Bills vs Broncos Final Picks & Closing Odds (Jan 17)

• Buffalo is a 1.5-point underdog at Denver in Saturday’s AFC Divisional Round
• The Bills opened as favorites before sharp money flipped the line to Denver -1.5
• See my final Bills vs Broncos picks below, plus the closing odds for the 4:30 pm ET kickoff

The AFC Divisional Round kicks off Saturday afternoon with the Bills traveling to face the Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Online sportsbooks have Denver as a narrow home favorite in what should be a tight battle.

Buffalo opened as a small road favorite before the line completely flipped. The Bills went from -1.5 to +1.5 in the NFL odds over a two-day stretch, a classic sign of sharp money hammering Denver.

Normally, that type of reverse line movement would have me backing the Broncos. But this feels like Josh Allen’s year, and I’m riding with the best quarterback on the field.

Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 pm ET on CBS from Denver, CO. Here are my final Bills vs Broncos picks and the closing odds.

Bills vs Broncos Picks

• Bills Moneyline (+106 at FanDuel)
• Under 46.5 (-120 at BetRivers)

I get why the sharp money is on Denver. The Broncos are healthier, they’re at home with the altitude advantage, and Buffalo’s defense is banged up. The Bills played Sunday in Jacksonville and now face a short week traveling cross-country for a Saturday game.

Denver’s also got the defensive edge. The Broncos allow just 3.9 yards per carry while Buffalo is giving up 5.2 yards per rush – one of the worst marks in the league. Sean Payton had a bye week to scheme against a porous Bills run defense, and you know he’s planning to pound the rock with RJ Harvey.

All of that makes sense. But here’s the thing: Josh Allen is Superman, and with no Mahomes in these playoffs, the AFC is wide open for him to finally break through.

Last week against Jacksonville, Allen put the team on his back. He threw for 273 yards and a TD while rushing 11 times for 33 yards and two scores. The Jaguars were running all over Buffalo – averaging 6 yards per carry – but Allen willed his team to victory anyway.

That’s what elite quarterbacks do in January. Allen has scored at least one rushing touchdown in five of his last seven playoff games, and he trusts himself more than anyone when Buffalo is knocking on the door. This is his time, and I’m betting on him to deliver.

Bills Offense vs Broncos Defense

Yes, Buffalo’s dealing with injuries at receiver. Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers both tore ACLs last week, forcing the Bills to activate Curtis Samuel from the injury report. The receiving corps is thin, but Allen makes players better and finds ways to win.

The Bills are converting 100% of their red zone attempts (3-for-3) in the postseason and hitting 50% on third down (7-for-14). When you execute like that in big spots, you usually come out on top.

As for the under, I’m expecting a grind-it-out game. Denver will try to control the clock and keep the ball away from Allen, while Buffalo’s banged-up defense should force them into lower-scoring possessions. The total opened at 47 and has dropped to 45.5, with steady under pressure all week.

The Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs. The under is 7-2 in Buffalo’s last 9 games when the total is set at 45.5 or higher. Those trends point to a tight, defensive battle that Buffalo pulls out late.

I predict Allen and the Bills make that one extra play when they need it, just like they did last week against Jacksonville. Another close game, another Buffalo win.

Looking for more Bills vs Broncos coverage? Check out:

• Bills vs Broncos Injury Report
• Bills vs Broncos TD Scorer Picks
• Bills vs Broncos Same-Game Parlay

Why Denver Could Win

Let me be clear: the Broncos absolutely have a path to victory here. Denver’s defense is legit, ranking top-3 in both points and yards allowed. Patrick Surtain II is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, and he can lock down Buffalo’s depleted receiver group.

The altitude advantage at Mile High is real, especially on a short week. Buffalo played Sunday and now faces a cross-country trip with little time to adjust. Meanwhile, Denver had a bye week to rest and prepare.

Sean Payton also has a huge edge in this matchup. The Broncos can attack Buffalo’s 5.2 yards per carry allowed on the ground, keeping Allen on the sideline. If Harvey gets going early, Denver controls the clock and wins a low-scoring battle.

Bo Nix doesn’t need to be great, he just needs to avoid turnovers and let the defense do its job. Denver went 14-3 this season by limiting mistakes, and that formula could work again today.

Props to Target

If you’re looking for NFL props, Josh Allen over 37.5 rushing yards (-112 on DraftKings) is my favorite play. Allen averaged 4.1 yards per carry this season and needs just 8.5 attempts to hit this number.

He’s also scored at least one rushing touchdown in five of his last seven playoff games. Allen anytime TD (-123) is worth a look, especially considering how much Buffalo leans on him near the goal line.

On the Denver side, RJ Harvey over 53.5 rushing yards could hit if the Broncos control the game. Harvey’s averaged 32 yards per game, but since taking over as the lead back after JK Dobbins’ injury, he’s consistently gone over that mark. Bo Nix over 22.5 rushing yards (-114) is another solid option against Buffalo’s porous rush defense.

Bills vs Broncos Closing Odds

The line has settled at Denver -1.5 after opening with Buffalo favored. That 3-point swing from BUF -1.5 to BUF +1.5 happened over just two days (Jan 12-13), signaling serious sharp action on the Broncos.

The total has also moved down from its opening number of 47 to the current 45.5. Some books are showing 46, but most have landed on 45.5 with standard juice on both sides.

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Odds as of Jan. 17 at consensus NFL betting apps. Shop the best sportsbook promos before wagering on the Divisional Round.

Per the NFL public betting trends, the public is heavily backing Buffalo despite the line movement. 77.63% of the moneyline handle is on the Bills, while 67.27% of the spread money is on Buffalo +1.5. The total is seeing 71.34% of the money on the over 45.5.

So while the sharps pushed Denver from underdog to favorite, the public is still riding with Josh Allen and a higher-scoring game. I’m with the public on the Bills moneyline but against them on the total.