Gaethje vs Pimblett Odds, Prediction, Tale of the Tape & Where to Watch UFC 324

• Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett fight for the interim lightweight title at UFC 324 on Saturday, January 24th
• Pimblett is a -235 favorite at BetMGM with Gaethje at +190
• Check out our Gaethje vs Pimblett prediction, odds and where to watch below

The Paramount era kicks off with a bang. Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett will fight for the interim lightweight title in the main event of UFC 324 this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Gaethje is looking for his second interim title after winning his first against Tony Ferguson at UFC 249. Pimblett is riding a seven-fight UFC winning streak and looking to prove he belongs at the top of the division.

Here are the Gaethje vs Pimblett odds, my prediction and where to watch UFC 324.

Gaethje vs Pimblett Odds

Pimblett opened around -185 and has been bet up to -235. The public is backing the Baddy with 72% of bets and 58% of the handle going his way. Gaethje sits at +190 with 28% of bets but 42% of the handle, which suggests some sharper money is coming in on the underdog.

The fight to go the distance is priced at +240 yes and -350 no. Oddsmakers expect a finish, and Pimblett by submission at +100 is where the market sees the most likely outcome.

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Odds as of January 23rd at BetMGM Sportsbook. Bet on UFC 324 tonight with a BetMGM promo code.

Gaethje vs Pimblett Prediction

Seeing Gaethje as nearly a 2-to-1 underdog is surprising given his resume. He’s fought for titles against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira. He knocked out Dustin Poirier. He went five rounds with Max Holloway before getting caught in the final second. This is a guy who belongs at the top of the division.

Pimblett has improved in every fight since joining the UFC. He ragdolled Michael Chandler and finished him with elbows in the third round. His grappling is legitimate, and he brings serious size to 155 pounds. But his defensive gaps are a concern against a puncher like Gaethje.

Gaethje’s left hook is live in this fight. His leg kicks can cripple Pimblett’s movement and force desperate entries. Pimblett keeps his chin in the air, and 25 minutes is a long time to avoid getting clipped.

The grappling is where Pimblett has the edge. He averages 1.68 submission attempts per 15 minutes and has 11 career submission wins. Gaethje has been submitted twice in his five losses. If Pimblett can drag him into scrambles and find the back, the choke could be there.

I think Pimblett’s size and grappling will be the difference. He’ll eat some damage early but eventually get Gaethje to the mat and find the submission late. But at +190, Gaethje is worth a look if you think his power can end this before the grappling takes over.

Gaethje vs Pimblett Pick:

• Paddy Pimblett by Submission (+100)

Gaethje vs Pimblett Tale of the Tape

Pimblett actually has the reach advantage at 73 inches to Gaethje’s 70. He’s also six years younger at 31 compared to Gaethje’s 37. The age and mileage on Gaethje is a real concern after all the wars he’s been through.

Gaethje lands more strikes per minute at 6.59 compared to Pimblett’s 5.19. He’s one of the highest-volume strikers in the division. But Pimblett’s submission numbers stand out at 1.68 attempts per 15 minutes. Gaethje has zero submission attempts in his UFC career.

Gaethje Recent Fights

• Win over Rafael Fiziev via decision – March 2025
• Loss to Max Holloway via KO (R5) – April 2024
• Win over Dustin Poirier via TKO (R2) – July 2023
• Win over Rafael Fiziev via decision – March 2023
• Loss to Charles Oliveira via submission (R1) – May 2022

Pimblett Recent Fights

• Win over Michael Chandler via TKO (R3) – April 2025
• Win over King Green via submission (R1) – July 2024
• Win over Tony Ferguson via decision – December 2023
• Win over Jared Gordon via decision – December 2022
• Win over Jordan Leavitt via submission (R2) – July 2022

Where to Watch UFC 324

UFC 324 marks the first UFC event on Paramount+. The entire card streams exclusively on Paramount+ with no traditional pay-per-view option. New subscribers can sign up for Paramount+ starting at $7.99 per month. Sign up for Paramount+ here.