensive focal point, while his ability to score at all three levels provides the versatility to attack Missouri’s untested defense. The combination of Towt’s interior presence and Burton’s perimeter creativity gives the Irish multiple avenues to exploit Missouri’s inexperience against quality opposition.