Tulane vs North Texas Prediction, Picks & Spread for AAC Title Game

• #24 North Texas is a 2.5-point favorite over #20 North Texas in the AAC Title Game
• The winner will qualify for the College Football Playoff
• See my Tulane vs North Texas prediction and picks, plus the spread for the AAC Title Game

Friday marks the start of college football’s championship weekend, with a high-stakes showdown between #24 North Texas (11-1) and #20 Tulane (10-2) on deck in the AAC Title Game.

Oddsmakers expect a tightly contested shootout per the college football odds, with the Mean Green laying 2.5 points on the road, with a 67.5-point total.

Kickoff is set for 8 pm ET from Yulman Stadium in New Orleans, LA, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Here are my Tulane vs North Texas prediction and picks, plus the latest spread for the AAC Title Game.

Tulane vs North Texas Prediction and Picks

The winner of this matchup will officially qualify for the final 12 in the CFP odds. It’s hard to find anyone backing the Green Wave in this spot, which makes me a little nervous for my North Texas affection. I’m going to throw caution in the wind, however, as I just don’t see a scenario where Tulane can slow down this offensive juggernaut.

Let’s start with the Mean Green’s rushing attack. North Texas enters play averaging nearly 200 yards per game on the ground, led by their incredible lead back, Caleb Hawkins. The freshman has racked up over 1,200 rushing yards so far this season, with 23 touchdowns and a 6.3 yards per carry average.

In his last four games alone, he’s scored 16 rushing touchdowns. No, that is not a typo. Rush defense is the strength of the Green Wave’s defense, but Hawkins is playing at the level of a Heisman Trophy odds contender, and I don’t anticipate him slowing down.

Let’s say, for argument’s sake, Tulane is able to contain Hawkins. Well, now all the Green Wave have to worry about is one of the best passing offenses in the country.

Freshman walk-on QB Drew Mestemaker leads the nation in passing yards with 3,835, and ranks third in touchdowns. Over his last six games, he boasts a 16-to-1 TD-to-INT rate, leading the Mean Green to 50+ points in five of those contests.

North Texas Offensive Stats

North Texas led the country this season in points per game, total offense and yards per play. They don’t give up sacks and rarely turn the ball over, while they’re ultra-efficient on third down (20th) and in the red zone (2nd).

The reason the Mean Green aren’t favored by more is their defense. North Texas ranks outside the top-70 in points allowed, and have been bludgeoned on the ground. They sit 118th in yards allowed per carry and 133rd in rushing yards per game. They’re much better in pass defense, ranking 12th in passing yards allowed, and do an admirable job of forcing picks (13th) and generating sacks (58).

Tulane, on the other hand, features a capable rushing unit, but it’s far from elite. QB Jake Retzlaff is the team’s leading rusher, with just 561 rushing yards. For context, Hawkins has more rushing production in his last four games.

The Green Wave are much more efficient throwing the ball, which plays right into the strength of the North Texas defense. The big concern for the Mean Green is that Tulane will be one of the better offenses they’ve faced so far. The top offense they’ve matched up with to date is South Florida, and the Bulls hung 63 points against them.

That was all the way back at the start of October, however, and the North Texas defense has improved greatly since. They surrendered 25 points or less in each of their final six outings, and 20 points or less three times.

North Texas hasn’t won a Bowl Game since 2013 or a conference championship since 2004. That changes on Friday, led by its prolific offensive attack.

Tulane vs North Texas Spread

No matter where you look to bet the Tulane vs North Texas spread, you’ll see the Mean Green favored by 2.5 points. Bet365 is currently offering the best price if you want to lay the points, with Ceasars showing the most favorable odds to back Tulane ATS.

Total-wise, most commercial books are showing 67.5, except for Bet365. They’re currently half a point lower than the market, making them the place to bet if you like the over.

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Odds as of Dec. 4 at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on the college football conference championships.

Per the college football public betting trends, betting the Mean Green against the spread has been an extremely profitable wager this season. North Texas is 10-2 ATS, covering in each of their last six games by an average of 13.5 points per game.