Early NFL Props to Target for Week 17 – James Cook, Ja’Marr Chase & More

• Week 17 brings crucial playoff positioning battles with two weeks left in the regular season
• James Cook, Ja’Marr Chase, and Baker Mayfield headline my top NFL player props for Week 17
• Check out my early Week 17 NFL player prop picks with matchup breakdowns

Week 17 is here, and we’ve got two more full slates of NFL action before the regular season wraps up. Playoff positioning is on the line across the league, and I’ve found three spots where the matchups line up perfectly for NFL player props.

We went 1-2 last week. Goff smashed his prop with 334 yards, but St. Brown fell short and Achane landed half a yard under his projected line. Not ideal, but that’s how it goes sometimes. Let’s get back on track.

NFL Week 17 Player Props to Target

Odds as of December 24th. New customers can claim the BetMGM promo code and get a bonus to bet on NFL betting apps this week.

NFL Player Prop Pick: James Cook Rushing Yards

Cook leads the NFL in rushing yards with 1,532 on the season. Through 15 games, Buffalo’s workhorse back is averaging 102.1 yards per game on 5.3 yards per carry. The volume is there, the efficiency is there, and now he gets a perfect matchup.

The Eagles rank third-worst in the NFL against the run, allowing 144.3 rushing yards per game. They’ve tightened up slightly over their last five games (126.8 YPG), but they’re still getting gashed. Philadelphia has given up 100-plus rushing yards in eight of 15 games this season, including some ugly performances.

Cook’s recent numbers:

The 24-year-old has hit 100-plus yards in four of his last five games and nine times total this season. Buffalo leads the entire league in rushing yards per game at 158.9, and they’re going to lean on Cook in this one. The Bills trust him completely, giving him 21.3 touches per game and 53.5% of snaps with a touch.

Philadelphia’s defense has been exploitable all year. They allowed 281 yards to Chicago, 172 to the Giants, 169 to the Chargers, and 160 to the Rams. Jalen Carter’s status matters, but even when healthy, Philly has struggled to stop quality rushing attacks.

Cook’s efficiency is elite too. His 89.2% positive run rate means he’s consistently gaining yardage on first contact. At 5.3 yards per carry, the Georgia product doesn’t need 25 carries to clear 100 yards. If he gets his usual 18-20 touches against this defense, the over should cash comfortably.

• Early Bet: James Cook over 99.5 rushing yards

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NFL Player Prop Pick: Ja’Marr Chase Receiving Yards

Chase is having another elite season. Through 14 games, Cincinnati’s star receiver has 110 catches for 1,256 yards and five touchdowns. That’s 89.7 yards per game, and he’s been averaging 7.9 receptions per game. The volume is always there with Burrow healthy.

Since Burrow came back healthy, Chase has been on fire. Over the last four games, the LSU product has 31 catches on 49 targets for 395 yards. That’s 98.8 yards per game, well above this 90.5-yard line. He’s hit 100-plus yards in three of those four games.

The Cardinals secondary is decimated. They ruled out safety Jalen Thompson and cornerback Max Melton for Week 16. Cornerback Garrett Williams was shut down for the season after a knee injury. That’s three major defensive backs gone. Arizona is rolling with rookie cornerbacks Will Johnson and Denzel Burke, plus an inexperienced safety in Dadrion Taylor-Demerson who has only two career starts.

Arizona’s pass defense has been getting torched. They’ve allowed at least 40 points in four of their last seven games. First-round pick Walter Nolen III and edge rusher Josh Sweat both left Week 16 with injuries too. Burrow and Chase should have a field day.

Chase’s recent game log with Burrow:

The 24-year-old commands 31% of team targets and 35.3% of team air yards. Burrow looks for him first on almost every critical down. Arizona is 3-12 and offers no resistance, which should lead to a pass-heavy game script for Cincinnati.

Chase has hit 100-plus receiving yards in seven of 14 games this season. Against a secondary missing multiple starters and playing with rookies, this line of 90.5 yards is right where it needs to be for the over to hit.

• Early Bet: Ja’Marr Chase over 90.5 receiving yards

NFL Player Prop Pick: Baker Mayfield Passing Yards

Mayfield is averaging 209.6 yards per game this season, so this 227.5-yard line is right around his baseline. Through 15 games, the veteran QB has thrown for 3,144 yards with a 61.6% completion rate. Nothing spectacular, but he’s been consistent when his weapons are healthy.

The Dolphins defense ranks middle-of-the-pack against the pass with an 85.1 overall QB rating allowed. Their secondary has been exploitable, particularly through the cornerback group (80.7 rating against) and safeties (83.3). Jack Jones at corner has allowed a 95.4 QB rating against with 237 yards surrendered.

The key here is receiver health. Mayfield just got Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan back from IR, giving him his full complement of weapons for the first time all season. Evans immediately went off for 132 yards in that Thursday night game against the Chargers. With Evans, Chris Godwin, and Emeka Egbuka all healthy, this is the best receiving corps Tampa has had available in weeks.

Game script should favor the pass too. Tampa needs this win to clinch the NFC South. Miami is sitting at 6-9 but playing with pride and behind a young, new starting quarterback. This should be competitive, which means Mayfield will need to throw.

Mayfield has hit 277 yards against Atlanta and 273 against New England in recent weeks when his weapons were available. The 145-yard dud last week against Carolina was an outlier driven by a run-heavy gameplan. Tampa won’t be able to run the ball down Miami’s throat the same way.

Miami allows 242.8 passing yards per game over their last five games. Tampa will likely throw 30-plus times, and Mayfield has shown he can deliver in those high-volume passing games. The over at 227.5 yards is the play.

• Early Bet: Baker Mayfield over 227.5 passing yards

Brady’s Early NFL Props Record: 22-25

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