Cowboys vs Commanders Picks, Predictions, Betting Splits & Lines (Dec 25)

• Only pride is on the line when the Dallas Cowboys visit the Washington Commanders on Xmas
• The Cowboys enter Week 17 as sizable favorites, in part because of the Commanders long injury list
• See the Cowboys vs Commanders picks, predictions, betting lines, and splits

The Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1, 2-5 away, 7-8 ATS, 10-4-1 O/U) travel to face the Washington Commanders (4-11, 2-5 home, 5-10 ATS, 8-6-1 O/U) on Christmas Day. While both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, the Cowboys enter as significant road favorites against a Commanders squad devastated by injuries to key personnel.

Dallas QB1 Dak Prescott has vowed to play out the season with purpose despite the team’s disappointing campaign, while Washington faces the prospect of a third-string QB with Jayden Daniels out and Marcus Mariota questionable due to a hand injury.

The central narrative revolves around Dallas’s high-powered offensive attack meeting a depleted Washington defense that surrendered 207 rushing yards in its last outing against Philadelphia. With defensive tackle Daron Payne missing practice and linebacker Nick Bellore in concussion protocol, the Commanders’ defensive front remains vulnerable.

Dallas/Washington kicks of a Xmas tripleheader at 1:00 pm ET at Northwest Stadium in Landover. Below, find my Cowboys vs Commanders picks and predictions, plus the latest odds, and betting splits.

Jump to: PICKS || SPLITS || ODDS || INJURY REPORTS

Cowboys vs Commanders Expert Picks & Predictions

DAL vs WSH ATS Pick: Cowboys -7.0 (-105) at FanDuel

If the Commanders lose out, there’s a non-zero chance they’ll wind up with a top-five pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. They would have the seventh pick if the draft took place today, but four teams are just a game behind them. Starting pivot Jayden Daniels has already been shut down for the season and now QB2 Marcus Mariota is laboring under a hand injury that led to him missing practice on Tuesday.

In short, there are hints that the Commanders are packing it up and hoping to increase their draft stock in the final weeks of the season, rather than win a pair of mean-nothing games.

Starting left tackle Laremy Tunsil and starting DT Daron Payne are both listed as questionable, but I would personally be surprised if either suited up.

On the surface, Dallas appears more motivated to field a competitive lineup, and the Cowboy offense has been among the league’s elite all season, sitting seventh in O-DVOA and eighth on offense at PFF. Washington’s defense is 29th out of 32 teams in both categories.

The spread represents solid value despite the heavy line movement from the opening -5.5. Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last five as road favorites of 6+ points, while Washington is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as home underdogs of 3+ points.

DAL vs WSH Offensive Comparison

DAL vs WSH Game-Total Pick: Over 50.5 Points (-106) at FanDuel

Despite Washington’s offensive limitations, the total presents value based on Dallas’s scoring capacity and Washington’s defensive vulnerabilities. The Cowboys have exceeded 30 points in four of their last six games, while Washington’s defense ranks 28th in points allowed per drive.

Overs are 7-3 in Cowboys games with totals above 48 this season, and they have the single-best over record in the entire NFL. Washington games have exceeded 47 points in five of their last seven contests despite offensive struggles.

Top Player Prop to Bet: Javonte Williams Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM

Williams over 71.5 rushing yards represents the strongest value on the prop board. Washington’s run defense cratered against Philadelphia, and with Daron Payne’s status uncertain, the interior defensive line remains compromised. Williams’ rushing attempts prop sits at 15.5, creating a realistic path to exceeding the yardage total.

The game script heavily favors a ground-and-pound approach as Dallas builds a lead, particularly in the second half.

Public Betting Splits for Cowboys vs Commanders

Professional and recreational bettors have aligned on this NFC East rivalry, with the majority of handle flowing toward the visiting Cowboys across multiple betting markets.

Market Breakdown:

• Spread: 76% of money backing Cowboys -7
• Moneyline: 67% of handle on Dallas straight up
• Total Points: 62% of money on over 50.5

The public’s heavy investment in Dallas covering the touchdown spread aligns with my analysis, particularly given Washington’s compromised defensive front. The moderate lean toward the Cowboys moneyline suggests some bettors prefer the safer play despite reduced payout potential at -357.

The over consensus supports the anticipated game script where Dallas builds an early lead through its passing attack before controlling the clock with its ground game, potentially creating a higher-scoring first half.

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders Odds

The latest betting lines list Dallas as a touchdown favorite across the board with only subtle discrepancies in price ranging from -105 to -115.

On the moneyline, the best Dallas price is currently -315 at BetRivers, while the best Washington price is +280 at bet365 and BetMGM.

The total ranges from 50.5 to 51.0 with FanDuel offering the best under number and bet365 offering the best over number.

Odds and commentary as of 10:15 am ET, Dec. 24th. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best-available price for each market if the NFL odds move before kickoff. =

Week 17 Injury Report: Cowboys vs Commanders

Status based on practice participation as of December 23: DNP (Did Not Participate), Limited (Limited Participation)

Both squads enter this Christmas Day rivalry with significant injury concerns that could dramatically impact game flow and betting outcomes. Washington faces the more critical situation with their starting quarterback’s status uncertain, while Dallas monitors key defenders and skill position players.

Head-to-Head Statistical Breakdown: Cowboys vs Commanders

The statistical comparison reveals substantial advantages for Dallas across multiple offensive categories, while both defenses present exploitable weaknesses.