Final Boise State vs Washington Prediction, Opt Outs & Closing LA Bowl Odds

• Washington is a 10-point favorite over Boise State in the LA Bowl
• The Broncos haven’t beat a true Power Conference opponent since 2019
• See my final Boise State vs Washington prediction below, plus opt-outs and the closing LA Bowl odds

It’s officially Bowl season. The LA Bowl will be the first FBS Bowl Game to kick off this year, as Boise State (9-4) takes on Washington (8-4) tonight. Online sportsbooks are expecting a convincing victory for the Huskies per the latest college football odds, and sharp money has been pounding Washington all week.

The action is set for 8pm ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my final Boise State vs Washington prediction, plus opt-outs and the closing LA Bowl odds.

Final Boise State vs Washington Prediction

I’m following the line move in this matchup, backing the Huskies -10 in my Boise State vs Washington prediction. Both of these teams have been among the final 12 standing in the CFP odds over the past few years, but it’s been a while since the Broncos beat a legit team.

You have to go all the way back to 2019 for the last time Boise State beat an at the time Power Conference opponent. They got the best of Florida State that year, but since then, they’ve been winless against the big boys.

This year, they faced two teams that were ranked throughout the season and the results were not pretty. They lost by 27 and 21 points to South Florida and Notre Dame, mustering just 7 points in both outings. Those weren’t the only games they struggled in either. They also lost to Fresno State and San Diego State, two of the three other highest-ranked programs they faced, also scoring only 7 points in each matchup.

Points will be tough to come by against this Washington team for two reasons. One is the absence of arguably their most talented offensive player, which we’ll discuss below, and two is the strength of the Huskies’ defense. Boise State’s offensive success is predicated on running the ball, and Washington enters play with a top-20 run defense by almost every metric.

Washington Huskies Rush Defense

On the other side of the ball, Huskies QB Desmond Williams will be the most talented player on the field. Williams can beat you with his arm and his legs, throwing for 21 TD and rushing for another 8 scores this year.

The sophomore pivot has completed over 70% of his passes in both collegiate seasons, and the Huskies’ offense is at its best when he’s spamming the middle of the field with mid-range throws. Washington is top-25 in both third down conversion rate and red zone scoring percentage, and are 8-1 this season when Williams completes at least 63% of his passes.

When the Huskies keep the ball on the ground, there’s plenty of reason to believe they’ll find success as well. Boise State ranks bottom-five in the FBS in explosive runs and broken tackles allowed.

Boise State vs Washington Opt Outs

Another reason to be bullish on Washington is the fact that none of its players are opting out of this game. The Broncos, on the other hand, can’t make that claim.

Star left tackle and future NFL’er Kage Casey is opting out to focus on the Draft. Casey was instrumental in former Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty’s historic 2024 campaign and is a top-30 ranked tackle heading into Draft season.

His absence lowers the ceiling for the Broncos’ run game and for QB Maddux Madsen’s passing prospects. Madsen is likely to be under heavier pressure without his best lineman, and he currently boasts a dismal 37.5% completion percentage, with a 5-to-1 turnover-worthy play to big-time throw rate when the heat is on.

Boise State reserve linebacker Chase Martin and offensive tackle Hall Schmidt are also opting out, announcing earlier in the week that they’re entering the transfer portal next month.

Boise State vs Washington Closing LA Bowl Odds

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Odds as of Dec. 13 at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on College Football Bowl Games.

The best place to bet Washington -10 is either at Bet365 or DraftKings. Both books are half a point lower than market, and offering the spread at -110 odds. The Huskies opened as 8.5 point favorites, but the spread has been steadily climbing all week.

Total-wise, the number varies between 52.5 and 53, which is up from its 51.5 point over/under.

Per the college football public betting trends, even at a -10 spread the wagering action favors the Huskies. They’re drawing 51% of the tickets and 62% of the handle, suggesting the bigger money bettors (typically pros) are backing Washington. The Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when favored by 9+ points, and all but one of their eight wins this season have been by 17+ points.