Cowboys vs Lions Picks & Predictions: Expert Spread Analysis for Week 14 TNF

• The Lions host the Cowboys in a massive game in the NFC playoff race
• Dallas has won three straight, but Detroit is a field-goal favorite on TNF in Week 14
• See the Cowboys vs Lions expert picks and predictions, plus the latest odds, line movement, and betting splits

A pivotal NFC showdown with significant playoff ramifications is cued up for Thursday Night Football in Week 14 as the Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1, 2-4 away, 7-5 ATS, 8-4 O/U) travel to face the Detroit Lions (7-5, 4-2 home, 6-6 ATS, 7-5 O/U) at Ford Field. Kickoff is set for 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime Video.

Detroit and Dallas are currently the NFC’s #8 and #9 seeds, respectively, in the latest NFL playoff bracket and would be on the outside looking in if the postseason started today. The Cowboys ride momentum from a dominant Thanksgiving performance, while the Lions seek to rebound at Ford Field following a disappointing 31-24 loss to Green Bay that exposed defensive vulnerabilities.

The primary narrative centers on Detroit’s banged-up receiving corps, with star wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown’s ankle injury casting uncertainty over the Lions’ aerial attack. St. Brown is officially questionable for Thursday Night Football. Below, I will set out the latest TNF odds, my Cowboys vs Lions expert picks, and the current betting splits.

Jump to: DAL vs DET ODDS || DAL vs DET PICKS || DAL vs DET BETTING SPLITS

DAL Cowboys vs DET Lions Updated Odds

Detroit opened as three-point home favorite and the line has stayed put over the last four days. Every book has the line at DET -3.0 with only slight fluctuations in price. On the moneyline, the best Detroit price is -164 at FanDuel; the best Dallas price is +140 at bet365.

The total has also stayed at 54.5, though the odds on the under (which opened at -120) have come down as far as -110 at bet365.

Removing the vig from the moneyline odds, Detroit carries a 59.2% implied win probability, compared to 40.8% for Dallas.

Odds commentary as of 1:25 am ET, Dec. 4th. The lines in the interactive table, above, will update automatically with the best-available price for each market if/when the NFL odds move.

Cowboys vs Lions Expert Picks & Predictions for TNF

This Thursday Night Football matchup features two explosive NFC offenses, but key injuries and underlying statistical trends suggest a tighter contest than the betting market anticipates. While Detroit enters as rightful home favorites, Dallas possesses the offensive weaponry and situational advantages to exploit specific matchups and deliver value as road underdogs.

My picks target the underdog and a conservative total, based largely on Detroit’s depleted pass-catching depth and Dallas’s recent defensive improvements.

Against-the-Spread Pick: Dallas Cowboys +3 (-105) at BetMGM

The Lions’ high-octane offense – averaging 28.8 points per game – may be without two of its their top receiving threats. The potential absence of both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Kalif Raymond fundamentally alters Detroit’s offensive ceiling, forcing increased reliance on their ground game and secondary targets against a Dallas defense that has shown marked improvement in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys arrive with superior offensive efficiency metrics which have translated to close games and favorable ATS results this season.

Cowboys vs Lions: Offensive Efficiency Breakdown

Dallas’s superior third-down conversion rate (44.1% vs 38.7%) provides crucial advantages in clock management and drive sustainability. Despite their concerning -6 turnover differential, the 3-point spread offers adequate cushion in what projects as a possession-by-possession battle. The Cowboys’ 393.1 yards per game output demonstrates their ability to move the ball consistently against quality opposition.

The Lions are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven as home favorites of 3+ points.

Total Points Pick: Under 54.5 (-110) at bet365

This total of 54.5 points ranks is the week’s highest, portending an offensive explosion. However, Detroit’s WR injuries create a significant obstacle; Detroit put up just 21 last week against Green Bay. St. Brown’s absence alone would remove the engine of Detroit’s passing attack, while Raymond’s potential unavailability further limits their downfield options.

Without two of their primary aerial weapons, the Lions will likely emphasize ball control through their rushing attack, leading to longer drives that consume clock and reduce overall possessions. This strategic shift naturally favors lower-scoring outcomes.

Unders have cashed in five of the Cowboys’ last seven games when the total exceeds 52 points.

Best Player Prop: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 113.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) at Underdog

With Detroit’s receiving corps compromised, responsibilities shift heavily toward Gibbs as both a primary rushing option and Jared Goff’s preferred safety valve in the passing game. His dual-threat capabilities make him a matchup nightmare for Dallas linebackers, while his projected usage spike creates excellent value at this number (which is as high as 121.5 at DraftKings).

Gibbs possesses explosive breakaway speed that can generate chunk yardage on any touch, and the volume increase necessitated by injuries positions him for a heavy workload. Expect a ton of rushing attempts combined with increased targets in quick-hitting pass concepts.

Cowboys vs Lions Public-Betting Splits

The NFL public betting data show strong conviction on this NFC clash, with clear preferences emerging across all major markets. However, notable disparities between money percentages and underlying game dynamics create intriguing contrarian opportunities.

Current money distribution based on total handle percentages:

• Spread: 88% of money backs Dallas +3
• Moneyline: 61% of money supports the Cowboys to win outright
• Total Points: 52% of money is on Over 54.5

The lopsided 88% money percentage on Dallas +3 suggests sharp recognition of value in the underdog to cover.

Cowboys vs Lions Statistical Comparison

While both units rank among the league’s most productive, underlying statistics reveal critical advantages that could determine Thursday’s outcome.

Dallas’s Aerial Superiority vs Detroit’s Ball Security: The Cowboys’ 271.3 passing yards per game, led by Dak Prescott (whose passing yards prop sits at 271.5), creates significant stress for Detroit’s secondary. However, Dallas’s league-worst -6 turnover differential presents opportunities for a disciplined Lions defense that has forced turnovers at an elite rate (+5 differential).

Detroit’s Ground Control vs Dallas’s Pass Rush: The Lions’ balanced attack features a 138.1-yard rushing average, with Jahmyr Gibbs as a key contributor, that could neutralize Dallas’s 28-sack pass rush. Gibbs’s Rushing + Receiving Yards prop of 119.5 becomes particularly attractive given his expanded role with receiver injuries. Meanwhile, Jared Goff’s efficiency-focused approach (65.2% red-zone touchdown rate) contrasts sharply with Dallas’s more explosive but turnover-prone offensive philosophy.

The Cowboys’ superior third-down conversion rate (44.1%) provides crucial advantages in sustaining drives, while Detroit’s disciplined approach (just 6.2 penalties per game) offers better field position management in what projects as a tight contest.

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