By Brady Trettenero in NHL Hockey
Published:
It’s a generational clash at Rogers Place tonight as Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins (24-14-11, 13-7-4 away) visit Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers (25-18-8, 12-6-4 home). This East meets West showdown has major playoff implications for both squads, with the Pens sitting second in the Metro and Edmonton second in the Pacific.
Pittsburgh enters riding a five-game point streak and fresh off a 4-1 road victory in Calgary last night. The Oilers, meanwhile, are coming off a frustrating 2-1 loss to New Jersey on Tuesday, a game in which they didn’t have Leon Draisaitl.
Puck drop is set for 9:00 pm ET from Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, with ESPN+, SportsNet Pittsburgh, and Sportsnet West providing the coverage.
Here are my Penguins vs Oilers prediction and picks, along with the latest NHL odds.
My Penguins vs Oilers prediction is focused on the under. Pittsburgh played last night in Calgary, and while they won convincingly, tired legs against a rested Oilers squad is a real factor. The Penguins have been exceptional defensively even without their top two defensemen, holding Calgary to just 19 shots on goal Wednesday.
Looking at the advanced metrics from the last 10 games, the Penguins have been the better possession team, posting a 53.48 corsi percentage compared to Edmonton’s 50.67. Pittsburgh knows how to control the puck and limit high-danger chances, which matters in a back-to-back situation.
Draisaitl won’t play again tonight as he’s in Germany dealing with a family health matter. That’s 42 assists and 25 goals sitting on the sidelines. McDavid is still McDavid, but losing the second superstar changes the dynamic considerably on both the powerplay and at 5-on-5.
The goaltending matchup also favors a lower-scoring affair. Tristan Jarry gets the start for Edmonton in an emotional revenge game against his former team. Jarry’s posted a .958 save percentage over his last two starts, stopping 46 of 48 shots. His familiarity with the Penguins – their shooting lanes, Crosby’s tendencies, Malkin’s moves – is an advantage.
Arturs Silovs gets the nod for Pittsburgh on the second half of the back-to-back. His numbers aren’t spectacular (3.05 GAA, .892 SV%), but the Penguins’ defensive structure was excellent in Calgary. If Pittsburgh brings that same commitment, Silovs has a chance to keep this game low scoring.
Special teams could be the difference. Edmonton has the league’s best powerplay at 32.6%, while Pittsburgh’s penalty kill is solid at 83.2%. If the Pens stay disciplined and avoid giving Edmonton too many man advantages, this game should stay tight. Pittsburgh ranks among the least penalized teams in the league.
McDavid just had his 17-game point streak snapped Tuesday and should come out aggressive. The captain has exceeded 3.5 shots in 13 consecutive home games when Edmonton is favored, averaging 5.8 shots during that stretch.
With Pittsburgh missing Karlsson and possibly Letang on defense, McDavid should have room to operate. The Penguins’ makeshift blue line allowed 30 shots to Calgary last night, and a rested McDavid should generate plenty of volume.
Jarry has the edge on paper and faces his former team for the first time since being traded to Edmonton in December. Silovs has struggled at times this season, but Pittsburgh’s defensive commitment in front of him should keep the scoring down.
The Oilers are -172 moneyline favorites at home, which translates to an implied win probability of 63.2%. Pittsburgh comes back as +142 underdogs. The puck line has Edmonton laying 1.5 goals at +142, while the total sits at 6.5 with the under juiced to -120.
The moneyline has shortened from opening lines near -195, suggesting sharp money on Pittsburgh. The under at -120 offers solid value given all the factors pointing toward a defensive battle.
Updated odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Jan. 22.
Forwards
Rickard Rakell – Sidney Crosby – Bryan Rust
Yegor Chinakhov – Thomas Novak – Evgeni Malkin
Anthony Mantha – Ben Kindel – Justin Brazeau
Connor Dewar – Blake Lizotte – Noel Acciari
Defense
Parker Wotherspoon – Brett Kulak
Ryan Shea – Jack St. Ivany
Ryan Graves – Connor Clifton
Goaltenders
Arturs Silovs
Stuart Skinner
Injuries: Erik Karlsson (lower body), Kris Letang (upper body, game-time decision), Filip Hallander (leg), Tanner Howe (ACL)
Forwards
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Zach Hyman
Isaac Howard – Jack Roslovic – Matt Savoie
Mattias Janmark – Curtis Lazar – Andrew Mangiapane
Vasily Podkolzin – Trent Frederic
Defense
Mattias Ekholm – Evan Bouchard
Darnell Nurse – Ty Emberson
Jake Walman – Spencer Stastney
Goaltenders
Tristan Jarry
Connor Ingram
Injuries: Leon Draisaitl (personal), Adam Henrique (upper body, IR), Kasperi Kapanen (lower body)
The season numbers are fairly even between these two squads. Pittsburgh has been the better defensive team, ranking 7th in goals against compared to Edmonton’s 13th. The Oilers have the edge offensively with the league’s best powerplay, but if the Penguins stay disciplined at 5-on-5, the under has value.
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Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
