Golden Knights vs Flyers Prediction, Expert Picks, Player Props & Starting Goalies (Dec. 11)

• Carter Hart returns to Philadelphia but won’t start as Vegas visits the Flyers on Thursday night
• The Flyers have won 7 of their last 10 games and sit in a wild-card playoff spot
• See my Golden Knights vs Flyers prediction below, plus expert picks, player props and starting goalies for December 11th

The Golden Knights travel to Philadelphia on Thursday night in what will be an emotional homecoming for Carter Hart, though he won’t be starting against his former team. Vegas enters with a five-game point streak (4-0-1) but is coming off a 5-4 shootout loss to the Islanders. Philadelphia (winning 7 of their last 10) just beat San Jose 4-1 and currently sits in a wild-card spot.

Puck drop is set for 7:00 PM ET at Wells Fargo Center, with ESPN broadcasting the action nationally. The Golden Knights are -150 road favorites despite the Flyers’ recent surge at home.

Here’s my Golden Knights vs Flyers prediction for tonight’s NHL matchup, along with expert picks, player props and starting goalie breakdown.

Golden Knights vs Flyers Prediction

• Score Prediction: Flyers 3, Golden Knights 2

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My Golden Knights vs Flyers prediction backs Philadelphia to pull off the upset at home. The Flyers have won 7 of their last 10 games and are 4-1 in their last five as underdogs. Vegas is 1-4 in their last five games against teams with winning records, which is a massive red flag.

Philadelphia’s riding a hot streak with a 26-16 goal differential over their last 10 games. They’re shooting 12.21% at 5-on-5 and converting 15.15% of their high-danger chances. Their goaltending’s been elite, with a 92.12% save percentage during this stretch. That 1.043 PDO is elevated, but when you’re this hot, you ride it.

Vegas has better underlying numbers – they’re dominating possession at 52.06% Corsi and generating quality chances. But they’re only shooting 8.33% at 5-on-5, which is brutal. They had 55.43% shot share in their last 10, but can’t finish. Their PDO sits at 0.985, showing they’ve been unlucky, but that doesn’t help tonight.

Matchup Breakdown

Vegas has the offensive edge (3.07 goals per game vs 2.86) and generates way more shots (29.9 vs 25.39). Their power play is elite at 23.9%, and they’re winning 53.4% of faceoffs compared to Philadelphia’s 48.5%.

But Philadelphia’s got the defensive advantage. They allow fewer goals per game (2.68 vs 2.69), have better goaltending (.893 save percentage vs .886), and their penalty kill is stronger (81.8% vs 80.8%). The Flyers’ physicality (21.5 hits per game vs 19.24) could throw Vegas off its game.

Travis Konecny just hit 500 career points in Tuesday’s win over San Jose. He had a goal and an assist in that 4-1 victory. Christian Dvorak also contributed a goal and an assist. The Flyers are playing with confidence after bouncing back from a tough 3-2 loss to Colorado on Sunday.

Golden Knights vs Flyers Expert Picks

Based on my prediction, my expert pick is the Flyers moneyline at +130 on Caesars. Philadelphia’s 7-3 record in their last 10 and 4-1 mark as underdogs in their last five make this a strong value play. Vegas being 1-4 against winning teams is the clincher – the Flyers qualify as exactly that type of opponent.

The public is hammering Vegas with 91.70% of the money on the Golden Knights moneyline. That massive one-sided action creates value on the contrarian Flyers side. When 9 out of 10 dollars are on one team, there’s usually an opportunity on the other side.

Golden Knights vs Flyers Player Props

Best Player Props

Travis Konecny Over 1.5 Shots (-182)

I’m taking Travis Konecny over 1.5 shots at -182. He’s exceeded this line in 11 of his last 12 home games, averaging 2.83 shots per contest during that stretch. That’s a 91.7% hit rate at home, which justifies the heavy juice.

Konecny just reached 500 career points and is playing with confidence. He had an empty-net goal and an assist in Tuesday’s win. The Flyers’ top-line right winger is getting volume at home, and Vegas allows 25 shots per game, giving him room to operate.

Sean Couturier Under 1.5 Shots (-139)

I’m adding a bet on Sean Couturier going under 1.5 shots at -139. He’s missed hitting this prop in his last five home games after wins, averaging just 0.6 shots in those situations. It’s a consistent pattern in a pretty specific spot. Since Philadelphia just won on Tuesday, that triggers this trend.

Couturier is a two-way center who prioritizes defensive responsibilities over shot generation, making the -139 price tag very reasonable value here.

Golden Knights vs Flyers Starting Goalies

Akira Schmid gets the start for Vegas after Carter Hart started Tuesday’s shootout loss to the Islanders. Schmid is 10-2-4 with a 2.35 GAA and .903 save percentage with two shutouts this season.

Dan Vladar is confirmed for Philadelphia with an 11-5-1 record, 2.50 GAA, and .908 save percentage. Vladar bounced back nicely in Tuesday’s 4-1 win over San Jose, saving 17 of 18 shots (.944 SV%) after allowing five goals in his previous start against Pittsburgh.

Golden Knights vs Flyers Odds

The Flyers are listed as +130 home underdogs against the Golden Knights. Vegas brings a 4-0-1 record over their last five games into Wells Fargo Center, earning points in all five contests despite the recent struggles finishing games.

The plus money on Philadelphia at +130 offers solid value given their recent home performance and Vegas’s issues against quality opponents. The NHL public betting splits show 91.70% on Vegas, 62.23% on Philadelphia +1.5 on the puck line, and 89.52% on the over.

Make sure you check out our best NHL betting apps before placing a wager on tonight’s NHL game.